Tag Archives: Christian Rodriguez

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 – Main card predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns with yet another banger of a title fight rematch at UFC 287 when Alex Pereira defends his middleweight title for the first time against long-time rival Israel Adesanya in the main event.

This will be the fourth time these two have met in a fight, with Pereira winning each of the previous three but Adesanya running him super close every time.

We’ll also see Gilbert Burns fight Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event, while we’ll also see the likes of Kevin Holland, Raul Rosas Jr, Adrian Yanez, Rob Font, Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Curtis fighting on the card.

Last time out at UFC San Antonio we got the main event pick correct with Cory Sandhagen beating Marlon Vera, although it wasn’t a perfect pick. You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve our overall record here and after starting with the early prelims then moving on to the rest of the prelims, we head to the main card now.

Raul Rosas Jr (7-0) vs Christian Rodriguez (8-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

The youngest fighter in UFC history lived up to the hype last time out and he’s back on a pay-per-view main card next. Rosas Jr stepped into the octagon as a 17-year-old and submitted Jay Perrin in the first round, making it five wins via tap out in seven career bouts. Rodriguez on the other hand suffered the only loss of his career in his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce, but bounced back with a submission win over Joshua Weems last time out in October 2022.

Rosas Jr is a ridiculous talent with fantastic wrestling and a nasty Brazilian jiu-jitsu game to go with his massive frame for 135-pounds. Rodriguez is a kickboxer with a wrestling background and good jiu-jitsu skills of his own to make this a very interesting fight on paper. Rosas Jr is big for the division, but he tends to be quite aggressive and with Rodriguez’s skills he could make him pay for the smallest mistakes by taking his neck or being more patient when it comes to the striking.

But with that said, Rosas Jr is a stud of an athlete despite his age and he has been able to show great composure and skill on the biggest stages so far. It won’t be nearly as quick or lopsided as his debut, but Rosas is a good enough grappler to get a takedown and control the fight for the rest of that round to secure a win on the scorecards.
PICK – Raul Rosas Jr via Decision

Kevin Holland (23-9) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-6) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A super fun welterweight scrap up next between two fan-friendly styles. Holland is 2-2 in his last four, with wins over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means before back-to-back defeats against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson most recently. Ponzinibbio on the other hand snapped a two-fight losing streak to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira by knocking out Alex Morono to come from behind in his last outing.

Holland is a very well-rounded fighter with fantastic striking and good knockout power to go with solid grappling and jiu-jitsu skills, although he struggles when it comes to the wrestling both offensively and defensively. Ponzinibbio is a straight up striker with fantastic power in his hands and kicks, and some good takedown defence in his back pocket to boot. This one is going to be very, very fun.

Ponzinibbio was one of the most feared welterweights around before a two-year layoff saw him come back as a very different fighter. Holland is so active and has shown he can hang with the best, while his chin has held up against some real power punchers too. It’s going to be fun, but expect Holland to land the bigger shots and eventually stun Ponzinibbio with a counter before launching on his neck and taking a win on the mat.
PICK – Kevin Holland via Submission, Round 2

Rob Font (19-6) vs Adrian Yanez (16-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An absolutely amazing fight for the fans up next at bantamweight. Font had won four-in-a-row before dropping his last two against Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera by decision. Yanez is 5-0 in the UFC with four knockouts, including a first-round stoppage over Tony Kelley most recently. He’s now on a nine-fight win streak.

Font is a fantastic boxer with great speed and combinations, and he showed in his most recent win over Cody Garbrandt that he is also a more than competent wrestler too when he needs to mix things up. Yanez is also a super boxer with fantastic combinations and power, while his takedown defence has passed the test every time it’s been called upon. This is going to be a straight up banger between two studs.

Yanez is the favourite heading into this, but Font is far and away the best fighter he has ever come up against. His ability to box with Yanez shouldn’t be overlooked, but the ability to mix in his wrestling and his strong low kicks can disrupt the rhythm of the younger fighter. I absolutely love Yanez, but Font is no pushover and I think the veteran claims an entertaining win in the fight of the night on the cards.
PICK – Rob Font via Decision

Gilbert Burns (21-5) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-16) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Welterweight contender bout up next between two hugely popular stars. Burns is 2-2 in his last four having been beaten by Kamaru Usman in a title fight and then losing a razor close decision to Khamzat Chimaev, while he has dominated Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny most recently via a first-round arm triangle submission. Masvidal on the other hand has lost his last three, losing to Usman twice in two title fights before being controlled by Colby Covington most recently over a year ago.

