All posts by Daniel Feliciano

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 – Main card predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns with yet another banger of a title fight rematch at UFC 287 when Alex Pereira defends his middleweight title for the first time against long-time rival Israel Adesanya in the main event.

This will be the fourth time these two have met in a fight, with Pereira winning each of the previous three but Adesanya running him super close every time.

We’ll also see Gilbert Burns fight Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, while we’ll also see the likes of Kevin Holland, Raul Rosas Jr, Adrian Yanez, Rob Font, Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Curtis fighting on the card.

Last time out at UFC San Antonio we got the main event pick correct with Cory Sandhagen beating Marlon Vera, although it wasn’t a perfect pick. You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve our overall record here and after starting with the early prelims then moving on to the rest of the prelims, we head to the main card now.

Raul Rosas Jr (7-0) vs Christian Rodriguez (8-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

The youngest fighter in UFC history lived up to the hype last time out and he’s back on a pay-per-view main card next. Rosas Jr stepped into the octagon as a 17-year-old and submitted Jay Perrin in the first round, making it five wins via tap out in seven career bouts. Rodriguez on the other hand suffered the only loss of his career in his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce, but bounced back with a submission win over Joshua Weems last time out in October 2022.

Rosas Jr is a ridiculous talent with fantastic wrestling and a nasty Brazilian jiu-jitsu game to go with his massive frame for 135-pounds. Rodriguez is a kickboxer with a wrestling background and good jiu-jitsu skills of his own to make this a very interesting fight on paper. Rosas Jr is big for the division, but he tends to be quite aggressive and with Rodriguez’s skills he could make him pay for the smallest mistakes by taking his neck or being more patient when it comes to the striking.

But with that said, Rosas Jr is a stud of an athlete despite his age and he has been able to show great composure and skill on the biggest stages so far. It won’t be nearly as quick or lopsided as his debut, but Rosas is a good enough grappler to get a takedown and control the fight for the rest of that round to secure a win on the scorecards.
PICK – Raul Rosas Jr via Decision

Kevin Holland (23-9) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-6) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A super fun welterweight scrap up next between two fan-friendly styles. Holland is 2-2 in his last four, with wins over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means before back-to-back defeats against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson most recently. Ponzinibbio on the other hand snapped a two-fight losing streak to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira by knocking out Alex Morono to come from behind in his last outing.

Holland is a very well-rounded fighter with fantastic striking and good knockout power to go with solid grappling and jiu-jitsu skills, although he struggles when it comes to the wrestling both offensively and defensively. Ponzinibbio is a straight up striker with fantastic power in his hands and kicks, and some good takedown defence in his back pocket to boot. This one is going to be very, very fun.

Ponzinibbio was one of the most feared welterweights around before a two-year layoff saw him come back as a very different fighter. Holland is so active and has shown he can hang with the best, while his chin has held up against some real power punchers too. It’s going to be fun, but expect Holland to land the bigger shots and eventually stun Ponzinibbio with a counter before launching on his neck and taking a win on the mat.
PICK – Kevin Holland via Submission, Round 2

Rob Font (19-6) vs Adrian Yanez (16-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An absolutely amazing fight for the fans up next at bantamweight. Font had won four-in-a-row before dropping his last two against Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera by decision. Yanez is 5-0 in the UFC with four knockouts, including a first-round stoppage over Tony Kelley most recently. He’s now on a nine-fight win streak.

Font is a fantastic boxer with great speed and combinations, and he showed in his most recent win over Cody Garbrandt that he is also a more than competent wrestler too when he needs to mix things up. Yanez is also a super boxer with fantastic combinations and power, while his takedown defence has passed the test every time it’s been called upon. This is going to be a straight up banger between two studs.

Yanez is the favourite heading into this, but Font is far and away the best fighter he has ever come up against. His ability to box with Yanez shouldn’t be overlooked, but the ability to mix in his wrestling and his strong low kicks can disrupt the rhythm of the younger fighter. I absolutely love Yanez, but Font is no pushover and I think the veteran claims an entertaining win in the fight of the night on the cards.
PICK – Rob Font via Decision

Gilbert Burns (21-5) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-16) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Welterweight contender bout up next between two hugely popular stars. Burns is 2-2 in his last four having been beaten by Kamaru Usman in a title fight and then losing a razor close decision to Khamzat Chimaev, while he has dominated Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny most recently via a first-round arm triangle submission. Masvidal on the other hand has lost his last three, losing to Usman twice in two title fights before being controlled by Colby Covington most recently over a year ago.

Burns is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard with incredible submission skills, but he has also got hugely improved striking and fantastic power in his hands to go with it. Masvidal is a terrific kickboxer with super boxing skills and a nasty body kick, while his wrestling defence and submission defence have been fairly good in his career. This is arguably the last chance for two legends to make a title run.

Masvidal’s best hope of winning this fight is keeping it standing and getting into a striking battle with Burns. But Burns is no pushover in the stand up exchanges and he has the ability to force Masvidal to the ground with his wrestling and grappling skills. “Gamebred” has the one-punch power most fighters dream of, but Burns is very good at staying safe and also has a granite chin so I expect him to get Masvidal down and control him for 15 minutes to claim the win in Miami.
PICK – Gilbert Burns via Decision

Alex Pereira (7-1) vs Israel Adesanya (23-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A banger in the middleweight division as we find out who the better man is between these two once and for all (maybe?). Pereira is undefeated in the UFC after KO’ing Andreas Michailidis, Sean Strickland and Adesanya last time out, while he also has a decision win over Bruno Silva. Adesanya is one of the best middleweights ever, with his defeat to Pereira last time out ending a 12-fight win streak in the division in the UFC.

Both of these guys are long time kickboxers at a world class level, and both have transitioned exceptionally to MMA with those skills. Adesanya is the more experienced fighter and has shown some more grappling skills than his opponent, and he may need to use that in this fight to finally get one over on his long time rival. The bouts they’ve had previously have seen Adesanya winning until late on when the power of Pereira caught up.

