The UFC heads to Long Island for a fight night event with a live crowd, as two featherweight contenders go head-to-head in the main event when Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.
A very solid card will see plenty of excellent fights, with the 145-pound eliminator bout right at the top of the card. We’ll also see the likes of Li Jingliang, Michelle Waterson, Jack Shore, Shane Burgos and Miesha Tate.
Last time out at UFC Vegas 58 we went 7/11 with two perfect picks, moving us to 656/1020 (64.31%) with 281 perfect picks (42.84%). You can check out our full picks history here.
We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we pick the rest of the prelims here.
Bill Algeo (15-6) vs Herbert Burns (11-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)
A fight put together on short notice after both of their opponents fell out last week. Algeo has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights, claiming a win over Joanderson Brito most recently at UFC Vegas 46. Burns on the other hand saw a five-fight win streak snapped last time out, getting KO’d by Daniel Pineda at UFC 252. This is his first fight in almost two years.
Algeo is a wild striker who has volume, speed and power and tends to put on entertaining fights without even trying just because that’s where he thrives. Burns on the other hand is a big featherweight who has okay striking, but his jiu-jitsu is world class and a whole other level to most 145-pounders in the world. That’s a problem for Algeo.
Everyone who has ever tried to take Algeo down in a fight has succeeded at some point, and while he did well against Ricardo Ramos on the ground to avoid danger that isn’t Burns. Burns’ cardio is a problem because of his weight cut so anything past the first round could be an issue with Algeo’s volume. But if he gets the fight to the ground with enough time to work, he will eventually find Algeo’s neck. It’s tough to call, but Algeo’s ability to go for three rounds means I lean towards him getting the win.
PICK – Bill Algeo via Decision
Ricky Simon (19-3) vs Jack Shore (16-0) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)
Arguably the fight of the night outside of the main event, and somehow it’s on the prelims of this card. Simon is on a four-fight win streak, KO’ing Raphael Assuncao in his most recent fight back in December. Shore is an undefeated fighter who has gone 5-0 in the UFC, with an entertaining back and forth fight ending in a decision win over Timur Valiev at UFC London back in March.
Simon is a pure wrestler, with great forward pressure before changing levels and looking to chain takedowns together to dominate on the ground. He has excellent control and ground and pound abilities, and is a decent submission threat too. Shore on the other hand is a really well-rounded fighter who prefers to strike but can more than hold his own in the grappling. Stylistically this is a very similar fight to Shore vs Valiev.
Simon definitely has the wrestling advantage and will have no problem going to the well over and over again to find success, but his chin has been shaky in the past. Shore isn’t a monster striker by any means, but he’s accurate and has enough about him to have earned four KO’s in his career on top of eight submission wins. It will be highly entertaining and I expect the same result as London, with Shore’s power punches enough to catch the eye.
PICK – Jack Shore via Decision
Punahele Soriano (8-2) vs Dalcha Lungiambula (11-4) – (Middleweight/185lbs)
A banger between two heavy handed middleweights in this one. Soriano has lost each of his last two, dropping decisions to Brendan Allen and Nick Maximov, while Lungiambula has lost three of his last four including his last two after losing on the cards to Marc-Andre Barriault before being submitted by Cody Brundage last time out.
Soriano is a solid wrestler with a power left hand, but his overall skillset is pretty predictable. He’s as durable as anyone in the division, while he mixes up his attacks well but the level isn’t that high. For Lungiambula, something just isn’t clicking. He’s got immense judo, great athleticism and is a powerhouse but just simply can’t put it all together. His cardio tends to fail him too and with his boxing so poor, it makes this a really tough match up for him.
He can’t out-grapple Soriano, he’s unlikely to be able to outbox him and if they go power shots heavy then his cardio will let him down. I expect the mix of attacks from Soriano to be able to hold out for the full 15 minutes and eventually he should be able to land that big left hand to really hurt Lungiambula and collect a stoppage win for the eighth time in his career.
PICK – Punahele Soriano via Knockout, Round 3
Tap Ins & Tap Outs 
One thought on “UFC Long Island: Ortega vs Rodriguez – Prelims predictions”