Tag Archives: Daniel Santos

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 288: Sterling vs Cejudo – Early prelims predictions

2 Comments

The UFC returns to pay-per-view with a banger of a main event that will see Aljamain Sterling defend his bantamweight title against Henry Cejudo.

The reigning champion takes on the two-weight world champ who never lost his belts as he returns to the octagon for the first time in three years.

We’ll also see a welterweight title eliminator in the co-main event as Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns go head-to-head in a five-round fight on just two weeks’ notice.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 72 we got the main card pick wrong, but our last full card predictions went well at UFC 287 as we went 8/12 with three perfect picks to move to 866/1339 (64.68%) with 355 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Daniel Santos (11-2) vs Johnny Munoz (12-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A fun bantamweight fight to open up the card. Santos comes into this fight 1-1 in his last two bouts, dropping a decision to Julio Arce before knocking out John Castaneda most recently back in October 2022. Munoz is also 1-1 in his most recent fights, getting knocked out by Tony Gravely before earning a decision win against Liudvik Sholinian most recently.

Santos is a wild man with a fantastic gas tank that he weaponises to push the pace against his opponent and launch a bombardment of attacks with his striking. He’s also a decent grappler, with really good scrambles and defensive transitions. Munoz is a solid grappler with seven of his nine finish wins coming via submission. He’s also got a strong jab, but prefers to fight at a relatively slower pace than what Santos will push on him.

Munoz needs to get a takedown and find a way to keep “Willycat” on the mat for as long as possible to drain him. That seems unlikely though considering Santos’ own good grappling abilities, and with the pressure and power he possesses in his strikes I expect him to cause Munoz big problems with his pressure and claim a stoppage win midway through the second round.
PICK – Daniel Santos via Knockout, Round 2

Joseph Holmes (8-3) vs Claudio Ribeiro (10-3) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Middleweight scrap up next between two relative newcomers to the UFC. Holmes made his UFC debut in 2022 and fought three times, going 1-2 with a submission loss to Jun Yong Park most recently. Ribeiro made it into the UFC thanks to a win on the Contender Series but he ran into Abdul Razak Alhassan on his debut and was KO’d 28 seconds into the second round.

Holmes is a decent boxer with some good wrestling, but his overall level isn’t the highest and he’s highly unlikely to ever make any big waves in the UFC. Ribeiro on the other hand is a power puncher with a fan friendly style that sees him throw bombs and hard low kicks, but his overall game is limited.

If this is an MMA fight then Holmes should be able to mix things together enough to find himself in dominant positions and using his jab and movement to earn the win. If they decide to just scrap though, Ribeiro will clean his clock. The safe pick here is Holmes to do enough to go the distance and win on the cards, but don’t be surprised if he gets splattered by one big right hand.
PICK – Joseph Holmes via Decision

Rafael Estevam (11-0) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A very fun flyweight fight up next. Estevam makes his UFC debut as an undefeated fighter after winning on the Contender Series last time out, while Zhumagulov is coming off three losses in a row with the last two being controversial split decisions.

Estevam is a terrific wrestler with fantastic technique and some really good chain wrestling to make sure he gets the position he wants. He’s also got a great gas tank to be able to push for those takedowns relentlessly, although his stand up game is bang average. Zhumagulov is a decent well-rounded fighter with good grappling and striking, but his cardio often starts to fade in the second half of the fight and lands him in big trouble.

He has the skillset to start well in this fight and land well on the feet while avoiding takedowns, but as his cardio depletes and Estevam starts pushing more and more, he will fade again. Estevam will do damage and ultimately look to keep him down, and that should be enough to earn him the win on the judge’s cards.
PICK – Rafael Estevam via Decision

Phil Hawes (12-4) vs Ikram Aliskerov (13-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

This is a really fun middleweight bout. Hawes has lost two of his last three fights by stoppage, getting knocked out by Chris Curtis and Roman Dolidze but he claimed a stoppage win of his own between those fights over Deron Winn. Aliskerov makes his UFC debut in this one on a five-fight win streak, with four of those coming via finish. His only loss in his career came against Khamzat Chimaev back in 2019.

Hawes is a powerhouse with great striking power and some decent wrestling, although he hasn’t used it effectively during his run in the UFC yet. Aliskerov is a similar fighter with some good striking, but his greatest strength is his wrestling ability and his cardio that he weaponises really well. That’s an issue for Hawes as the fight goes on, because his cardio has let him down several times before.

