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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 67: Strickland vs Imavov – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns after a month-long absence for it’s first card of 2023, and there has already been drama.

Originally slated to be a middleweight main event between Nassourdine Imavov and Kelvin Gastelum, before Gastelum fell out with a mouth injury during fight week.

He’s now replaced by Sean Strickland, who steps in after his main event defeat to Jared Cannonier in the final card of 2022.

During that even we went 9/13 with five perfect picks to end the year at #UFCVegas66, moving us to 804/1251 (64.27%) with 331 perfect picks (41.17%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims of the night.

Priscila Cachoeira (12-4) vs Sijara Eubanks (8-7) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The first fight of the year is a fun flyweight scrap in the women’s division. Cachoeira is on a two-fight win streak, beating Ji Yeon Kim via decision before knocking out Ariane Lipski most recently in the first round. Eubanks on the other hand has lost three of her last four, including her most recent bout to Melissa Gatto back in December 2021.

Cachoeira is a well-rounded fighter who prefers to stand-up, mainly because her takedown defence is essentially non-existent. Eubanks is a fantastic boxer, but her Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills are very good too, which is almost certainly where she’s going to try to take this bout. But despite her skillset, she’s never been able to put it all together.

That’s because her cardio is horrible and after about a round and a half, she starts to drop her hands and slow all the way down. If Cachoeira can survive the initial onslaught on the mat, which she should considering Eubanks has never won via submission, then she should be able to get to her feet in the latter stages and beat her up enough to claim the win.
PICK – Priscila Cachoeira via Decision

Charles Johnson (12-3) vs Jimmy Flick (16-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An intriguing men’s flyweight bout up next. Johnson bounced back from defeat to Muhammad Mokaev by earning a controversial split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov most recently. Flick is on a four-fight win streak but retired after his most recent bout in December 2020. This is his return fight after four-straight submission wins.

Johnson is a wrestler first and foremost, who looks to control opponents and work his ground and pound to claim victories. Flick is also a grappler, but he is a very serious submission specialist with phenomenal jiu-jitsu skills on the mat. The short-notice view of this bout should see Johnson as a relatively heavy favourite, but skill-for-skill it’s close.

You cannot rule out a Flick submission in the early rounds, but as the fight goes on it leans more towards Johnson’s favour. He should be able to win any striking exchanges and with the wrestling he will be able to fight his way up to his feet too. It’ll be closer than the odds suggest, but on short notice I think Johnson can claim the decision win.
PICK – Charles Johnson via Decision

Dan Argueta (8-1) vs Nick Aguirre (7-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Two guys looking for a first UFC win in this one in another short-notice match up. Argueta was defeated in his UFC debut by Damon Jackson last time out, while Aguirre has split his seven wins with three KO’s and four submissions to have a 100% finish rate. He steps in for Isaac Dulgarian during fight week.

Argueta was the number one pick for Brian Ortega in the Ultimate Fighter recently, but got beaten by eventual winner Ricky Turcios in the opening round. He is a super well-rounded fighter with six finishes in his eight wins, including four submissions. He’s a solid grappler with decent power too. Aguirre is a very aggressive fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes, but his preference will certainly be grappling.

Considering the way Jackson dominated Argueta in the grappling department, and how undersized he looks in the division, there is a chance for an upset. With that said though, Aguirre’s level of competition to date is poor and this is a short-notice bout against someone better than he’s ever faced before. On a full camp he’d have a better shot, but as it stands I expect Argueta to be able to get it done.
PICK – Dan Argueta via Decision

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 65: Lewis vs Spivac – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas after a stunning pay-per-view card last weekend for two heavyweight scrappers as Derrick Lewis takes on Serghei Spivac in the main event.

The number seven and number 12 ranked big men in the UFC go head-to-head in this headline clash, with both guys knowing a win puts them on track to get into title contention during 2023.

It’s a fun card with a few debuts and some sleeper fights, so be sure not to miss it.