That means Adesanya knows he can hang with him, and by mixing in more takedowns and making Pereira grapple with him throughout the opening 20 minutes it’s likely to wear on him more for that final round where he has proved so dangerous. “The Last Stylebender” is the better fighter in my mind despite the results of their previous bouts and I think he finally gets it done this time around on the scorecards to win his title back and set up a UFC trilogy later in 2023.
PICK – Israel Adesanya via Decision

ufc 287: pereira vs adesanya 2 – prelims predictions
Advertisement
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns with yet another banger of a title fight rematch at UFC 287 when Alex Pereira defends his middleweight title for the first time against long-time rival Israel Adesanya in the main event.

This will be the fourth time these two have met in a fight, with Pereira winning each of the previous three but Adesanya running him super close every time.

We’ll also see Gilbert Burns fight Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, while we’ll also see the likes of Kevin Holland, Raul Rosas Jr, Adrian Yanez, Rob Font, Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Curtis fighting on the card.

Last time out at UFC San Antonio we got the main event pick correct with Cory Sandhagen beating Marlon Vera, although it wasn’t a perfect pick. You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve our overall record here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims now.

Karl Williams (8-1) vs Chase Sherman (16-11) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Heavyweights take to the cage next. Williams made his UFC debut last month and claimed a win over Lukasz Brzeski on the cards, while Sherman has lost five of his last six fights, with a decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta most recently in November 2022. Williams steps in on short notice to replace Chris Barnett.

Williams is a big heavyweight at 6ft 3 with fantastic wrestling skills and the cardio to go with it. He also has good hand speed and power, although his striking is certainly his weak point. Sherman is a traditional heavyweight with some big haymakers and a decent leg kick, but pretty poor takedown defence and that’s a big issue for him here. Hi defeats to Alexandr Romanov and Jake Collier showed that he really struggles with persistent wrestlers, and that’s what Williams does brilliantly.

If Williams can implement the same game plan he did last month, then he should win this fight. His hand speed will make Sherman think twice in the striking exchanges, which will open up the takedowns for Williams to control him and claim a dominant win.
PICK – Karl Williams via Decision

Gerald Meerschaert (35-15) vs Joe Pyfer (10-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Veteran vs hype train up next in the middleweight division. Meerschaert has won four of his last five fights in the UFC, with a stunning submission win over Bruno Silva last time out back in August. Pyfer has burst onto the scene with three wins in a row via knockout, including Alen Amedovski in his full UFC debut last time out.

Meerschaert is a stunning grappler with insanely good durability and submission skills, as shown by his 27 career wins by tap out. His boxing isn’t the best though and he can be clipped, as his three KO defeats show. Pyfer is a heavy-handed scrapper with solid fundamentals and good wrestling, but often he gets a bit carried away and can find himself huffing and puffing as the fight goes on. He has the skills to win this fight, but Meerschaert is no pushover.

GM3 has halted many a hype train and he knows how to stay safe until an opening shows itself before he takes advantage. However, relying on someone who is very skilled to make a mistake as your chance to win isn’t something that we can back. He could well get the win, but expect Pyfer to mix in his wrestling with his heavy hands to claim a decision victory with the judges in a statement win.
PICK – Joe Pyfer via Decision

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-10) vs Luana Pinheiro (10-1) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A very fun strawweight scrap up next between a veteran and an upcoming star in the division. Waterson-Gomez has lost four of her last five, with a controversial win over Angela Hill sandwiched between losses to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. Pinheiro on the other hand is on an eight-fight win streak including both of her UFC bouts so far, where she beat Randa Markos via DQ and Sam Hughes most recently in November.

Waterson-Gomez is a talented karate style fighter who is also a good wrestler and has decent submission skills to boot. Pinheiro is a really complete fighter with heavy hands, good kicks, excellent takedowns, solid submissions and great judo to go with it. Generally the Brazilian has the edge everywhere here and it seems like a bit of a set up fight for her.

Pinheiro has the judo skills to take this fight down and dominate, and she has the size and power advantage on the feet to control the striking exchanges if she performs to her best. Waterson-Gomez needs to use her speed and movement to work a volume-heavy attack to tip the judges in her favour, but it seems highly unlikely that this goes anywhere other than in Pinheiro’s win column.
PICK – Luana Pinheiro via Decision

Chris Curtis (30-9) vs Kelvin Gastelum (17-8) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A banger at middleweight up next between two fan favourites on the roster. Curtis has won nine of his last 10 fights, including four of five in the UFC. He KO’d Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen before a decision win over Rodolfo Vieira was followed up by a decision loss to Jack Hermansson. He bounced back with a big KO win over Joaquin Buckley last time out. Gastelum has lost five of his last six including the last two in a row to Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier.

Curtis is an undersized middleweight with fantastic boxing skills and great power in his hands, to go with his granite chin and solid cardio. Gastelum is known for his chin and powerful left hand, while he also has decent wrestling skills too but he hasn’t fought in 20 months after suffering with injuries. This is a real coin toss of a fight.

Gastelum’s losses have come regularly in recent times, but they have come against top level opposition and the one time he fought someone he was expected to beat (Ian Heinisch) he did so comfortably. Curtis is probably fighting at his maximum level right now and Gastelum has fought at a far higher level than that. I won’t be surprised either way, but I think Gastelum can go with him for the full 15 to claim a win on the scorecards in a razor close yet entertaining fight.
PICK – Kelvin Gastelum via Decision

ufc 287: pereira vs adesanya 2 – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns with yet another banger of a title fight rematch at UFC 287 when Alex Pereira defends his middleweight title for the first time against long-time rival Israel Adesanya in the main event.

This will be the fourth time these two have met in a fight, with Pereira winning each of the previous three but Adesanya running him super close every time.

We’ll also see Gilbert Burns fight Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, while we’ll also see the likes of Kevin Holland, Raul Rosas Jr, Adrian Yanez, Rob Font, Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Curtis fighting on the card.

Last time out at UFC San Antonio we got the main event pick correct with Cory Sandhagen beating Marlon Vera, although it wasn’t a perfect pick. You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve our overall record here, starting with the early prelims.

Jaqueline Amorim (6-0) vs Sam Hughes (7-5) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An interesting strawweight bout to open up the card. Amorim is an undefeated fighter making her UFC debut, having won all six of her previous bouts via stoppage (5 submissions, 1 knockout). Hughes on the other hand saw her two-fight winning streak halted by Piera Rodriguez last time out via unanimous decision.

