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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Orlando: Thompson vs Holland – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns after a two week break for one of the most stacked Fight Night cards of the year when Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson takes on Kevin Holland in the main event.

A huge welterweight bout should see a new contender emerge for 2023 at the top of the division, with both guys looking to break into the top five soon.

This card also has the likes of former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos, Tracy Cortez, Michael Johnson, Clay Guida, Niko Price and the super exciting Tai Tuivasa.

Last time at UFC Vegas 65 we went 8/11 with four perfect picks to move to 784/1213 (64.63%) with 324 perfect picks (41.33%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims section of the card, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Darren Elkins (28-10) vs Jonathan Pearce (13-4) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A very fun featherweight fight next between the past and potentially future of this division. Elkins has won three of his last four, losing to Cub Swanson and beating Tristan Connelly in his last two bouts. Pearce on the other hand has won his last four in a row with three finishes, beating Kai Kamaka III, Omar Morales (UFC 266), Christian Rodriguez and most recently Makwan Amirkhani at UFC London in July.

Elkins is a fighter with a bit of everything in his arsenal, but nothing to an outstanding level outside of his heart and durability. He pushes and pushes when others wouldn’t to grind out the win, using a rushing style and excellent cardio to his advantage. Pearce alternatively though is a sensational wrestler with a suffocating ground game as well as some technical standup on the feet, with a gas tank that seemingly never waivers.

Considering Elkins’ best chance of winning is turning this into a war of attrition, something that JSP thrives in, him winning this would be a miracle. Pearce should be able to overwhelm him everywhere and while he could get the finish to make a statement, I think Elkins should be able to survive that much at least.
PICK – Jonathan Pearce via Decision

Michael Johnson (21-18) vs Marc Diakiese (16-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An interesting lightweight fight between two guys who have had solid UFC careers. Johnson snapped a four-fight losing streak when he KO’d Alan Patrick back in May, but he lose a split decision against Jamie Mullarkey back in July most recently. Diakiese on the other hand bounced back from defeats to Rafael Fiziev (UFC Fight Island 2) and Rafael Alves to beat Viacheslav Borshchev and Damir Hadzovic in his two most recent bouts.

Johnson is a solid boxer with legitimately scary power in his hands and a decent wrestling background too but he really struggles if he ends up on the bottom. Diakiese is an excellent, technical kickboxer on the feet but has always been willing to wrestle if he needs too, which may be his best route to victory here.

Diakiese will feel he has the edge wherever this fight goes and when his confidence is flowing he’s at his best. Johnson will know he likely needs to land one of those detonators to win this bout which could see him chase it, but eventually he’ll be on his back and Diakiese will cruise to the win.
PICK – Marc Diakiese via Decision

Clay Guida (37-19) vs Scott Holtzman (14-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Lightweight scrap up next. Guida is one of the legends of the sport but he’s struggled in recent outings, losing a decision to Mark O. Madsen, before a knee bar submission loss to Claudio Puelles most recently. He earned a submission win over Leonardo Santos between those fights at UFC Vegas 44. Holtzman has lost his last two outings, but both came against elite opposition in Beneil Dariush (UFC Vegas 6) and Mateusz Gamrot (UFC Vegas 23).

Guida is a wrestler. That’s it. He will rush forward with great energy and bounce and look to take you down or push you against the cage and take you down. As for Holtzman, he has struggled in the past against persistent takedown offences, but his striking game is excellent and his takedown defence isn’t horrible. Add to that Guida’s takedown accuracy leaves plenty to be desired, Holtzman has a great shot here.

Guida won’t get tired and will be relentless with his shots for the takedown, but Holtzman can light him up like a Christmas tree on the feet with his punches and nasty knees. I don’t anticipate a finish on either side, but I think Holtzman lands enough killer shots to catch the judge’s eyes and claim a close decision.
PICK – Scott Holtzman

Angela Hill (14-12) vs Emily Ducote (12-6) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Strawweights up next looking to break into the rankings. Hill has lost five of her last seven officially but there are some dodgy decisions involved. Last time out though it went her way, claiming a decision win over Lupita Godinez to snap a three-fight losing streak. Ducote on the other hand has won her last four in a row, including a decision win over Jessica Penne in her UFC debut back in July.