Burns is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard with incredible submission skills, but he has also got hugely improved striking and fantastic power in his hands to go with it. Masvidal is a terrific kickboxer with super boxing skills and a nasty body kick, while his wrestling defence and submission defence have been fairly good in his career. This is arguably the last chance for two legends to make a title run.

Masvidal’s best hope of winning this fight is keeping it standing and getting into a striking battle with Burns. But Burns is no pushover in the stand up exchanges and he has the ability to force Masvidal to the ground with his wrestling and grappling skills. “Gamebred” has the one-punch power most fighters dream of, but Burns is very good at staying safe and also has a granite chin so I expect him to get Masvidal down and control him for 15 minutes to claim the win in Miami.
PICK – Gilbert Burns via Decision

Alex Pereira (7-1) vs Israel Adesanya (23-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A banger in the middleweight division as we find out who the better man is between these two once and for all (maybe?). Pereira is undefeated in the UFC after KO’ing Andreas Michailidis, Sean Strickland and Adesanya last time out, while he also has a decision win over Bruno Silva. Adesanya is one of the best middleweights ever, with his defeat to Pereira last time out ending a 12-fight win streak in the division in the UFC.

Both of these guys are long time kickboxers at a world class level, and both have transitioned exceptionally to MMA with those skills. Adesanya is the more experienced fighter and has shown some more grappling skills than his opponent, and he may need to use that in this fight to finally get one over on his long time rival. The bouts they’ve had previously have seen Adesanya winning until late on when the power of Pereira caught up.

That means Adesanya knows he can hang with him, and by mixing in more takedowns and making Pereira grapple with him throughout the opening 20 minutes it’s likely to wear on him more for that final round where he has proved so dangerous. “The Last Stylebender” is the better fighter in my mind despite the results of their previous bouts and I think he finally gets it done this time around on the scorecards to win his title back and set up a UFC trilogy later in 2023.
PICK – Israel Adesanya via Decision

ufc 287: pereira vs adesanya 2 – prelims predictions
Advertisement
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs Allen – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas for a featherweight clash in the main event between Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen in a potential title eliminator.

Both guys are coming off great wins last time out and will be hoping to put their case forward for a shot against Alex Volkanovski in 2023.

There’s a pretty good undercard to go off too in comparison to recent weeks, so it’s a good set of fights to look forward to.

Last time out at UFC 280 we went 8/12 with four perfect picks to move to 749/1166 (64.58%) with 317 perfect picks (42.1%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Christian Rodriguez (7-1) vs Joshua Weems (10-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An interesting bantamweight fight opens the card here. Rodriguez made his UFC debut back in February but was on the wrong side of a decision against Jonathan Pearce, while Weems makes his promotional debut in this one on a two-fight win streak via submissions.

Weems is a terrific grappler with a fantastic submission game, but he almost never uses it offensively and instead waits for his opponents to try and take him down before latching onto their neck or arm. He’s a brawler outside of that and it always makes for exciting bouts. Rodriguez on the other hand is a more steady boxer with good combinations and a decent low kick too, while his defensive grappling and offensive wrestling are decent too.

Both of these guys are unlikely to pull up any trees in the UFC any time soon, but Rodriguez certainly has more to his game. Weems is likely to come in as usual quite aggressively, and I expect Rodriguez to deal with that relatively easily with his jab and footwork. He’s got decent finishing power and with a really short-notice build for this for Weems, he could secure a late finish if he stays sharp and focus throughout.
PICK – Christian Rodriguez via Knockout, Round 2

Cody Durden (13-4-1) vs Carlos Mota (8-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Flyweights going at it next in a fun bout. Durden was submitted by Muhammad Mokaev in just 58 seconds back in March, but rebounded from that with a 68 second knockout win over JP Buys in June most recently. Mota makes his UFC debut in this one having won his last two in a row via first-round knockouts.

Durden is an excellent wrestler with great top control and some nasty ground and pound to go with it, while his improvements in the striking department are noted too. Mota is a super aggressive and brilliant striker with a phenomenal body attack and great power that has earned him four knockout wins in his career to date. The longer this stays standing it will suit the Brazilian, and Durden has got a habit of fading as we get later into the fight.

With that said though, Durden’s wrestling and experience at this level should be enough to win at least two rounds. Mota is a good scrambler but Durden doesn’t often need multiple takedowns to gain control, but he has it in his toolbox to do that. I expect him to win both the first two rounds with his wrestling and top game, before surviving a late comeback from Mota to earn the decision win.
PICK – Cody Durden via Decision

Chase Hooper (11-2-1) vs Steve Garcia (12-5) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Another fun bout this time in the featherweight division to close out this portion of the card. Hooper was super highly rated in the UFC but is now 2-2 in his last four, alternating losses to Alex Caceres (UFC 250) and Steven Peterson (UFC 263) with wins over Peter Barrett (UFC 256) and Felipe Colares most recently. Garcia on the other hand is 1-2 in the UFC, losing to Luis Pena, before beating Charlie Ontiveros and then losing most recently to Maheshate at UFC 275 in the first round.

