The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas for the TUF 30 finale card, headlined by light heavyweight bangers.
Thiago Santos will take on Jamahal Hill looking for a place in the top five of the rankings at 205-pounds in the main event, while Vicente Luque will also fight Geoff Neal in the co-main event.
The TUF finale also takes place as the heavyweights Mohammed Usman, brother of Kamaru, takes on Zac Pauga while the women’s flyweights will see Brogan Walker take on Julianna Miller.
Last time out at UFC 277 we went 10/13 with two perfect picks to move to 683/1059 (64.49%) with 291 perfect picks (42.61%). You can see our full pick history here.
We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.
Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1) vs Stephanie Egger (7-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)
An interesting women’s bantamweight fight to kick off the card. Silva got back in the win column last time out with a decision victory over Yanan Wu back in April, while Egger has won her last two with a TKO win over Shanna Young before an armbar submission win over Jessica-Rose Clark last time out.
Silva is a solid grappler with great jiu-jitsu skills, but she tends to choose to strike in her fights and comes forward with good pressure and boxing combinations. Egger on the other hand is a stand-out judoka who is excellent with her throws, but also uses her range and stance to land strikes from range if needed. Neither of these girls are particularly known for their power, but it could be a real slug fest on the feet to kick off the event.
Egger will no doubt look to keep Silva at distance or take her down for her top control if she gets within range, but Silva is a newly-awarded brown belt in jiu-jitsu and will be confident of keeping the fight where she wants it. Expect her to march forward and land good combinations and make it an uncomfortable night for Egger to claim a decision win.
PICK – Mayra Bueno Silva via Decision
Cory McKenna (6-2) vs Miranda Granger (7-2) – (Strawweight/115lbs)
Another fun women’s fight up next in the strawweight division this time. McKenna suffered defeat in her last bout, dropping a split decision to Elise Reed to snap a four-fight win streak. Granger meanwhile has lost her last two coming into this, getting submitted by Amanda Lemos before dropping a decision to Ashley Yoder at UFC Vegas 14. This is her first fight since November 2020.
McKenna and Granger are pretty green despite their records, but stylistically they couldn’t be more opposite. McKenna is a wrestler at heart with solid takedowns and pretty tame striking, while Granger is a lengthy striker with a good clinch game but woeful takedown defence. This is simply about whether or not Granger has improved that enough to stop McKenna dumping her on the mat over and over again.
If she has been able to improve and do that, then she should be able to keep range and piece McKenna up with straight shots and kicks. If not, then she’ll get ground out by an undersized fighter for 15 minutes with little answer. My expectation is the latter takes place in a less than memorable fight.
PICK – Cory McKenna via Decision
Jason Witt (19-8) vs Josh Quinlan (5-0) – (Welterweight/170lbs)
Big time fire-fight in the welterweight division up next. Witt has lost two of his last three via KO, getting stopped in 16 seconds by Matthew Semelsberger at UFC Vegas 21 and then by Phillip Rowe in February. He earned a majority decision win over Bryan Barbarena in between those fights. Quinlan is an undefeated fighter who has finished all his wins, including a 47 second KO on the Contender Series last time out that got switched to a no contest for a positive drug test.
Witt is a strong wrestler who has good takedowns and solid top control, but has a leaky chin and has been KO’d six times in his professional career to date. Quinlan is a power puncher with excellent Muay Thai skills, but has shown a difficulty in fighting when being pressured backwards in the past. That said though, this looks set up for a Quinlan victory.
“The Renegade” is powerful, fast, strong and accurate which will be way too much for Witt. Quinlan is capable of being taken down, but he’s also more than capable of getting back to his feet and any extended sequence of striking will likely end with Witt staring up at the lights. Expect a statement win from the newcomer with a violent combination.
PICK – Josh Quinlan via Knockout, Round 1