Last weekend at UFC 281 we went 10/14 with one perfect pick to move to 776/1202 (64.56%) with 320 perfect picks (41.24%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, and after starting with the early prelims section of the card we move on to the rest of our prelims picks.

Vince Morales (11-6) vs Miles Johns (12-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Bantamweight banger up next in this section of the card. Morales saw a two-fight win streak over Drako Rodriguez (UFC 265) and Louis Smolka (UFC Vegas 44) snapped last time out when Jonathan Martinez claimed a decision win. Johns on the other hand was in the same boat, KO’ing Kevin Natividad (UFC Vegas 12) and Anderson Dos Santos (UFC 265) before being submitted by Jonathan Castaneda last time out. Johns steps in on just two weeks’ notice for this bout.

Morales is a boxing-heavy fighter with a demonic right hand that can turn the lights out with ease, but his grappling game needs work and that could be a problem here. That’s because while Johns is a decent striker, he’s at his best when mixing in takedowns and wrestling to grind his opponents out and make them work.

If Johns turns up fully focused and in good condition then his ability to mix things up and make Morales think should win him the bout. There is every chance that Morales catches him and claims a big win too, but with only one knockout win since February 2018 I’ll go with Johns to outwork him and claim the win.
PICK – Miles Johns via Decision

Jennifer Maia (19-9-1) vs Maryna Moroz (11-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A fight between the only other ranked fighter on the card outside the main event and a woman on a great winning streak. Maia has lost three of her last four, with a win over Jessica Eye (UFC 264) followed up with back-to-back defeats against Katlyn Chookagian (UFC Vegas 46) and Manon Fiorot most recently. Moroz has won three-in-a-row, with a second-round submission over Mariya Agapova most recently at UFC 272.

Maia, like her male namesake, is a fighter who excels in the world of jiu-jitsu but has limited striking and her takedown game needs improvement. Just like each of her most recent opponents, Moroz is a volume striker who has good distance management, decent power and a solid gas tank. Maia’s wrestling is better than anything Moroz has faced previously, but she is still physically bigger and more active.

Her movement should see her avoid being back up against the cage where the takedowns will be most effective, and if she can strike consistently and stay out of danger like Chookagian and Fiorot before her then this should be a pretty comfortable win in a rather uneventful bout.
PICK – Maryna Moroz via Decision

Charles Johnson (11-3) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-7) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Featured prelim bout up next in the flyweight division. Johnson made his UFC debut last time out in London and suffered a dominant and demoralising defeat via decision to star prospect Muhammad Mokaev. Zhumagulov has lost four of his last five, including each of his last two against Manel Kape (UFC Vegas 44) and most recently Jeff Molina back in June.

Johnson is a solid wrestler who is always at his best when he can get top control and grind his opponents out with some ground and pound and submission threats, earning four finishes via each method in the past. Zhumagulov is also someone who looks to wrestle, but his takedowns tend to come against the cage while his kickboxing is wild and reckless. Bad judging has cost him in recent fights, but this bout isn’t in his favour at all.

“InnerG” has the gas tank for five rounds and is sometimes at his best in that environment, but that should allow him to really empty the tank here and push hard. He’s also bigger, stronger and the better wrestler so he should be able to claim a pretty dominant win and send Zhumagulov out of the UFC.
PICK – Charles Johnson via Knockout, Round 3

ufc vegas 65: lewis vs spivac – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC London: Blaydes vs Aspinall – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to London’s O2 Arena for the second time this year for a stacked card, headlined by a heavyweight duel between top five big-men Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall.

We’ll also see the likes of Paddy Pimblett, Molly McCann, Mason Jones, Alexander Gustafsson, Paul Craig and Muhammad Mokaev competing in an event sure to provide plenty of fireworks.