Hill is a Muay-Thai fighter with good striking and a relentless work rate, constantly scrambling on the mat and pushing forward when on the feet to get her opponent moving backwards. Ducote is a decent boxer on the feet with good combinations and footwork, and she’s also got some good wrestling in her back pocket too.

Ducote will know that if she’s at her best then she should have too much for Hill, but Hill’s specialty is making people not be able to perform at their best. That should see Ducote even more tuned in and more focused, and with a deeper toolbox to delve into over the course of 15 minutes she should get the win.
PICK – Emily Ducote via Decision

Niko Price (15-5) vs Phil Rowe (9-3) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Absolute banger at welterweight as our featured prelim bout next. Price is 1-2-1 in his last four, losing to Vicente Luque and drawing with Donald Cerrone at UFC Vegas 11 (later overturned to a NC for cannabis), and losing to Michel Pereira (UFC 264). He bounced back with a big decision win over Alex Oliveira most recently though. Rowe recovered from defeat in his UFC debut at UFC 258 to Gabriel Green by knocking out Orion Cosce and Jason Witt in each of his last two bouts.

Price is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster, constantly pushing forward to land heavy strikes and knock opponents out, while also being willing to eat a few shots to give them back. Rowe tends to start quite slowly, but has got incredible punching power and good combinations once he starts going, as well as some okay wrestling to fall back on.

The problem he faces is that while he starts slowly, Price rushes out of the gate and against someone who can finish you in an instant that is dangerous. Price will respect the power coming back at him so it may take a few minutes to really start flying, but expect Price to up the pressure early and land a few big shots to close the show before Rowe gets the chance to really wake up.
PICK – Niko Price via Knockout, Round 1

ufc orlando: thompson vs holland – early prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 53: Font vs Vera – Main card prelims

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An absolute banger of a main event headlines the UFC Vegas 53 card live from the UFC Apex centre in Las Vegas this weekend.

Two top ten bantamweights go head-to-head as Rob Font takes on Marlon Vera in a five-round clash, while Andrei Arlovski takes on Jake Collier in a heavyweight co-main event too.

At UFC Vegas 52 last weekend we had a hot and cold night with our picks as we went 7/11 with zero perfect picks (for the first time since UFC Vegas 40) to move us up to 608/940 (64.68%) with 255 perfect picks (41.94%).

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here and finishing our prelims picks here, we now move on to the main card.

Krzysztof Jotko (23-5) vs Gerald Meerschaert (34-14) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A very interesting middleweight scrap opens up the main card between two well known fighters. Jotko has won four of his last five fights, bouncing back from defeat to Sean Strickland at UFC Vegas 25 with a split decision win over Misha Cirkunov at UFC Vegas 38. Meerschaert on the other hand has bounced back from his super-quick KO loss to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC Vegas 17 with three straight submission wins including a late one against Dustin Stoltzfus most recently at UFC Vegas 45.

Jotko is a kickboxer who looks to fight from range using his kicks and long punches and a steady pace that he has shown he is capable of pushing for the entire 15 minutes. Meerschaert on the other hand is an amazing grappler with all of his UFC wins coming by finish, and more submission wins in his career than any other middleweight in UFC history. It’s a real battle of styles, but this one seems to favour Jotko a little bit more.

Meerschaert is by far the more dangerous of the two, but Jotko is so methodical that he tends to just nullify his opponents and win minutes of fights rather than dominate them. It’s either going to be a Meerschaert submission or Jotko decision, but the Polish fighter is all about claiming wins despite it being the most boring fight of the night and he’s likely to do that again.
PICK – Krzysztof Jotko via Decision

Darren Elkins (27-10) vs Tristan Connelly (14-7) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

‘The Damage’ returns to the octagon in a banger of a fight at 145-pounds here. Elkins has lost five of his last seven, including his most recent outing against the returning Cub Swanson at UFC Vegas 45 where he was KO’d by a spinning wheel kick. Connelly saw a near two-year layoff culminate in a defeat against Pat Sabatini in his most recent bout back at UFC 261.