Amorim is a stunning submission artist, with medals at the world championships for Brazilian jiu-jitsu, with strong takedowns but poor striking. Hughes is a wrestler with strong takedowns too, and decent striking on the feet, but her takedown defence is a massive hole in her game. There is every chance that Hughes keeps this fight standing and brawls her way to a win because she has the advantage on the feet and with power.

But we’ve seen Hughes really struggle in the past with takedown defence, and while Amorim isn’t the greatest takedown artist she should have enough to get it down once. If she does that, her submission skills are so advanced that I doubt it gets out of the round to make it seven straight first-round finishes to open her career.
PICK – Jaqueline Amorim via Submission, Round 1

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10) vs Steve Garcia (13-5) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Featherweight scrap between two veterans in this one. Nuerdanbieke is on a three-fight win streak heading into this one, earning decisions over Sean Soriano and TJ Brown before a first-round knockout win over Darrick Minner. Garcia on the other hand is 2-1 in his last three, KO’ing Charlie Ontiveros and Chase Hooper with a KO loss to Maheshate sandwiched between those bouts.

Nuerdanbieke is an excellent grappler with really strong wrestling takedowns and good movement on the feet to keep his opponents honest in the stand up exchanges. Garcia on the other hand is a power puncher with a lot of aggression. His takedown defence hasn’t been the best in his career, and with his tendency to plant his feet and throw bombs that opens up the takedown for Nuerdanbieke.

If Garcia lands flush early, he has every chance of putting Nuerdanbieke down. But on the balance of probability, expect “Wolverine” to be able to get enough top control racked up over the 15 minutes to claim a win on the scorecards.
PICK – Shayilan Nuerdanbieke via Decision

Ignacio Bahamondes (13-4) vs Trey Ogden (16-5) – (Catchweight/160lbs)

Banger up next at a catchweight between two very interesting fighters. Bahamondes has won his last two in a row, destroying Roosevelt Roberts via spinning wheel kick with five seconds remaining before submitting Zhu Rong last time out over a year ago. Ogden has won four of his last five, but is 1-1 in the UFC after losing his debut to Jordan Leavitt before beating Daniel Zellhuber last time out. Ogden steps into this fight on two weeks’ notice to replace the injured Nikolas Motta.

Bahamondes is a fantastic kickboxer with great size and power, to go with some solid grappling and takedown defence. He’s also got superb kicking as shown in his two wins in the UFC. Ogden on the other hand is a wrestler with great grappling skills and good takedowns, but his striking is shaky and his volume isn’t the greatest either. That’s a big problem against someone like “La Jaula”.

The Chilean fighter is likely to walk forward and kick a lot, crowding Ogden to prevent takedowns and use his excellent cardio to wear on him. He has the power advantage and is by far the better striker of the two. His takedown defence should be able to hold up against Ogden too, so he will pour the pressure on and attack the body to claim another late stoppage.
PICK – Ignacio Bahamondes via Knockout, Round 2

Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) vs Lupita Godinez (8-3) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A fun strawweight bout up next with Calvillo battling to save her UFC career. She has lost each of her last four fights, dropping decisions to Katyln Chookagian and Nina Nunes while being stopped by Jessica Andrade and Andrea Lee. Godinez on the other hand saw a two-fight win streak snapped by Angel Hill last timeout, after beating Loma Lookboonmee and Ariane Carnelossi via decision.

Calvillo is a solid wrestler with great takedowns and okay striking, but she had a really tough time after moving up to flyweight with size. She’s now coming back down, and her strengths should be on show more. But she’ll be facing Godinez, who is a fantastic grappler while also possessing really strong boxing and some solid cardio. On paper Godinez should win this based on their recent performances.

But fighting doesn’t happen on paper and Calvillo has the wrestling to control Godinez from top position. Godinez has a horrible habit of fighting where the opponent is at their best, and while she’s a solid wrestler too Calvillo will have a size advantage and that could help her to claim an upset win and get back in the W column for the first time since June 2020.
PICK – Cynthia Calvillo via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC San Antonio: Vera vs Sandhagen – Fight predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to San Antonio, Texas after a trip to London last weekend for a major bantamweight bout between Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen.

Both fighters are right in the mix when it comes to title contention at 135-pounds, and know that a victory could potentially set them up for a title fight in a stacked division.

Last time out at UFC 286 we went 9/14 with four perfect picks (draws don’t count) to move to 858/1327 (64.66%) with 352 perfect picks (41.03). We also correctly predicted the main event of UFC Las Vegas prior to that perfectly. You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here with this main event fight.

Recent fight history

Marlon Vera has been on a collision course for the title in recent years, and he’s finally edging towards getting that shot.

‘Chito’ has won five of his last six, including a TKO win over number one contender Sean O’Malley, and stoppage wins against Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz. He also beat Davey Grant and Rob Font, with his only loss in that time coming on the scorecards against Jose Aldo.

Sandhagen’s form hasn’t been nearly as good coming into this, but circumstances have hurt him a lot.

‘Sandman’ is 3-3 in his last six, but those defeats have come to current champion Aljamain Sterling, controversially to TJ Dillashaw in a split decision and then in a super-competitive outing with Petr Yan for the interim title by decision again.

His wins in that time however have been spectacular, claiming stoppages against Marlon Moraes, Frankie Edgar and most recently Song Yadong.

Fight styles

Vera is a stud, with a finger in the pie of every discipline seemingly because he’s so good everywhere.

The Ecuadorian fighter has got sensational low kicks to go with an all-round excellent kicking game, while he also carries good power in his hands and has solid footwork and cage control.

When it comes to grappling he’s no slouch either, claiming eight submission wins in his career although the last of those came way back in 2019.

Sandhagen on the other hand is strictly a striker, with sensational range and size for this division.

His hands are lightning quick and accurate too, while he also poses a threat with his kickboxing, spinning techniques and flying knees because of his size.

His takedown defence has improved tremendously over the years since that defeat to Sterling, as he showed against Yan, but the grappling department is still a weakness for him if his opponent is able to hold him down.