Last week at UFC Long Island we went 8/12 with three perfect picks, moving us up to 685/1032 (64.34%) with 284 perfect picks (42.77%). You can check out our full history of picks here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Claudio Silva (14-3) vs Nicolas Dalby (19-4-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A fun welterweight scrap opens up the card in this one. Silva has lost his last two fights, dropping unanimous decisions to James Krause and Court McGee most recently. Meanwhile Dalby saw a six-fight undefeated streak snapped last time out, dropping a decision to Tim Means last time out.

Silva is a typical old fashioned Brazilian fighter who uses his excellent takedowns and jiu-jitsu skills to secure submissions, as his nine career submission wins show. Dalby on the other hand is a tidy kickboxer with decent boxing, but his takedown defence isn’t good and he’s a very slow starter.

That’s a big problem against someone like Silva, who will come out quickly and look to get this fight down to the ground quickly to work his grappling game. If he’s successful then this won’t last long, but if it goes on for a bit longer then Dalby should be able to grow and use his size and striking to pick Silva off from distance. That said, the fast start is a big problem so I think the Brazilian gets it done in this one, in one.
PICK – Claudio Silva via Submission, Round 1

Mandy Bohm (7-1) vs Victoria Leonardo (8-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two women coming off losses go head-to-head next in the flyweight division. Bohm suffered the first defeat of her career last time out, dropping a decision to Ariane Lipski while Leonardo has lost her two, getting KO’d by Manon Fiorot at UFC Fight Island 8 and then breaking her arm and retiring on her stall against Melissa Gatto at UFC 265.

Bohm is a decent striker with good mobility and movement as she looks to keep distance and pick her opponents off. Leonardo on the other hand is a strong grappler and wrestler, who uses her physicality to drive opponents against the cage and work her takedowns.

Leonardo’s only defeats in her career so far have come against top opposition, and her strengths lie exactly where Bohm’s weaknesses sit. Bohm is the better striker, but if she allows Leonardo to close the distance and get hold of her then I expect her to claim a comfortable win with control and damage on the mat.
PICK – Victoria Leonardo via Decision

Jai Herbert (11-4) vs Kyle Nelson (13-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Banger at lightweight up next as Herbert makes his return from the last UFC London event. He has lost three of four in the UFC, getting KO’d by Francisco Trinaldo (UFC Fight Island 3), choked out by Renato Moicano and KO’d again by Ilia Topuria. He earned his own stoppage win over Khama Worthy in the middle of that. Nelson on the other hand is in the same boat, but his fights stretch back to 2018. His last bout saw him KO’d by Billy Quarantillo most recently at UFC Vegas 10.

Herbert is a guy who absolutely loves to go to war with his guys, with solid striking and some decent wrestling defence in his locker too. He’s looked chinny in the UFC though, getting put out cold in both his KO losses. Nelson is a decent striker himself, with decent power, but he’s naturally a featherweight and he has a considerable speed disadvantage in this one.

Nelson will look to wrestle and slow Herbert down, but Herbert is so quick with such great technique and power on the feet as well as his defence that he’s likely to be able to catch him first with some powerful strikes to claim the win in impressive fashion in front of his home nation crowd.
PICK – Jai Herbert via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (7-0) vs Charles Johnson (11-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The super impressive undefeated Mokaev is back for his second UFC bout up next. He earned a brilliant debut win at UFC London back in March, choking out Cody Durden in just 58 seconds. Johnson on the other hand makes his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak, coming over from the LFA.

Mokaev is a brilliantly well-rounded fighter, with lightning quick strikes and good power to go with excellent grappling skills and some tight, technical chokes. Johnson meanwhile is super experienced, with good striking and scrambling skills and he will be a tough test for the 21-year-old without a doubt. With that said though, Johnson has some glaring faults that Mokaev should be more than ready to exploit.

Johnson has a habit of throwing naked kicks in punching range, and also backing himself up against the cage and going on the defence quickly. That makes him bread and butter for a wrestler as good and relentless as Mokaev is, and while I think Johnson should be able avoid being submitted I do expect him to be dominated for 15 minutes for another big win for “The Punisher”.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Decision