These are two veterans of the sport likely on their way out of the sport sooner rather than later. Elkins is a grinder who tends to walk through flames to score a takedown and really wear down his opponent before taking over from top position, while Connelly is also a ground specialist although he prefers to use his jiu-jitsu skills when down there. That sets up a pretty exciting encounter if the fight hits the mat, and both guys will back themselves to come out on top in that scenario.

The best bet for Connelly to score a submission is to hurt him on the feet first and then latch on to something. His striking isn’t great however and with the relentless wrestling style of Elkins, I expect him to smother Connelly over the course of the 15 minutes and earn a vintage decision win.
PICK – Darren Elkins via Decision

Jared Gordon (18-4) vs Grant Dawson (17-1-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Very exciting lightweight bout up next between two guys looking to burst their way into the rankings. Gordon has won three in a row since getting knocked out by the now-champion Charles Oliveira in 2019, all via decision with the most recent coming against Joe Solecki. Dawson on the other hand is nine undefeated, with a draw against Ricky Glenn most recently snapping his win streak.

Gordon is a grinder of a fighter who just doesn’t stop coming forward. He doesn’t particularly excel in any area but is decent enough to hold his own in most. Dawson on the other hand is a specialist wrestler who has looked to use his new-found kickboxing skills more often in recent bouts. He tends to use the fence to his advantage too, pinning opponents to the mat and looking to push them into submission situations. But his best times came at featherweight and now that physicality isn’t a stand-out attribute anymore.

‘Flash’ is definitely the more heavy-handed striker on the feet, but Dawson has the edge in the wrestling and should be able to keep Gordon down if he does get the fight down. Gordon’s cardio will still be there at the end of the fight regardless of how the rest of the fight has gone, while Dawson could struggle deeper into the bout. It will be close for the judges, but I think wrestling wins out and earns him a tight decision.
PICK – Grant Dawson via Decision

Andre Fili (21-8) vs Joanderson Brito (12-3-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

This should be a very fun featherweight scrap between two very exciting fighters. Fili is coming off a ‘no contest’ bout against Daniel Pineda back at UFC Vegas 30, while Brito suffered a unanimous decision defeat in his UFC debut to Bill Algeo back at UFC Vegas 46 at the start of the year.

Fili is a very technical kickboxer with some reactive takedowns and good grappling skills on the mat too, while Brito is a very standard Muay Thai fighter but with excellent power in his strikes and nasty clinch work culminating in ten finishes from his 12 victories. Brito was beaten by Algeo last time out, and Fili is a better version of Algeo with more strings to his bow. Obviously, that’s a problem for the Brazilian prospect.

Brito has got huge power and has always got it in him to land one big shot and end the fight there and then. But ultimately Fili is the better fighter here. His kickboxing is sharper, his wrestling is a way for him to be able mix it up and he’s the more experienced guy too. It won’t be easy, but I think Fili takes him all the way and earns the nod from the judges.
PICK – Andre Fili via Decision

Andrei Arlovski (33-20) vs Jake Collier (13-6) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Heavyweight collision in the co-main event between two men at different ends of their UFC career. Former champion Arlovski has won five of his last six, with the only defeat coming against Tom Aspinall, including each of his last three via decision. Collier on the other hand is a former middleweight who has alternated wins and losses since 2014 going back 11 fights. His most recent was a win against Chase Sherman via submission back in January at UFC Vegas 46.

Arlovski is a traditional heavyweight with some good boxing and a lethal left high kick just like the famous Mirko Cro Cop once upon a time. He uses good movement and volume well rather than power punches, but seems to be excellent at avoiding damage and doing well. Collier is a very similar fighter, just ten years younger and he has got a good grappling background in his arsenal too.

This is a strange fight to be the co-main event in all honesty, but I can’t go against the 50-50 record over the last eight years. Arlovski looks as good as he’s looked in a long while recently and has the experience to make his momentum and moments count. Collier likes to throw leg kicks and that could leave him open to a straight right hand counter down the pipe but most likely this looks like a pretty comfortable Collier decision win.
PICK – Jake Collier via Decision

Rob Font (19-5) vs Marlon Vera (18-7-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An absolute banger of a main event and comfortably the fight of the night on this card. Font saw a four-fight win streak snapped last time out by Jose Aldo in a great fight at UFC Vegas 44, while Vera earned a highlight reel front-kick-to-the-face knockout against Frankie Edgar in his most recent outing at UFC 268.