This fight is most likely to take place on the feet for the majority of the 25 minutes it’s scheduled for, and with the way he uses his reach that bodes well for Sandhagen.

Prediction

These are two of my favourite fighters to watch in the bantamweight division and there is simply no way this is going to be a bad fight.

Both guys will be aggressive and look for finishes, but they will be calculated and not take unnecessary risks so it may be a case of who blinks first in the striking realm.

Vera has the edge with his grappling and if he chooses to use that a lot in this fight the Sandhagen may have a problem despite his qualities in the scramble.

This is as close to a 50/50 fight as I can remember in this division, moreso than Yan vs Merab a few weeks ago because of Merab’s crazy grappling skills.

My gut tells me that Sandhagen gets it done, however. He’s been in this position before at the top of the division and the performances he turned in didn’t deserve defeats in all honesty.

Vera though is flowing with confidence and ability and it does feel like destiny has it in his favour. It’s a really hard one to call.

I won’t be surprised either way, but I think the explosiveness of Sandhagen plus the way he uses his reach gets him a razor close decision victory in a barn-burner of a fight.

PICK – Cory Sandhagen via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Main card predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here and then moving on to the rest of the prelims here, we move on to the main card now.

Marvin Vettori (18-6-1) vs Roman Dolidze (12-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Interesting middleweight scrap between two guys looking to get into title contention at some point in 2023. Vettori has lost two of his last three fights, dropping decisions against Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, with a dominant win over Paulo Costa in the middle of them. Dolidze has gone on a run since switching to middleweight and is on a four-fight win streak with KO’s in each of his last three against Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson.

Vettori is the ultimate grinder when it comes to wrestle-boxing, with a crazy gas tank and excellent takedowns to go with great pressure and some powerful striking on the feet. Dolidze is also a grappler who has got excellent wrestling, but he’s recently discovered new power in his hands and is starting to fall in love with his striking. Realistically though, that striking is the main reason he could win this.

Dolidze has the power to put anyone out, but Vettori has got one of the better chins in the division and he’s one of the bigger middleweights in the division too. Expect pressure to force Dolidze backwards and big blitzes against the cage while mixing in takedowns and top control to earn a big decision win and keep his title aspirations alive.
PICK – Marvin Vettori via Decision

Jennifer Maia (20-9-1) vs Casey O’Neill (9-0) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A fun flyweight fight up next for the women, where a new contender could be created. Maia has lost three of her last five, dropping decisions to Valentina Shevchenko, Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot while she claimed wins over Jessica Eye and most recently Maryna Moroz. O’Neill is undefeated and shining in the UFC, with a win over Roxanne Modafferi over a year ago last time out via decision which ended a four-fight finishing streak.

Maia is a a grappler, living up to the surname despite no relation to Demian, with excellent jiu-jitsu skills to go with some decent boxing. O’Neill on the other hand is a bit of a phenom with solid wrestling to go with powerful kickboxing skills and a rare finishing instinct among female fighters. If she wants to win this, her best and safest bet is to be on top controlling the position because Maia does have power.

She’ll be severely tested in this fight and this is the best opponent she has had, but O’Neill is a future champion in my eyes and I can see her overcoming this test in an impressive fashion on the scorecards.
PICK – Casey O’Neill via Decision

Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1) vs Bryan Barbarena (18-9) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A fan-friendly scrap next in the welterweight division. Nelson has lost two of his last three fights, but they’ve come over a span of four years, with losses to Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns in 2019 before a return to the win column last time out against Takashi Sato in 2022. Barbarena was on a three-fight win streak including a TKO win against Robbie Lawler before he ran into Rafael Dos Anjos last time out and got submitted back in December.

Nelson is a fantastic grappler with a karate-like style when it comes to striking. His jiu-jitsu is fantastic and his wrestling to get it there is more than good enough too, while his striking is powerful and accurate. Barbarena on the other hand is an absolute brawler with fantastic power in his boxing combinations, while he is also capable of wrestling himself into dominant top positions too. If he is to be successful here though, he will want this fight on the feet.

On the ground Nelson has a huge advantage and he will be trying to get it there at all costs. As for Barbarena, if he can defend the takedown attempts and make it ugly (like he usually does) then the pick has to be “Bam Bam” to land clean enough to score a knockout win with his gas tank never letting him down either.
PICK – Bryan Barbarena via Knockout, Round 2

Justin Gaethje (23-4) vs Rafael Fiziev (12-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

The fight of the night and potentially the fight of the year stylistically in the co-main event. Justin Gaethje comes into this one off the back of a defeat in his title fight to Charles Oliveira, which he earned with a stunning win over Michael Chandler prior to that. Fiziev on the other hand is on a tear in the lightweight division, on a six-fight win streak including stoppage wins over Brad Riddell and Rafael Dos Anjos most recently.

Gaethje is one of the most heavy-handed brawlers in the history of the UFC, with incredible power in his boxing combinations and a willingness to take one to give one with great trust in his chin. He also has some of the most gruesome leg kicks in the business. Fiziev is a stunning striker himself, with brilliant Muay-Thai combinations and clinch work to go with nasty body kicks and brilliant power in his boxing too. This one won’t go the distance and it’s all about who can get hit the least hard. Simple, because there is no chance of Gaethje using his excellent wrestling skills as he just doesn’t care for it.

Fiziev’s quality of strikes and range management is fantastic, but Gaethje pushes a crazy pace and just beats everyone up if they don’t wrestle him to the mat. He will close the distance, land heavy punches and no doubt he will hurt Fiziev at some point. Fiziev is just as capable of countering with his great speed and accuracy, but the big-fight experience and one-punch power of Gaethje leans me to go in his favour.
PICK – Justin Gaethje via Knockout, Round 2

Leon Edwards (20-3) vs Kamaru Usman (20-2) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

An incredible main event will decide the winner of this trilogy bout and the undisputed welterweight champion of the world. Edwards is on an 11-fight undefeated streak, which culminated with a crazy head-kick knockout win over Usman to win the title. Usman was on a 19-fight win streak before that bout, and cemented himself as one of the greatest of all-time. Both of these men’s last loss was to each other.