Aliskerov is going to want to chain wrestle and put the pressure on Hawes early to take away the big power. If he’s successful with that, then he should be able to control the fight more and more as it goes on with his wrestling and claim a comfortable win.
PICK – Ikram Aliskerov via Decision

Braxton Smith (5-1) vs Parker Porter (13-8) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big boys are out to play in this one. Smith is 5-1 professionally, but his only loss came against Chase Sherman way back in 2014. Since returning to MMA in 2022 he has gone 5-0 with five first-round knockouts. Porter on the other hand is a UFC veteran at this point, and has been stopped in the first round of each of his last two fights against Jailton Almeida and Justin Tafa.

Smith is as basic a heavyweight as they come, with a good chin and a ridiculously heavy right hand but limited skills anywhere else. Porter on the other hand has that too, but he’s also a grinding wrestler when he needs to be and he has plenty of experience on the big stage and how to get wins.

Unless “The Beautiful Monster” lands a stunning punch early doors that catches Porter off guard, expect him to end up with his back on the mat and Porter doing plenty of ground and pound damage to a tired opponent to make the referee step in and wave it off inside the distance.
PICK – Parker Porter via Knockout, Round 2

Advertisement
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs Xiaonan – Main card predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 61 this weekend with a strawweight contender main event headlining.

Brazilian bombshell Mackenzie Dern looks to bounce back from defeat when she takes on Yan Xiaonan in a five-round bout at the top of the card, with some decent support acts too.

The likes of Randy Brown, Randy Costa, Sodiq Yusuff and Raoni Barcelos are all on the card too, so it should be a sneakily good card.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 60 we went 8/13 with three perfect picks to move to 731/1132 (64.58%) with 308 perfect picks (42.13%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims and then moving on to the rest of our prelims picks here, we continue with our main card picks now.

Mike Davis (9-2) vs Viacheslav Borschchev (6-2) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Lightweight scrap up next. Davis is on a two-fight win streak currently in the UFC, defeating Thomas Gifford by KO back in 2019 before returning with a decision win over hot prospect Mason Jones at UFC Fight Island 8. Borschchev suffered the first defeat of his UFC career last time out, dropping a decision to Mark Diakiese in March.

Davis is a phenomenal striker with fantastic technique and tremendous power in his hands, while he also has some great wrestling in his back pocket too. “Slava” on the other hand is a renowned kickboxer who transitioned to MMA in 2019 and has been working on his grappling and wrestling. In a straight up striking bout, which this is likely to be, he is at home though and that’s a big advantage.

Diakiese was able to beat “Slava” by wrestling him constantly and controlling him on the mat. Davis could look to match that, but it’s not his natural game and that will exhaust him. In a striking bout, it’s hard to look past “Slava”. He’s the more powerful and more technical guy, but Davis is a brute of an athlete. It will be a great fight, but expect the fact he can mix his wrestling in with his striking to claim him a close win on the night.
PICK – Mike Davis via Decision

John Castaneda (19-5) vs Daniel Santos (10-2) – (Catchweight/140lbs)

Arguably one of the best fights of the night up next. Castaneda has won each of his last two bouts, KO’ing Eddie Wineland at UFC Vegas 19 before submitting Miles Johns most recently. Santos on the other hand suffered defeat in his UFC debut, as Julio Arce edged a decision at UFC 273.

Castaneda is a fine boxer with a good jab and decent power in his hands too, while Santos is a grappler with excellent jiu-jitsu who looked totally lost on the feet in his last fight. If Santos wants to win this, he needs to get his wrestling going early and get himself into a dominant position on the ground.

The problem with that is that Castaneda is as good a wrestler as he is, and he has a big advantage on the feet. He’s more powerful with his kickboxing and has a speed advantage too, so expect Castaneda to be able to claim a win in an entertaining bout.
PICK: John Castaneda via Decision

Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) vs Don Shainis (12-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

An intriguing featherweight scrap in this one. Yusuff bounced back from defeat to Arnold Allen at UFC Vegas 23 when he claimed a decision over Alex Caceres earlier this year in his last fight. Shainis is making his UFC debut on a five-fight win streak, having won each of his last three via a first-round knockout.

Yusuff is a power puncher who has incredible striking skills, earning six wins via knockout throughout his career but he’s also got an excellent double-leg takedown in his arsenal too. Shainis on the other hand is a solid boxer with great knockout power too, earning eight wins via KO. Shainis is a talented fighter who earned his shot, but this is a huge step up.