Font is one of the best pure boxers in the UFC, with incredible hand speed and solid power in his hands as well as some good takedowns as shown against Cody Garbrandt in his most recent win. Vera on the other hand is a really tidy all-round fighter with crisp striking and great technique with his leg kicks and punches, while he also has excellent jiu-jitsu skills and grappling on the mat. Vera has never been finished in his career, but his lack of output early on in fights could see Font have a lot of early success with his boxing to the body.

It’s unlikely that Font will look to grapple at all in this fight, because that is entering Vera’s world. His boxing and speed is where he can win this fight, but Vera is good at applying pressure and forcing his opponents to fight on the back foot. It should be a terrific fight overall, but I think Font’s early work will be enough to edge him a judge’s decision for the bout.
PICK – Rob Font via Decision

ufc vegas 53: font vs vera – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 45: Lewis vs Daukaus – Main card predictions

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The final UFC event of 2021 is upon us and will be headlined by heavyweight bangers in Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

The two are at different ends of their career realistically and are fighting to carry the torch of the division into 2022.

In the co-main we’ll see welterweight contender Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson enter the last chance saloon for title contention when he takes on Belal Muhammad, who is looking to break into the top five of the rankings for the first time.

Last time out at UFC 269 we went 9/14 on the night in a fantastic card to move to 500/779 (64.18%) with 211 perfect picks (42.2%).

We’ll look to end the year on a high here and after starting with the early prelims on this 14-fight card then picking the rest of the prelims here, we move onto the main card now.

Cub Swanson (27-12) vs Darren Elkins (27-9) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A very fun featherweight fight between two vetereans of the fight game. Swanson earned a big KO win over Daniel Pineda at UFC 256 before getting smoked by Giga Chikhadze last time out at UFC Vegas 25. Elkins on the other hand has won his last two-in-a-row with a submission against Luiz Garagorri at UFC Vegas 13 before a knockout against Darrick Minner at UFC Vegas 32.

Swanson is a fantastic jiu-jitsu fighter with great power in his hands and plenty of experience to his name with 15 stoppage wins in his career. Elkins on the other hand is a pressure fighter with plenty of strikes and great wrestling in his weaponry. This will be an interesting fight because they are both well matched up and well-rounded.

Both of these guys will come forward and continue to pressure as usual, but I think Swanson has the edge on the feet and has enough about him to see off any wrestling attacks or submission threats and ultimately earn a judges decision.
PICK – Cub Swanson via Decision

Diego Ferreira (17-4) vs Mateusz Gamrot (19-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight bout here as the veteran Ferreira takes on the very hot prospect in Gamrot. Ferreira has lost his last two against Beneil Dariush via decision at UFC Vegas 18 and then Gregor Gillespie at UFC Vegas 26 when he got KO’d. Gamrot on the other hand bounced back from the first defeat of his career in his debut at UFC Fight Island 6 by earning wins over Scott Holtzmann at UFC Vegas 22 and then a submission over Jeremy Stephens at UFC Vegas 31.

Ferreira is a very good grappler, with great jiu-jitsu skills and some decent striking too earning him seven submission wins from ten stoppages in his career. Gamrot on the other hand is a machine when it comes to the wrestling, earning multiple takedowns and then using position to land solid ground-and-pound and threaten with submissions too to earn 11 stoppage wins in his career.

Gamrot is the physically bigger fighter and he seems stronger, which plays into his advantage in the grappling game. Ferreira is probably the better striker of the two, but he doesn’t really have the power to put Gamrot off coming forward. If ‘Gamer’ gets hold of him he should be able to take him down and control him, and I think his relentless pace earns him a ground and pound finish.
PICK – Mateusz Gamrot via Knockout, Round 2

Raphael Assuncao (27-8) vs Ricky Simon (18-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An interesting bantamweight fight between two guys on very different trajectories in their career. Assuncao has lost the last three fights he’s had, with a KO on the buzzer against Cody Garbrandt at UFC 250 in his last outing. Simon on the other hand has won three-in-a-row, earning a decision over Ray Borg before submitting Gaetano Pirrello at UFC Fight Island 8 and claiming another decision against Brian Kelleher at UFC 258.