Edwards is a really complete fighter who prefers to lead with the striking, as a world-class kickboxer with good knockout power. He’s also a solid grappler too, as he showed in their last fight against each other when he controlled the first-round on the mat. Usman is a dominant wrestler with fantastic control and technique in the grappling, but he’s also evolved his striking game to become a genuine knockout threat too. This is a crazy fight.

Usman largely controlled the fight the last time out and was 3-1 up heading into the fifth round, which he was also winning before the head-kick. But after getting stopped like that, things can change. Edwards’ confidence is sky high and he showed he is capable of hanging with Usman in the grappling as well as the striking. There is no altitude problems this time around which is what he credited to his cardio issues either, but it’s so hard to pick against Usman when it’s so evident that he can control where this fight goes with his wrestling.

I really want Edwards to get it done, but I can’t pick against Usman with the way the last fight went up until that haymaker kick with seconds to go.
PICK – Kamaru Usman via Decision

ufc 286: edwards vs usman – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) vs Gabriel Santos (10-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real banger in the featherweight division in a short-notice fight up next. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC and has won his last three in a row, KO’ing Ricardo Ramos and Makwan Amirkhani with a decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade in the middle. Santos is an undefeated fighter with seven finishes from his ten fights and is the current LFA featherweight champion.

Murphy is an all-round demon when it comes to the fight game with terrific wrestling and super powerful striking too. In fact, he seems to be better everywhere than Santos, but the Brazilian has got plenty of pressure and heart to keep going and the confidence of having never been beaten before. The one weeks’ notice is a big issue though.

Murphy hasn’t fought for almost 18 months after he was hit by a car while cycling, and if that health scare took a lot out of him then Santos has a chance. But if this is the same Murphy we’ve all come to know in recent years, he should have enough to get a stoppage win.
PICK – Lerone Murphy via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) vs Jafel Filho (14-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The hottest prospect in the flyweight division is back and takes on a Contender Series graduate in this one. Mokaev is 3-0 in the UFC after submitting Cody Durden and Malcolm Gordon while dominating Charles Johnson to a decision win too. Filho makes his UFC debut on a five-fight finishing streak, including a knockout win over Roybert Echeverria back in September.

Mokaev is one of the very best grapplers we have from the UK, with unbelievable wrestling skills to go with dangerous jiu-jitsu skills and some decent striking too. Filho is a very good submission artist with some decent power too, but he’s a level or two below where Mokaev is right now to put it simply.

Filho has the ability to catch Mokaev with a sneaky submission, but “The Punisher” is very good at staying safe and controlling his opponents. Expect that for long spells before he gets more aggressive late on and lands his own submission win to make a statement again.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Submission, Round 3

Sam Patterson (10-1-1) vs Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very interesting lightweight scrap up next between two guys making their UFC debuts. Patterson shone on the Contender Series with a solid submission win last time out, while Ashmoz is undefeated and makes the move over from the PFL for his first fight in exactly one year.

Patterson is a fighter who relies a lot on his cardio to get him through tough moments, with some excellent submission skills and lengthy striking technique because of his size. Ashmoz is a grinder who has a bit of everything, but there are a few levels between these fighters and the way they can execute a game plan.

The likelihood here is that Ashmoz is competitive early on before Patterson starts to piece him up on the feet, then shoots for a takedown too eagerly and leaves his neck exposed for Patterson to secure one of his trademark guillotine wins.
PICK – Sam Patterson via Submission, Round 2

Chris Duncan (9-1) vs Omar Morales (11-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight up next with yet another hometown fighter in the red corner. Duncan has won his last two in a row including a first-round KO win on the Contender Series last time out back in August, while Morales has lost three of his last four to Giga Chikadze, Jonathan Pearce and Uros Medic most recently.

Duncan is a striker with great power, but a real lack of defensive nous and a greater lack of speed leaves him with plenty to be desired. Morales steps into this fight on one month’s notice, and is an aggressive kickboxer with good power and technique too. He doesn’t have the grappling to be able to really make Duncan work, but this is an interesting fight.

On paper Duncan has the tools to win this, but Morales also has the ability to really outshine him and take a wide decision. I can’t see either man getting finished, and with a close fight expected I think Duncan will be able to do just enough to claim the win on the cards with his range, aggression and volume.
PICK – Chris Duncan via Decision

Jack Shore (16-1) vs Makwan Amirkhani (17-8) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A super fun fight to close out the prelims section of the card as Jack Shore makes his featherweight debut in this one. Shore lost his undefeated record to Ricky Simon most recently and opted to move up to continue his career, while Amirkhani has lost four of his last five including a TKO loss to Jonathan Pearce at UFC London in July last year in his last fight.

Shore is one of the most complete fighters to come out of the UK, with excellent wrestling and submission skills to go with powerful and technical striking. Amirkhani is very much a grappler with great submission skills, but his striking isn’t horrendous and he’s capable of mixing it in to secure takedowns. This is a good test for Shore moving up in weight, but he should have no problems here realistically.

He’s not out-sized despite the division change, he’s a fantastic grappler who is capable of more than holding his own on the mat and he’s by far the better striker. Amirkhani is notorious for having poor cardio too, so expect Shore to drag him into deep waters before getting a ground and pound finish somewhere in the middle round.
PICK – Jack Shore via Knockout, Round 2

ufc 286: edwards vs usman 3 – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Early prelims predictions

2 Comments

The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims here.

Juliana Miller (4-1) vs Veronica Hardy (6-4-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight fight to open up the card with the women here. Miller earned a stoppage win on her UFC debut against Brogan Walker back in August, while Hardy was beaten in a move up to bantamweight in her last fight against Bea Malecki just over three years ago.

Miller is an excellent takedown artist with some really serious jiu-jitsu skills, but her striking is rather awkward and is a big hurdle for her if she wants to fly up this division. Hardy on the other hand is a decent submission artist herself, but her takedown defence is pretty shocking and her striking is not great too. But she has been away for three years and it’s possible that she has reinvented herself.