There’s just two weeks’ notice for the newcomer in this fight and he’s going up against a ranked opponent. He will look to come forward and land big to end the fight early, but Yusuff is known to be patient with his striking and technically excellent. Expect him to wait out the initial blitz before blasting Dainis to sleep in the latter half of the fight.
PICK – Sodiq Yusuff via Knockout, Round 2

Raoni Barcelos (16-3) vs Trevin Jones (13-8) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A really exciting bantamweight fight up next. Barcelos was one of the most underrated 135-pounders in the division but he has lost each of his last two fights dropping decisions to Timur Valiev and then Victor Henry most recently at UFC 270. Jones has also lost his last two, getting submitted by Saidyokub Kakhramonov before a decision loss to Javid Basharat last time out.

Barcelos is one of the most complete fighters in the division with excellent Muay-Thai, super chain wrestling, and a legit Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt but at 35 years old age may be catching up with him. Jones on the other hand is a ridiculously powerful individual who uses his reflexes to fight on the counter. Against Barcelos though, that may leave him too much catching up to do.

Jones doesn’t have a lot of output but when he lands he makes it count. A big issue he’ll have though is that Barcelos can take this to the ground pretty seamlessly and Jones’ defence is unlikely to be able to hold up against that. It will be entertaining, but I expect Barcelos to mix his kickboxing and takedowns to take the win.
PICK – Raoni Barcelos via Decision

Randy Brown (15-4) vs Francisco Trinaldo (28-8) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

“Rude boy” makes his return in the co-main event here. Brown is on a three-fight win streak after submitting “Cowboy” Alex Oliveira with a one-arm rear-naked choke at UFC 261, before earning decisions over Jared Gooden and Khaos Williams most recently at UFC 274. Trinaldo alternatively has won his last two, with decisions over Dwight Grant and Danny Roberts. A loss to Muslim Salikhov at UFC Vegas 28 has stopped him being on a six-fight win streak.

Brown is an incredibly well-rounded fighter with all the tools to really be something special in the UFC. He has got legitimate knockout power in his hands as well as real submission skills on the mat too, as well as an incredible frame for the weight class. Trinaldo alternatively has got great durability, but his striking skillset is incredibly basic. Power jab, big overhand left. But his ability to grind means guys just can’t get him out of there.

But Brown has got great footwork, incredible power and his ability to mix it up means he’s a threat everywhere and for the full 15 minutes. Trinaldo should be able to hang early on, but at 44 years old he is likely to slow down and with the way Brown hits people don’t be shocked to see this one end inside the distance.
PICK – Randy Brown via Knockout, Round 3

Mackenzie Dern (12-2) vs Yan Xiaonan (13-3) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Main event time and a fight to see who moves towards title contention for 2023. Dern bounced back from defeat to Marina Rodriguez by winning against Tecia Torres via split decision last time out at UFC 273. Xiaonan on the other hand has lost her last two in a row, getting KO’d by Carla Esparza and then going the distance with Rodriguez too at UFC 272 last time out.

Dern is a world class jiu-jitsu fighter with the best submission game in women’s MMA. Her biggest issue is that she struggles to get the fight to the ground as her wrestling is poor, but her striking on the feet has improved in recent years and her durability is good. Yan is a pure striker with excellent technique and good power too, although each of her UFC wins has gone the distance. This is a straight up clash of styles, and it’s all about who can get the fight where they want it.

Xiaonan will want the fight standing and she is talented enough to dominate in that area. Dern will want it on the ground and if she gets it there, Xiaonan will really struggle to survive if she finds herself for extended periods of time. Over the course of 25 minutes it’s hard to imagine that Dern won’t be able to get into a dominant position at least once. For that reason I have to pick her, but don’t be surprised to see Xiaonan control distance and keep the fight standing throughout for a decision win.
PICK – Mackenzie Dern via Submission, Round 2

ufc vegas 61: dern vs xiaonan – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns after a two-week break with a huge pay-per-view card headlined by two massive title fights.

Alexander Volkanovski makes the third defence of his featherweight title when he takes on Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung, in the main event.

In the co-main event we get the long awaited rematch at the top of the bantamweight division as Aljamain Sterling makes his first defence of the belt against Petr Yan, a little over a year after he won it via disqualification.