Assuncao is a powerful striker with a great pace and some solid leg kicks, but he comes into this one aged 39 and on the decline big time. Simon on the other hand is a pure wrestling specialist who looks to secure positions on the ground and dominate from there on to usually grind out decisions. Assuncao has got great submission skills, claiming ten wins via tap-out in his career but Simon isn’t a scrub in the grappling.

Simon has got the ability to go into the octagon and wrestle for as long as is needed, whether that be 15 minutes, 25 minutes or an hour. He’s also a pretty good striker and can use that to set up his takedowns in this one, against a dangerous opponent. In the end though, Simon should be able to get the fight down and I back him to defend himself from top position to earn a victory.
PICK – Ricky Simon via Decision

Amanda Lemos (10-1-1) vs Angela Hill (13-10) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An interesting strawweight clash between two wannabe contenders gets a high slot on this card. Lemos is on a four-fight win streak, including back-to-back knockout wins over Livinha Souza at UFC 259 and then Montserrat Ruiz at UFC Vegas 31. Hill on the other hand has lost three of her last four but has turned in great performances in every one, dropping decisions to Claudia Gadelha, Michelle Waterson at UFC Vegas 10 and Tecia Torres at UFC 265 with a win against Ashley Yoder at UFC Vegas 21 pausing the rot.

Lemos is a very powerful striker, with seven knockout victories in her career and some good defensive wrestling on her side too. Hill is a pressure fighter who can mix up her game really well, using kickboxing skills to mix in takedowns and a decent ground game too. Lemos will walk forward in this fight looking to land power shots, knowing that Hill isn’t powerful at all.

Hill will likely use her speed to step away, but Lemos will likely look to throw a hard low kick to stop that movement from being so effective and use that power to earn her a judges decision.
PICK – Amanda Lemos via Decision

Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) vs Belal Muhammad (19-3) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Ranked welterweights go head-to-head in the co-main event here. ‘Wonderboy’ saw a two-fight win streak snapped recently, after his win over Geoff Neal at UFC Vegas 17 was countered by a dominant decision loss against Gilbert Burns at UFC 264. Belal Muhammad is unbeaten in six, having battered Dhiego Lima at UFC 258 before his no contest against Leon Edwards. He then returned to dominate against Demian Maia at UFC 263.

Thompson is as pure a striker as you will find in the UFC, with his karate game making him an expert in movement, range control and kicking as well as his brilliant counter striking. Muhammad is a well-rounded fighter, who can mix volume and pressure with some good wrestling too to figure out his opponents. This is by far the highest level striker he has ever fought though and it’s going to be tough for Muhammad to get that wrestling going.

Muhammad will look to set up takedowns with his boxing skills, but he isn’t as good a striker as Thompson and ‘Wonderboy’ has got brilliant takedown defence regardless of Burns’ success last time out. I like Muhammad, but this is too big a step up and stylistically it stinks for him. ‘Wonderboy’ will move around for 15 minutes and land big enough shots without taking damage to earn a decision win.
PICK – Stephen Thompson via Decision

Derrick Lewis (25-8) vs Chris Daukaus (12-3) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Main event time and it’s a banger at heavyweight. Derrick Lewis was on a four-fight win streak with KO’s against Alexei Oleinik at UFC Vegas 6 and Curtis Blaydes at UFC Vegas 19 before he was beaten by Ciryl Gane at UFC 265 in an interim title fight. Daukaus on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak with all knockouts, with his most recent one coming impressively against Shamil Abdurakhimov at UFC 266 after he stopped Oleinik on the Blaydes-Lewis card.