The likelihood of that though is highly unlikely, although she is only 27 years old. The most likely outcome here is that “Killer” Miller gets a takedown early on and just controls Hardy on the ground until either an opening for a submission pops up or the buzzer goes for the end of the round.
PICK – Juliana Miller via Decision

Jai Herbert (12-4-1) vs Ludovit Klein (19-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An absolute banger of a striking fight in the lightweight division up next. Herbert has had an exciting time in the UFC but he’s been largely unsuccessful going 2-3, with a KO defeat to Ilia Topuria at UFC London in March last year before getting back to winning ways at the second UFC London card in July with a decision over Kyle Nelson. Klein on the other hand is on a two-fight win streak, with a split decision over Devonte Smith before a unanimous decision win over Mason Jones on that July London card himself.

Herbert is a fantastic boxer with great power in his hands, but his chin hasn’t proved to be the best so far and he seems to leave it hanging in the air quite a lot. Klein is a fantastic kickboxer with fearsome kicks in his arsenal and great power too, and he seems to be more durable and has better cardio since moving up from featherweight. Stylistically this is going to be a kickboxing match pretty much, and Klein is the far superior striker.

If Herbert can use his reach and pressure Klein he will have success, but he has never really been one to fight that way in the past so I expect the Slovakian “Mr Highlight” to get the job done and get the fans on their feet early on.
PICK – Ludovit Klein via Knockout, Round 1

Joanne Wood (15-8) vs Luana Carolina(8-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Another women’s flyweight scrap up next. Joanne Wood was on the verge of a title shot before losing to Jennifer Maia, before victory over Jessica Eye. Since then she has lost three in a row though, dropping a decision to Lauren Murphy before being submitted by Taila Santos and Alexa Grasso. Carolina on the other hand was on a two-fight win streak after wins over Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez, before a spinning back elbow from Molly McCann last March knocked her unconscious and snapped that streak.

Wood is a really tidy all-round fighter, with some very solid striking and kicks as well as a decent submission game to go with some basic wrestling. Considering Carolina struggled with all of that against McCann, who is much smaller and nowhere near as technical as Wood, that’s a big problem. Carolina will walk forward and try to box, but I expect that Wood should still have too much for her.

Despite the fact she has lost four of her last five, none of them have been against average competition and Wood should still be far too good for Carolina. Expect a dominant decision win.
PICK – Joanne Wood via Decision

Jake Hadley (9-1) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-6) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An absolute banger in the men’s flyweight division up next. Hadley had been flying before suffering defeat in his official UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, but he bounced back with a submission win over Carlos Candelario back in November. Gordon was on a two-fight win streak before his UFC 280 fight with Muhammad Mokaev, where he was super competitive before being submitted by an armbar with 34 seconds remaining.

Hadley goes by the nickname “White Kong” because of his excellent grappling skills, but he’s also a more than capable boxer too. Gordon is a technical fighter who has good skills all-around, but nothing exceptional that really stands out. Gordon’s usual game plan sees him mix his striking with his wrestling and top control, so Hadley will have to be at his best defensively to ensure he doesn’t end up on his back.

I expect Hadley to use his boxing a lot more than usual and even mix in some of his own takedowns to essentially out Gordon Malcolm Gordon. He’ll have to be at his best to do it, but expect Hadley to get the nod on the cards in a competitive bout.
PICK – Jake Hadley via Decision

Christian Duncan (7-0) vs Dusko Todorovic (12-3) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An absolute banger in the middleweight division between two powerhouses. Duncan makes his UFC debut as an unbeaten fighter with six finishes from seven fights, while Todorovic has won two of his last three including a knockout win over Jordan Wright most recently back in October last year.

Duncan is an elite striker with a super unorthodox style and off-beat rhythm, but incredible power with his taekwondo background. Todorovic is a power striker with heavy hands, but he often leaves his chin up in the air and sometimes has to mix in his wrestling to avoid a war on the feet.

But his wrestling isn’t very good and while Duncan’s takedown defence hasn’t been the best so far in his career, he has enough on the feet to catch Todorovic clean at some point in the early rounds to claim a statement win.
PICK – Christian Duncan via Knockout, Round 2

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Las Vegas: Yan vs Dvalishvili – Fight predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to Las Vegas for a huge fight night card where the top of the bantamweight division will find it’s next contender when Petr Yan takes on Merab Dvalishvili in the main event.

Yan and Dvalishvili are currently ranked in the top three of the 135-pound division, with the only reason that Merab hasn’t had a title shot yet being due to the fact the champ Aljamain Sterling is his teammate.

The two Russian natives will go head-to-head in a huge clash of styles in front of a big crowd, with the winner having a rightful claim to the next title shot.

Last time out at UFC 285 we had a fantastic night of picks, going 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

Recent fight history

Petr Yan is in a bit of a rut at the moment, having lost three of his last four fights including two title fights against the champion Sterling.

It started with that disqualification loss against Aljo, which saw him become the first fighter in UFC history to lose a belt in that manner. He followed that up with a stunning win over Cory Sandhagen to become interim champion and set up a rematch with Sterling.

That went badly though when he was out-wrestled and controlled on the mat to a decision loss, before stepping into the cage with Sean O’Malley and losing another decision in a razor-close striking clash at UFC 280 back in October.

Dvalishvili on the other hand is on an eight-fight win streak in the bantamweight division, bouncing back from defeats in his first two outings in the organisation.

Most recently he has put together mightily impressive wins over John Dodson, Cody Stamann, Marlon Moraes and Jose Aldo, where his brilliant conditioning and excellent wrestling got him over the line.

Fight styles

This is a real clash of styles between two fighters right at the top of their game in the UFC.

Yan is arguably the best boxer in the company pound-for-pound, with phenomenal striking defence and great speed and combinations to go with his kicks and cardio.

He’s also an excellent defensive wrestler with good scrambling techniques and super solid balance too.

But in Dvalishvili he will be coming up against one of the most relentless wrestling machines we have ever seen in the UFC, with unbelievable cardio abilities and a solid double leg and single leg takedown technique.

His striking is wild and aggressive, but it stems from being unafraid of his cardio ever leaving him to dry and his wrestling being stronger than everyone else in the division, including his teammate the champion.

It’s a classic striker vs wrestler battle, but both guys are also pretty strong in their opposing area to make for an excellent fight on paper

Prediction

This is a really, really difficult fight to call and predict.

