UFC Vegas 20: Rozenstruik vs Gane – Prelims predictions

Part two of the UFC heavyweight main events in Vegas takes place this weekend as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane clash in the octagon in the Apex.

After a big card last weekend saw Derrick Lewis knockout Curtis Blaydes in the second round while Tom Aspinall, Chris Dauakaus and Serghei Spivac all picked up wins in the heavyweight division too, Gane looks to assert himself as the king of the new gen by moving to 8-0 against a man who was on a war path until recently.

Last week we went 6/12 for predictions with just two perfect picks, taking us to 236/371 (63.61%) with 106 (44.92%) perfect picks since starting in June 2020. We’ll look to improve that this weekend with a fun 12 fight card, starting with the seven prelim fights here.


EARLY PRELIMS

Dustin Jacoby (13-5) vs Maxim Grishin (31-8-2) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)
**Maxim Grishin weighed in 3.5lbs over the weight limit of 206lbs**

A fun light heavyweight clash to open the night between two fighters looking to make it back-to-back wins in the UFC. Jacoby won on the Contender Series back in August, before finishing Justin Ladet in October on his debut via leg kicks and punches. Grishin on the other hand tried his luck at heavyweight on his debut and got beaten by Marcin Tybura, but recovered at 205lbs with a knockout win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov on Fight Island.

Jacoby is a solid striker who had a few cardio issues during his Contender Series bout, but considering it was only his second MMA bout since 2015 you can probably make a case of exception. Grishin is a talented kickboxer with great conditioning and a huge experience advantage. It’s a pretty even contest and one that will likely go the distance, but considering the cardio issues in the past and the level of inactivity I think Grishin can sneak a decision win here.
PICK – Maxim Grishin via Decision

Vince Cachero (7-3) vs Ronnie Lawrence (6-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An intriguing fight between two guys looking for their first UFC wins as Cachero takes on Lawrence. Cachero was 1-2 in his last three LFA fights before taking a super-late notice fight with Jamall Emmers up in the featherweight division in August, being dominated to a wide decision defeat. Lawrence on the other hand got a dominant decision go his way on the Contender Series despite being a huge underdog.

Lawrence is a super talented wrestler, who has a gas tank for days and secured a dozen takedowns in his last fight. That doesn’t bode well with Cachero struggling in the past against people who are great wrestlers. That said, Cachero is a powerful striker and Lawrence sometimes throws lazy shots which could give him a chance to land some valuable strikes. Despite that, I think Lawrence is able to get the takedowns he wants and secures a decision win for a debut victory.
PICK – Ronnie Lawrence via Decision

PRELIMS

William Knight (9-1) vs Alonzo Menifield (9-2) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

This will be fireworks in the 205lbs division. William Knight is on a three-fight win streak currently, including his most recent win in his UFC debut against Aleksa Camur at UFC 253. Menifield on the other hand has lost his last two fights in the UFC, losing a decision to Devin Clark at UFC 250 before getting knocked out by Ovince Saint-Preux in September.

Knight’s striking isn’t the cleanest and his offensive wrestling isn’t the most impressive, but he uses his brute strength in clinch situations to get the fight down to the ground and then unleash violent ground and pound. Menifield is a bit more well rounded but seems to lack some cage IQ and struggles to make in-fight adjustments. He seemed shocked by the strength of OSP and if that’s the case, then Knight could blow him out of the water.

That said it’s a 50/50 fight between these two and I think the ground game of Knight and the fact he’s been to a judges decision before and won is a positive. It’s a solid match up and I think Knight just edges a good, competitive bout.
PICK – William Knight via Knockout, Round 2

Alexis Davis (19-10) vs Sabina Mazo (9-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A fight between two women at completely different points of their UFC careers in the women’s bantamweight division. Davis is a UFC veteran who has lost her last three fights by decision to Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo most recently back in 2019. Mazo on the other hand is on a three-fight win streak, beating Shana Dobson, JJ Aldrich and Justine Kish last time out in September 2020.

Davis is a solid grappler, even fighting her way to a title shot back in the day against Ronda Rousey. She has eight submission wins on her record, plus two knockouts too. Mazo is a fantastic kickboxer with some great wrestling defence and she has a decent ground game herself, winning her last fight by rear naked choke. The ‘Colombian Queen’ is only 23, but she’s super busy and has good footwork and I think she should be able to deny the takedowns and land enough on the feet to get a win.
PICK – Sabina Mazo via Decision

Alex Oliveira (22-9-1) vs Ramazan Kuramagomedov (8-0) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A highly anticipated short-notice debut for Kuramagomedov as he takes on the wily veteran ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira. Oliveira has lost four of his last six fights, including his most recent to Shavkat Rakhmonov via a first-round submission at UFC 254. Kuramagomedov got a win against Jordan Williams on the Contender Series back in 2019 but didn’t get signed, but has maintained his unbeaten record and now gets a big chance on five days’ notice.

Oliveira is a powerful striker but he has relatively low output in most bouts and likes to get top control to reserve his energy until the later rounds. Kuramagomedov is a versatile striker with a suffocating top game too, who focuses heavily on leg attacks to make the takedowns a bit easier. When someone fires back with lots of volume, like Williams did on the Contender Series, then his defence gets called into question. This fight is unlikely to go that way though, with the Russian able to outland on the feet with his volume and he’s the considerably better wrestler too.

Kuramagomedov should be able to get the win here, but you can never rule out Oliveira in a fight like this.
PICK – Ramazan Kuramagomedov via Decision

Alexander Hernandez (12-3) vs Thiago Moises (14-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A really exciting lightweight bout as the featured prelim in this one between two of the better prospects in the division. Hernandez started his UFC run with knockout wins over Beneil Dariush and Olivier Aubin-Mercier, before being stopped in his tracks by Donald Cerrone. His last fight was a knockout win over Chris Gruetzemacher in October. Moises is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with unbelievable grappling skills who has never been stopped in his career, winning his last two fights against Michael Johnson and Bobby Green in October.

Hernandez has all the tools to win here. He’s a powerful striker and loves to take the centre of the cage, with excellent wrestling defence and a fantastic gas tank. Moises struggles off his back foot and will look to get his hands on Hernandez to bring the fight down to the ground. If Hernandez stays aggressive like he has in all his UFC wins so far and fights on the front foot, he gets the win. Unfortunately, I don’t think he does so Moises should do enough for the victory.
PICK – Thiago Moises via Decision

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