UFC Vegas 20: Rozenstruik vs Gane – Main card predictions

Part two of the UFC heavyweight main events in Vegas takes place this weekend as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane clash in the octagon in the Apex.

After a big card last weekend saw Derrick Lewis knockout Curtis Blaydes in the second round while Tom Aspinall, Chris Dauakaus and Serghei Spivac all picked up wins in the heavyweight division too, Gane looks to assert himself as the king of the new gen by moving to 8-0 against a man who was on a war path until recently.

Last week we went 6/12 for predictions with just two perfect picks, taking us to 236/371 (63.61%) with 106 (44.92%) perfect picks since starting in June 2020. We’ll look to improve that this weekend with a fun 12 fight card and having already started with the prelim fights, we’ll preview the main card here.


MAIN CARD

Alex Caceres (17-12 1NC) vs Kevin Croom (21-12 1NC) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

One of the sleepers on the card in the featherweight division in a potential fight of the night here. Alex Caceres has won three in a row, beating Chase Hooper at UFC 250 before beating Austin Springer in August via submission in his two most recent outings. Croom on the other hand made a short-notice debut in the UFC and knocked out Roosevelt Roberts in just 31 seconds, only for NSAC to overturn the result when he tested positive for cannabis.

Caceres is an exciting fighter, who throws lots of spinning attacks and can fight from either stance while Croom is very much a kill-or-be-killed style fighter. Caceres is the better martial artist of the two, with better footwork, a better jab and better kicks but Croom has the power advantage and is more likely to get a finish. Despite that, I think Caceres is able to outlast Croom for the full 15 minutes but more likely is that Croom lands the more telling shots throughout and gets a finish.
PICK – Kevin Croom via Knockout, Round 2

Angela Hill (12-9) vs Ashley Yoder (8-6) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A rematch made on short notice in the women’s strawweight division. These two met back in 2017 in the TUF finale, with Hill getting a decision win. Fast forward to now, Hill fought four times in 2020 and went 2-2, with back-to-back defeats against Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson in controversial fashion. Yoder went 1-1 in 2020, losing to Livinha Souza at UFC 252 before bouncing back with a win over Miranda Granger in November.

Despite their close fight the first time around, I can’t see this one being as competitive. Hill is the better striker by a distance and has improved her ground game to a point where she can stuff the takedowns of some of the better wrestlers in the division and fight off her back and get back to her feet well. Yoder will try to get this fight to the ground to add to her four submission wins, but Hill is just too advanced now and should get a pretty comfortable win.
PICK – Angela Hill via Decision

Pedro Munhoz (18-5) vs Jimmie Rivera (23-4) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Probably the highest level fight on the card as Munhoz and Rivera meet in a rematch from back in 2015. Rivera won that one via split decision and has since gone on to have a great run in the UFC although he has lost three of his last five but won against Cody Stamann last time out. Munhoz has lost two in a row too, losing to Aljamain Sterling and Frankie Edgar most recently back in August.

Munhoz is a fantastic wrestler and has great power in his hands, similar to Gilbert Burns in the way that he’ll march forward and throw knowing he can grapple. Rivera is the more polished and better striker though and he has fantastic takedown defence too. If Munhoz can get the fight down then he should be able to ride out to a comfortable decision from top control, but the chances of him getting the takedown are slim. Rivera is incredibly experienced and has such an edge on the feet, plus a win over Munhoz already, that I think we see a repeat here.
PICK – Jimmie Rivera via Decision

Montana De La Rosa (11-6) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight clash between two unranked fighters looking to make their way into the top 15. De La Rosa got beaten by Andrea Lee back in 2019 before getting a win over Mara Romero Borella and then suffering a loss last time out to Viviane Araujo in September. Silva on the other hand lost her first fight of 2020 to Maryna Moroz before bouncing back with an impressive submission win over Romero Borella in September.

Both these women are impressive grapplers, with 13 submission wins combined in their careers. Silva has some decent boxing behind her too, coming out of the same camp that a certain Charles Oliveira trains at. Neither fighter will be keen to go to the ground with the other because of the submission threat, which means the striking becomes key. Silva has that advantage and she’s arguably got the better jiu-jitsu too, although De La Rosa has the better wrestling. It’s not the most confident pick, but Silva gets a decision win for me.
PICK – Mayra Bueno Silva via Decision

Nikita Krylov (27-7) vs Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A very, very fun fight at light heavyweight as Nikita Krylov steps into the octagon to take on Magomed Ankalaev. Krylov is only 28-years-old but has 34 professional fights to his name, alternating wins and losses in his last five going back to 2018. Ankalaev was literally one second away from a perfect 15-0 record, but was submitted at 4:59 of round three against Paul Craig back in 2018. He won his last two fights by knockout against Ion Cutelaba, with serious power in the rematch after a controversial first fight.

Krylov is a sensational grappler with good power in his hands, while Ankalaev is a fantastic striker with excellent takedown defence. Ankalaev’s footwork is high level, while he loves to throw a head kick in the same way Krylov does. It’s a really exciting match up that is evenly matched for the most part. Krylov has the edge on the ground but whether he can get it there is questionable, while on the feet Ankalaev has the edge but Krylov isn’t completely outclassed there.

It should be highly competitive but with Ankalaev’s power advantage on the feet, I think the Russian can get it done.
PICK – Magomed Ankalaev via Knockout, Round 3

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1) vs Ciryl Gane (7-0) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

The big boys headline the card once again as two heavy hitters go toe-to-toe in the main event. Rozenstruik went 10-0 in the UFC before getting absolutely run over by Francis Ngannou at UFC 249 but he bounced back with a knockout win over Junior Dos Santos at UFC 252. Gane however has a perfect record of 7-0 and got his own knockout win over JDS at UFC 256.

The blueprint to beat Rozenstruik is there, despite the fact he got the win, from the fight against Alistair Overeem. He has unbelievable power as he showed to win that Overeem fight, but a top kickboxer is able to keep distance and land big on him. Gane has the ability to do all that, but also can take the fight to the mat and bust out some of his excellent submission skills too. Gane doesn’t have Ngannou power, but he does train with him on a regular basis and they will be perfectly prepared for Rozenstruik’s style.

While I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rozenstruik land a killer shot that puts Gane away because his power is that insane, I think Gane is the more well rounded martial artist, has the speed and footwork advantage and I think he gets a huge win to break into the top five.
PICK – Ciryl Gane via Decision

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