When it comes to being on the feet, there is no doubt that Yan is the better fighter and he has the power, accuracy and speed to knock Merab out cold if given the chance.

But there hasn’t been a fight in a long time where Dvalishvili wasn’t able to repeatedly take his opponent down and rack up enough top control to win the fight while landing lots of damage from his ground and pound attacks.

Yan’s defensive wrestling was seen as impossible to expose until Sterling got him down and controlled him for three rounds in their rematch. Now, there are question marks.

Merab showed against Moraes that he is open to being struck hard by technical striker and he can be hurt, and if he allows Yan to land in that way then he will lose.

The same talk about takedown defence was mentioned before Merab fought Jose Aldo, and yet he had no problems taking him down several times in a 15-minute fight.

I came into writing this with Yan being my pick, because of his takedown defence and his striking technique. But re-watching the Aldo fight, and the fact this camp has seemingly got Yan’s number when it comes to the wrestling, it’s so hard to look past Dvalishvili here.

I absolutely wouldn’t be surprised to see Yan be successful, but Dvalishvili’s incredible cardio and relentless takedowns are likely to have a big effect as the fight goes on, and I expect he should be able to win at least three of the five rounds to get the win.

PICK – Merab Dvalishvili via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – Main card predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the T-Mobile Arena for the return of the GOAT, as Jon Jones finally makes the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight to compete for the title against Ciryl Gane.

Jones is the consensus GOAT in MMA, but hasn’t fought in three years. He’ll take on Gane in the main event at heavyweight to crown the new undisputed champion, after Francis Ngannou left the company while still holding the belt.

In the co-main event we’ll also see Valentina Shevchenko defend her flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso, while household names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cody Garbrandt, Bo Nickal and Ian Garry also feature on the card.

Last time we predicted a whole card was UFC 284, and we went 8/12 on the night with two perfect picks (not including the draw) to move to 837/1299 (64.43%) with 342 perfect picks (40.86%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, and then moving on to the rest of the prelims on the card, we finish up with our main card picks here.

Bo Nickal (3-0) vs Jamie Pickett (13-8) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A hugely anticipated UFC debut up next. Nickal earned himself a UFC contract with two first-round finishes on the Contender Series, and is a three-time All-American wrestler and former Olympic hopeful. Pickett has lost his last two in a row, suffering a submission defeat to Kyle Daukaus before getting KO’d by Denis Tiuliulin at UFC 279.

Nickal is arguably the best wrestler in the UFC now that he’s got a contract, but he’s also a very good striker with excellent kicks and some very fluid jiu-jitsu skills too. Pickett is a volume striker with okay power and good cardio, but his career trajectory is on the way down and the UFC knows it. Wrestling is a big problem for Pickett, and against someone as good as Nickal he’s in trouble.

This seems like a party for the UFC to introduce the world to Nickal. Expect him to come out really aggressively in the first round, score a takedown and work for a finish to really arrive in the organisation.
PICK – Bo Nickal via Submission, Round 1

Mateusz Gamrot (21-2) vs Jalin Turner (13-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Absolute banger in the lightweight division up next that was put together on short notice. Gamrot steps in for Dan Hooker who broke his hand in training, and looks to bounce back from defeat to Beneil Dariush most recently. Turner on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak, with two KO’s and three submissions in that run including a 45 second guillotine against Brad Riddell most recently.

Gamrot is a fantastic wrestler with excellent grappling skills and decent power in his hands, but it’s wrestling that is always at the forefront of his mind. Turner alternatively is a really well-rounded fighter with great power in his hands and great length to his striking, but he also has good wrestling and is trying to improve his grappling skills. This is surely too big a test for him to try and check his grappling skills.

“Gamer” has got cardio for days and has the exact style of fighting that Turner will hate coming up against. “The Tarantula” will look to use his size to stay out of grappling exchanges and use those straight punches to land damage, but Gamrot is so experienced at this level that I expect him to find a way to get this fight to the ground and dominate on the mat to claim a decision win.
PICK – Mateusz Gamrot via Decision

Geoff Neal (15-4) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Hugely intriguing fight at welterweight up next. Neal is on a two-fight win streak coming into this one, having edged out Santiago Ponzinibbio in a split decision and then KO’ing Vicente Luque in a career-best performance. Rakhmonov is undefeated and making waves, with a 100% finish rate evenly split between KO’s and subs. He dominated Neil Magny most recently, submitting him with a guillotine in round 2.

Neal is a powerful boxer with good volume and excellent cardio too, as well as some decent wrestling defence for the most part. Rakhmonov is one of the most complete fighters in the MMA, with amazing wrestling and sharp, accurate and powerful striking to go with it. Rakhmonov has dominated everyone, winning every round in his career and seems able to switch up his fight style depending on his opponent.

If they go toe-to-toe on the feet, then Neal has a chance because of his power. But history tells you that when Rakhmonov comes up against a striker, he’s happy to wrestle. When you consider that Magny dominated Neal with wrestling and Rakhmonov dominated Magny, there is a clear path to victory there and I expect him to find another choke midway through the fight to keep this amazing record going.
PICK – Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission, Round 2

Valentina Shevchenko (23-3) vs Alex Grasso (15-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Women’s flyweight title fight up next. Shevchenko is one of the best women’s MMA fighters of all time, and is currently on a nine-fight win streak although her most recent performance against Taila Santos was razor close and many believed that she lost. Grasso on the other hand is on a four-fight win streak, with a decision over Viviane Araujo most recently earning her this shot.

Shevchenko is the most well-rounded women’s fighter ever. She has got elite striking, elite wrestling, elite cardio and nasty submission skills too. Grasso is a good boxer with good volume, but her wrestling isn’t great and her takedown defence is a big problem in this match up. Shevchenko has the edge everywhere, and this fight is a bit of a mismatch.