Lewis is a one-shot killer, with ridiculous power in both hands and explosive power that can shut out anyones lights in an instant. Daukaus is a super powerful striker too with tremendous hand speed, but it’s the jiu-jitsu black belt that makes this extra intriguing. If Daukaus looks to take this fight to the ground, Lewis will throw uppercuts and knees before trying to explode to his feet. If they go on the feet, Daukaus will look to use volume and speed like Gane did before going for a killshot.

This is hard to predict, because a fighter with the power of Lewis is impossible to write off. But with Daukaus’ speed advantage, solid power himself and grappling expertise he has far more routes to victory and I think that ultimately he will be able to shake up the heavyweight division by claiming a knockout win.
PICK – Chris Daukaus via Knockout, Round 3

UFC VEGAS 45: LEWIS VS DAUKAUS – PRELIMS PREDICTIONS
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UFC Vegas 32: Sandhagen vs Dillashaw – Main card predictions

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Arguably the best fight of the year not on a pay-per-view card headlines UFC Vegas 32 this weekend as Cory Sandhagen puts his number one contender status on the line against the returning former champion TJ Dillashaw.

The two were supposed to fight back in May, only for Dillashaw to sustain a cut in training forcing the bout to be postponed. In what should be an incredibly close fight, the winner is likely to get the next title shot against the winner of Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan’s rematch.

Elsewhere on the card, two young female prospects go head-to-head when Miranda Maverick and Maycee Barber square off on the main card in the flyweight division. Knockout sensation Adrian Yanez also returns to the octagon to take on Randy Costa too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 31, we went 7/10 with one perfect pick on the night to move up to 370/576 (64.24%) with 164 perfect picks (44.32%).

We’ll look to improve on that here with this 13-fight card and after starting with the early prelims here and finishing off our prelims picks here, we move on to our main card picks here.

Adrian Yanez (13-3) vs Randy Costa (6-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An absolute banger of a scrap at bantamweight as two super hot prospects go head-to-head here. Yanez is 2-0 in the UFC with two stunning knockout wins over Victor Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 12 and then Gustavo Lopez at UFC Vegas 22. Costa has won his last two in the UFC, including a stunning head-kick KO over Journey Newson at UFC Vegas 11.

Yanez has been dubbed the ‘mini Masvidal’ for his brilliant boxing skills and great kicks to the body, while Costa is a fantastic striker himself. Yanez is really good at setting up his kicks to the body and he has genuine knockout power in his hands. Costa on the other hand is a tricky fighter who switches stances, and that could allow Yanez to catch him on the inside.

It’s due to be a phenomenal striking battle and neither will want to give up anything against the other which could see a finish and I think Yanez will edge it, but don’t be surprised if Costa scores the win.
PICK – Adrian Yanez via Knockout, Round 2

Miranda Maverick (11-2) vs Maycee Barber (8-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An incredibly fun UFC flyweight fight in this one as two of the hottest prospects in the division. Maverick is on a five-fight win streak and is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Liana Jojua at UFC 254 and Gillian Robertson at UFC 260. Barber on the other hand was looking to become the youngest champion in UFC history before a defeat to Roxanne Modafferi where she tore her ACL, then lost her return against Alexa Grasso at UFC 258.

Maverick and Barber are both excellent strikers with genuine knockout power. Barber is a very solid wrestler who will look to hold her opponent down and slam ground and pound until she separates them from their consciousness. Maverick is really good at throwing in combinations on the feet and using her elbows and kicks well.

It’s a really tight fight and one that could well be the birth of a star and also fight of the night. Both have a path to victory but I think if they both tire, Maverick’s technique may help her out to land the better shots late and eek a close decision win.
PICK – Miranda Maverick via Decision

Darren Elkins (26-9) vs Darrick Minner (26-11) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

The worst tattoo in the UFC (maybe the world?) returns to the octagon to take on Minner in the featherweight division. Elkins snapped a four-fight win streak last time out with a submission win over Luiz Garagorri at UFC Vegas 13, while Minner has won his last two against TJ Laramie at UFC Vegas 11 and then beating Charles Erosa at UFC Vegas 19.

Elkins is a well rounded fighter who is excellent at firing strikes with volume and pushing the pace. Minner on the other hand is a remarkable submission artist with 22 of his 26 wins coming via tap out. Elkins has some good body kicks and solid wrestling too and his scrambles are solid but Minner is so good on the ground it might not even matter.