We’ll also see an incredible welterweight fight between Gilbert Burns and the freight-train that is Khamzat Chimaev before that, to see just how real the hype is.

Last time at UFC Columbus we went 7/12 with four perfect picks, which moves us to 585/903 (64.78%) with 248 perfect picks (42.39%).

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Julio Arce (17-5) vs Daniel Santos (10-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Arguably one of the fights of the night opens the card this weekend in the bantamweight division. Arce has lost two of his last three, including getting KO’d by Song Yadong in his last bout at UFC Vegas 42, while Santos makes his UFC debut on a two-fight win streak but he hasn’t competed since December 2019.

Arce is a very technical fighter who is no stranger to high-intensity brawls, with excellent kickboxing skills. Santos alternatively is an absolute powerhouse, who has incredible spinning techniques and great knockout power in his hands with wildly unpredictable striking. Arce’s experience and technical edge gives him an advantage but the fact he’s coming off his first ever KO loss and fighting someone who hasn’t fought in over two years leaves us with lots of question marks.

This is a really difficult fight to pick because of those variables, but I lean towards Arce. His technique should see him land well, especially considering Santos’ flimsy defence on occasion. He doesn’t have the sort of grappling to worry Arce too, so I think he lands clean enough to earn a very entertaining judge’s decision.
PICK – Julio Arce via Decision

Piera Rodriguez (7-0) vs Kay Hansen (7-5) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An undefeated prospect against a young and hungry prospect next up in the strawweight division. Rodriguez earned this fight by coming through an winning a decision on Dana White’s Contender Series last time out, while 22-year-old Hansen is currently on a two-fight losing streak after losses to Cory McKenna at UFC Vegas 14 and Jasmine Jasudavicius at UFC 272 in her last outing.

Rodriguez is a boxer with good power in her hands, but she tends to stand quite square and flat footed because of her attack style. That opens up a big window for Hansen to wrestle, which is where she’s at her best, and she can start to work her strong submission game too.

Hansen has only ever been KO’d once before so will be confident that she can eat a shot to get in on her takedowns. There is every chance that Rodriguez can splatter her with a big strike, but if Hansen leans on her wrestling and doesn’t hesitate on her shots she should earn a win here.
PICK – Kay Hansen via Submission, Round 2

Anthony Hernandez (8-2) vs Josh Fremd (9-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An intriguing middleweight bout next between two interesting prospects. Hernandez claimed a big win against Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 258 last time out, earning a stunning submission win against the ‘black belt hunter’. Fremd makes his UFC debut off a two-fight win streak, earning a submission win most recently in February.

Hernandez is a great grappler in his own right and has got decent striking too, but his defence was impressive in the last fight against Vieira. Fremd is a good wrestler who uses steady pressure throughout the 15 minutes to wear his opponents down, but ‘Fluffy’ showed last time out that he isn’t one to crumble under it.

Fremd isn’t a scary strong grappler, so Hernandez won’t be scared to go to the ground if needs be and he has the power on the feet to really hurt Fremd. Ultimately I expect him to clip Fremd early and then wrap up a submission on the ground to earn another win.
PICK – Anthony Hernandez via Submission, Round 1

Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) vs Jared Vanderaa (12-7) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big heavyweight fight up next between a wiley veteran and an interesting prospect for the big men. Oleinik has lost his last three in a row, getting KO’d by Derrick Lewis (UFC Vegas 6), Chris Daukaus (UFC Vegas 19) and Sergey Spivak most recently at UFC Vegas 29. Vanderaa on the other hand has lost his last two, getting KO’d by Alexandr Romanov and then dropping a decision to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 272.

Oleinik is a terrifying submission artist with a stunning 46 submission wins in his career including 14 ezekiel chokes. He looks to walk through strikes, swinging a wild overhand right before getting hold of you and taking the fight to the ground. Vanderaa on the other hand is a decent boxer who uses calf kicks well, and will have a considerable size advantage in this bout. On the feet Vanderaa will walk forward and pressure, but Oleinik will enjoy that.

The issue for Oleinik here ultimately is the fact he is 44-years-old now and he will be much smaller. If he can get the fight down to the ground then it’s his fight to lose, without a doubt. But Vanderaa will have a big weight advantage and it could be difficult to do. That said, Vanderaa is coming into this bout on just ten days notice, so I think Oleinik does get him down in the first round and ties up a choke for an impressive victory.
PICK – Aleksei Oleinik via Submission, Round 1