Hooper is a grappling wizard on the ground with supreme technical skills in jiu-jitsu, who leaves a lot to be desired in the realm of striking on the feet. Garcia on the other hand is a striker who relies a lot on his power, but often overthrows and finds himself in trouble as he isn’t the most durable man on the roster. With that said, Hooper will be licking his lips at this match-making.

Garcia really struggles to control distance on the feet and if he gets too close and allows Hooper to grab him, this will likely end up on the mat. There he is basically in the ocean with a shark, as Hooper will control him relatively easily and likely cave his head in until the referee steps in to call it a day.
PICK – Chase Hooper via Knockout, Round 2

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this week for a card that has been littered with changes on short notice.

Originally scheduled to be headlined by Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, that fight was forced to be moved to UFC 272 due to visa issues and will now be headlined by Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill.

It’s not the greatest of cards, with the only ranked fighters scheduled to compete in the main event but there are some decent fights expected to take place.

Last week at UFC 271 we had a great night, correctly predicting 11/14 fights with seven perfect picks which takes our picks totals to 539/840 (64.17%) with 231 perfect picks (42.86%).

Lets see if we can improve that here, starting with the early prelims.

Mario Bautista (8-2) vs Jay Perrin (10-4) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A short notice bout put together this week in the bantamweight division. Bautista saw a two-fight win streak snapped last time out when Tevin Jones KO’d him in the second round at UFC 259, while Perrin makes his UFC debut on a run of seven wins in eight fights.

Bautista is a pressure fighter who uses kicks to close distance and likes to chop at the legs. He’s also a good counter puncher with decent power and is well rounded. Perrin on the other hand is also a solid striker, with good leg kicks and always looking to extend his combinations to catch an opponent off guard.

Both fighters will be willing to shoot for takedowns as well as stand and bang, so the short-notice nature of the bout makes me lean towards Bautista. He’s never had an issue with his cardio and I’d argue he’s probably got the edge over Perrin in most, if not all, areas so he should be able to implement his game and score the win.
PICK – Mario Bautista via Decision

Jonathan Pearce (11-4) vs Christian Rodriguez (7-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A banger at featherweight between two very interesting fighters in yet another short-notice bout. Pearce is on a two-fight win streak having beaten Kai Kamaka III and Omar Morales most recently via submission at UFC 266. Rodriguez is undefeated and has split his wins 3-3-1 by knockout, submission and decision.

Pearce is a solid wrestler who uses a suffocating pace to wear on his opponents with some really decent striking too. He’ll be coming up against a really talented striker in Rodriguez, who has crisp boxing, a lovely one-two and lovely knees too. He’s a good grappler himself, but there is a big gap between himself and Pearce in that department and that’s a big problem.

Rodriguez is undoubtedly a superstar in the making, with lots of talent and potential, but this looks to be too big a step too soon – especially on short notice. Pearce will suffocate him with pressure, look for takedowns against the cage and throw big combinations to get the fight down and eventually get a finish via ground and pound.
PICK – Jonathan Pearce via Knockout, Round 3

Chad Anheliger (11-5) vs Jesse Strader (5-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A potential fight of the night at 135-pounds between two very talented fighters. Anheliger makes his UFC debut on a nine-fight win streak following his win on Dana White’s Contender Series back in September, while Strader got slept in his only UFC bout to date by Montel Jackson at UFC Vegas 22.

Anheliger is a tidy fighter, with great technical striking and counter punching, a deep gas tank and a granite chin. Strader on the other hand is an explosive fighter who looks to take his opponent out early with a blitz, before his cardio inevitably lets him down later in the fights. Strader is a great wrestler too, but almost never uses it. If he did use it then we’d see a very different fight, because all of Angeliger’s defeats have come via submission.

With that said though, Strader isn’t the best submission artist and I don’t see him wrestling for prolonged periods of time. With that, Anheliger will trade with him on the feet and look to use his counter strikes to pay dividends on the fading chin of Strader as we approach the end of the second round. It’ll be a fun fight while it lasts, but I don’t expect it to go the full 15 minutes.
PICK – Chad Anheliger via Knockout, Round 2

beneil dariush withdraws from islam makhachev fight, replacement named