‘The Damage’ is 37 now though and past his prime and while he beat Garagorri, that’s not a big teller of where he is right now. Minner on the ground is unreal and this fight will almost certainly go to the ground, so I can’t see how he doesn’t secure a submission once again.
PICK – Darrick Minner via Submission, Round 2

Kyler Phillips (9-1) vs Raulian Paiva (20-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A very fun bantamweight banger as ‘The Matrix’ takes on the the decision master that is Paiva. Phillips has won four-in-a-row including all three of his UFC bouts against Gabriel Silva, Cameron Else and most recently Song Yadong at UFC 259. Paiva has won his last two, including his most recent against Zhalgas Zhumagulov at UFC 251.

Phillips is a solid striker on the feet with a background in wrestling to fall on where needed. He’s got good kickboxing and mixes it well with takedowns and makes it really hard to make reads on him for his opponents. Paiva is a good striker in his own right but he is a flyweight moving up and that won’t stand him in good stead here.

Phillips is bigger, stronger, more well rounded and this should be a pretty easy win barring something miraculous happening.
PICK – Kyler Phillips via Decision

Aspen Ladd (9-1) vs Macy Chiasson (8-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An intriguing fight at the top of the women’s bantamweight division as Aspen Ladd takes on Macy Chiasson. Ladd is a great striker, who’s only defeat came in just 16 seconds against Germaine De Randamie. She bounced back from that with an impressive KO win over Yana Kunitskaya back in 2019 but hasn’t fought since. Chiasson won TUF 28 and has since gone 4-1 in the UFC proper, with her most recent win coming against Marion Reneau at UFC Vegas 22.

Ladd is a brilliant wrestler who has some violent ground and pound and vicious striking on the feet to go with it, while Chiasson is a super well-rounded fighter herself too with an even split of finishes via knockout and submission. Ladd is returning from a torn ACL/MCL injury but while Chiasson has got some good names on her resumé she’s not fought anyone of the calibre of Ladd before.

Ladd is powerful, quick, a great striker and has the advantage with the wrestling too which means she can dictate where this fight goes. Because of that, she’ll only need one takedown per round to control and land some vicious shots and therefore I think she’ll get the win.
PICK – Aspen Ladd via Knockout, Round 2

Cory Sandhagen (14-2) vs TJ Dillashaw (17-4) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Arguably the best main event of the year so far for a fight night card, Sandhagen takes on the returning Dillashaw in the headline fight. Sandhagen has won nine of his last 10 fights, including two in a row against Marlon Moraes at UFC Fight Island 5 and Frankie Edgar at UFC Vegas 18. Dillashaw is coming off a two-year suspension for failing a drugs test, after losing in under a minute to Henry Cejudo at flyweight last time out.

Sandhagen is an amazing technical striker, with his last two wins coming via a spinning wheel kick followed by ground and pound and then a flying knee walk-off KO. Dillashaw is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division with excellent wrestling and powerful striking and kicks. Having been out for two years though, at this level, is something that is incredibly tough to overcome.

If Dillashaw can get in and wrestle Sandhagen he has a good chance, but ‘Sandman’ is one of the best at range management in the division and he has been very active while Dillashaw has been away. For that reason, I think he’s able to secure a huge win for his career in a real banger of a fight.
PICK – Cory Sandhagen via Decision

ufc vegas 32: sandhagen vs dillashaw – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs Teixeira – Prelims Predictions

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After the end of an era at UFC Vegas 12 last weekend, the UFC looks on setting up future events with this card.

In the main event, Thiago Santos takes on Glover Teixeira with both fighters hopeful that a win will put them in line to take on Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title in the near future, despite Israel Adesanya being lined up for the next title shot from middleweight.

There are currently scheduled to be 11 fights on this card, with six prelim bouts followed up by a five-fight main card.

Last time out I secured a great round of predictions with 10/11 correct picks, including four perfect picks. Lets see if I can’t improve that this time around, starting with the prelims picks here.