Expect “Bullet” to out-strike her on the feet before switching to her grappling mode, getting Grasso on her back before looking for that crucifix position that she loves to get another stoppage win with elbows.
PICK – Valentina Shevchenko via Knockout, Round 3

Jon Jones (26-1) vs Ciryl Gane (11-1) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Without a doubt the most highly anticipated heavyweight fight that could be put together right now. Jones is undefeated (his only pro loss came via a ridiculous DQ) and is the consensus greatest of all-time, but he hasn’t fought for over three years since beating Dominick Reyes pre-pandemic. Gane bounced back from his title fight loss to Francia Ngannou by knocking out Tai Tuivasa most recently at UFC Paris.

Jones is capable of doing everything, with fantastic striking and power to go with world-class wrestling, great jiu-jitsu and the best fight IQ maybe ever. Gane is a new generation of heavyweight, with fantastic footwork and amazing speed in his striking to go with brutal knockout power. He does have an achilles heel though, and that’s his wrestling defence. He will have a natural size difference on Jones though, and he must use that.

But “Bones” is the greatest of all-time for a reason. Expect him to start slowly and download all the data he needs, just like normal, before blasting in for a takedown and dominating Gane on the mat as we saw Ngannou do. We don’t know how Jones’ speed and endurance will hold up with an extra 50lbs of weight, so Gane could well make him pay, but I expect Jones to get the job done and cement himself as the greatest of all-time.
PICK – Jon Jones via Knockout, Round 3

ufc 285: jones vs gane – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – Prelims predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the T-Mobile Arena for the return of the GOAT, as Jon Jones finally makes the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight to compete for the title against Ciryl Gane.

Jones is the consensus GOAT in MMA, but hasn’t fought in three years. He’ll take on Gane in the main event at heavyweight to crown the new undisputed champion, after Francis Ngannou left the company while still holding the belt.

In the co-main event we’ll also see Valentina Shevchenko defend her flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso, while household names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cody Garbrandt, Bo Nickal and Ian Garry also feature on the card.

Last time we predicted a whole card was UFC 284, and we went 8/12 on the night with two perfect picks (not including the draw) to move to 837/1299 (64.43%) with 342 perfect picks (40.86%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we now move on to the rest of the prelims on the card.

Julian Marquez (9-3) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Fun middleweight scrap up next. Marquez has gone 2-2 in his last four, submitting Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvey, while dropping a decision to Alessio Di Chirico and Gregory Rodrigues. Barriault on the other hand is also 2-2 in his last four, alternating wins and losses respectively against Dalcha Lungiambula, Chidi Njokuani, Jordan Wright and Anthony Hernandez.

Marquez is a speedy striker with good power, and he has also got some sneaky submission skills from the mat with a propensity to go deep into fights and steal results. Barriault is a super powerful striker, with great physicality and a really good clinch game. This is going to be a war of attrition, with both guys to get hit several times and the winner is whoever can come through it best.

I lean towards Barriault for that. He’s the better striker on the feet, and Barriault is a decent defensive wrestler too. Marquez struggles with his defence a lot of the time on the feet, and the way he got knocked out by Rodrigues last time out means he could well not be the same fighter anymore. Barriault should do enough across a 15-minute striking battle to get the nod on the cards.
PICK – Marc-Andre Barriault via Decision

Viviane Araujo (11-4) vs Amanda Ribas (10-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two contenders in the flyweight division go up next. Araujo has won three of her last five, but was beaten by Alexa Grasso most recently which essentially cost her a title shot on this card. Ribas on the other hand is in the same vein of form, but suffered a split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian most recently back in May 2022.

Araujo is a fearsome striker with excellent boxing and some really stout takedown defence. Her biggest issue has always been her cardio problems, but going all five rounds with Grasso last time out showed that may have been sorted. Ribas is a nasty jiu-jitsu practitioner, but her striking defence is horrible and her durability is more than questionable.

If Ribas is able to get a takedown, then it will be her fight to lose. But Araujo’s got the takedown defence to stuff the first few attempts and make Ribas work for it. While she does that, she should be able to land some big strikes on the feet, and that could potentially set up a short night at the office, although with her last seven fights going the distance I expect this one will too.
PICK – Viviane Araujo via Decision

Derek Brunson (23-8) vs Dricus Du Plessis (18-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A huge middleweight fight up next that could potentially set up the next title challenger for later this year. Brunson was on a five-fight win streak and set for a title shot before he ran into Jared Cannonier and got elbowed into oblivion. This is his first fight in over a year. Du Plessis on the other hand is currently on a six-fight win streak including being unbeaten in the UFC, with a submission win over Darren Till most recently back at UFC 282 in December.

Brunson is a wrestler, who uses his grappling to control opponents on the mat and rain down ground and pound strikes to claim victories. Du Plessis is an all-action fighter with a really wild style. He’s a powerful striker with good speed and solid low kicks, but he’s also a pretty good wrestler too and has got ten career wins by submission. Brunson’s wrestling is usually what separates him from his opponents, but Du Plessis is a solid grappler and has a big speed and physicality advantage.

Du Plessis is likely to push the pace hard in the early exchanges, making Brunson work hard for any successes and that will no doubt have an effect on his cardio. I expect the South African to make a statement once again and claim a violent finish to put himself into the title picture for 2023.
PICK – Dricus Du Plessis via Knockout, Round 2

Cody Garbrandt (12-5) vs Trevin Jones (13-9) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Slugfest at bantamweight is the featured prelim bout on this card. Garbrandt has lost five of his last six fights, with four of them coming via knockout including his most recent defeat to Kai Kara France down at flyweight in December 2021. Jones alternatively has lost his last three in a row, dropping a decision to Raoni Barcelos most recently in October 2022.

Garbrandt is a former world champion whose career has just fallen off a cliff. He’s a brilliant boxer with amazing power in his left hand, but he often lets his ego take control and leaves his chin up in the air leading to him getting put out. Jones is a tidy grappler with strong wrestling and good power in his hands, and with a four-inch reach advantage he will feel he can land big shots first and more violently.

“No Love” is in a must-win situation, but so is Jones. Garbrandt will feel that he has the power to knock anyone out, but Jones is a very durable fighter and the grappling advantages he has will put him at ease too. Whoever lands big first will win this fight, but Garbrandt’s volume and variety of strikes should see him do enough to get a really necessary win.
PICK – Cody Garbrandt via Decision

ufc 285: jones vs gane – early prelims predictions