Gustavo Lopez (11-5) vs Anthony Birchak (15-6) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A short notice fight put together to open the card sees a return to the UFC for Birchak against Lopez, who looks to get the first win of his UFC career. Lopez was completely dominated by Merab Dvalishvili in his debut back in June, while Birchak is on a three fight winning streak with three first-round finishes although he hasn’t fought in over a year. It’s a tough fight to call, with Birchak’s ground game significantly improved from his previous run in the company but with a big break in competition and the short notice influence I think Gomez could get a win here. His kicking game is good and he’s the powerful striker on the outside, so I think he is able to stuff the takedowns and control the fight on the feet for a decision win.
PICK – Gustavo Lopez via Decision

Max Griffin (15-8) vs Ramiz Brahimaj (8-2) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Max Griffin is a UFC vet, but one who hasn’t been super successful during his tenure. He is 3-6 in the company and has lost four of his last five fights, including his last two via decision. Brahimaj on the other hand is making his UFC debut finally, after his original debut in June was scrapped following one of his cornermen testing positive for COVID-19. Brahimaj is a stud grappler, with 8 submission wins from 8 career wins but his wrestling is just average. If the fight goes to ground he’s dangerous but Griffin has a big edge on the feet in this one and a three inch reach advantage to boot. Griffin is also a strong wrestler if he needs to take the fight down for top control but with good cardio and a solid game-plan, ‘Pain’ should be able to take a fairly comfortable decision on the feet.
PICK – Max Griffin via Decision

Darren Elkins (25-9) vs Eduardo Garagorri (13-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A very strange match-up in this one, as Darren Elkins looks to snap a four-fight losing streak against Uruguayan fighter Eduardo Garagorri. Garagorri won his UFC debut by comfortably out-striking Humberto Bandenay, before being choked out by Ricardo Ramos in November last year. Elkins has lost his last four in a row against some top quality opposition, although his most recent bout against Nate Landwehr. This match up however is perfectly set up for him. ‘The Damage’ usually has a game plan of walking through his opponents attacks to get a takedown and dominate from there. Garagorri showed how much he struggled against strong wrestlers in the Ramos fight and this could go a similar route. Elkins will take some shots to get the takedown but once he’s there, he grinds out a win.
PICK – Darren Elkins via Decision

Alexander Romanov (12-0) vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima (17-7-1) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Another match up that one paper seems pretty one-sided. Romanov made his debut in September with a stunning demolition of Roque Martinez inside two rounds, while Marcos Rogerio De Lima has alternated wins and losses since December 2014. De Lima has stunning power, but he prefers to fight at light heavyweight but can’t cut anymore. He’s hopeless on the mat, despite a decent jiu-jitsu background and Romanov is going to eat him alive. The Moldovan will trap him against the cage, grab him, literally throw him into the air and just dominate until he gets a stoppage or a submission. It won’t last too long for my money.
PICK – Alexander Romanov via Submission, Round 1

Giga Chikadze (11-2) vs Jamey Simmons (7-2) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Yet another mismatch on the UFC card as the highly impressive Chikadze takes on debutant Jamey Simmons. The Georgian fighter outclassed Omar Morales last month to make it six wins in a row, while Simmons has been thrown to the lion’s den in a three-fight win streak. Simmons has decent wrestling skills but his stand-up isn’t great and he’s coming up against a truly top class kickboxer. Chikadze has good counter wrestling these days too so that’s Simmons’ only path to victory firmly shut off. ‘Ninja’ Chikadze will use his huge striking and height/reach advantage and get his first stoppage victory in the UFC.
PICK – Giga Chikadze via Knockout, Round 1

Trevin Giles (12-2) vs Bevon Lewis (7-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A clash between two perennial underachievers in the UFC as both Giles and Lewis look to make it back-to-back wins. It’s an uninspiring match up in all honesty, but Giles is the more complete and well rounded fighter. Lewis is a striker who’s output is very low and he has zero takedown threat, although his takedown defence is at 100% so far in the UFC. Giles has shown a wider skillset during his tenure and despite the reach disadvantage, I think his experience will come into effect and he should be able to to just out-grind Lewis for a decision.
PICK – Trevin Giles via Decision

thiago santos and glover teixeira now fighting for no.2 contender status