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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC San Diego: Vera vs Cruz – Main card predictions

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The UFC heads to San Diego, California for a bantamweight banger in the main event between Marlon Vera and former champion Dominick Cruz.

A 13-fight card that has got plenty of fire match ups on it is headlined by the two contenders in the 135-pound division, where a win could put them firmly in title contention for early 2023.

Last week a UFC Vegas 59 we went 7/10 with one perfect pick, moving to 690/1069 (64.55%) with 292 perfect picks (42.32%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims and then moving on to the rest of the prelims picks, we finish up with our main card picks.

Bruno Silva (22-7) vs Gerald Meerschaert (34-15) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

If this fight goes the distance, I’ll eat my hat. Silva is a knockout artist with 19 wins via KO, including each of his last seven wins. His last win came over Jordan Wright at UFC 269 in just 88 seconds, although he lost his last fight to Alex Pereira via decision. Meerschaert is a stunning jiu-jitsu practitioner with 26 submission wins, including his last three although he also lost his last fight via decision.

Silva is an absolute powerhouse, stepping forward with pressure and lethal boxing combinations to send you into orbit. Meerschaert on the other hand is a brilliant grappler who wants the fight on the mat ASAP, because his striking is absolutely awful. The way this fight goes depends on if his chin holds up.

My bet is that it absolutely won’t. Silva is capable of eating big shots himself and Meerschaert isn’t the most powerful, so he’ll likely be open to taking one to give one. His grappling isn’t useless too and while he’s not on the same level “GM3”, he will be able to hold his own somewhat. It won’t get there though, because Silva takes his head off in the first.
PICK – Bruno Silva via Knockout, Round 1

Priscila Cachoeira (11-4) vs Ariane Lipski (14-7) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A very interesting women’s flyweight bout opens up the main card here. Lipski snapped a two-fight losing streak after KO defeats to Antonina Shevchenko (UFC 255) and Montana De La Rosa (UFC Vegas 28) when she beat Mandy Bohm last time out. Cachoeira has won three of her last four with KO wins over Shana Dobson (UFC Vegas 14) and Gina Mazany (UFC 262) as well as a decision last time out against Ji Yeon Kim. She was beaten by Gillian Robertson in the middle of that at UFC 269 via first-round submission.

Lipski is an effective Muay Thai striker with excellent technique, but her power is lacking and she tends to be relatively hesitant to throw. Cachoeira is the opposite, with incredible power and wild technique as she marches forward and takes one to give two. Lipski is by far the more technical, but that means little if she can’t keep Cachoeira away from her as she throws bombs.

Cachoeira will move forward through the lack of power and look to blast her head off with elbows and hooks. If they clinch then Cachoeira is big and strong enough to break away and if it goes to the ground then the Brazilian has the advantage there too. If it’s clean and tidy then Lipski has a chance, but Cachoeira fights rarely are so expect a nasty win.
PICK – Priscila Cachoeira via Knockout, Round 2

Devin Clark (13-6) vs Azamat Murzakanov (11-0) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

Light heavyweights go head-to-head in this one up next. Clark bounced back from two consecutive defeats to earn a knockout win over William Knight in his last bout, while Murzakanov is an unbeaten fighter with a flying knee KO win over Tafon Nchukwi in his UFC debut.

Clark is a classic wrestler, who will look to close distance and get on top of you on the mat to control you for 15 minutes. Eight of his 13 career wins have come via the judges. Murzakanov on the other hand is a wild man with incredible strking power, with eight wins via knockout in his career. This is a classic wrestler vs striker fight, but for once I favour the striker.

Clark has struggled big time in the past if he can’t get his wrestling going, and his conditioning has never been his greatest strength. Granted this is Murzakanov’s biggest test of his career, but his power means he can change the fight on it’s head in an instant and he’s capable of going for the full 15. He overcomes a tough first round to land big in the second and earn a big KO win.
PICK – Azamat Murzakanov via Knockout, Round 2

Yazmin Jauregui (8-0) vs Jasmin Lucindo (11-4) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Two women making their UFC debuts on the main card is rare, but this one deserves it. Jauregui is undefeated with six knockout finishes, having made her name in Combate. Lucindo is on a seven-fight win streak with 10 finishes in her career, with three of her last five ending via knockout.

Jauregui is a super talented kickboxer with unbelievable speed and power in her kicks, while her punches carry clean technique and great pop considering the weight division. Lucindo is a grappler by nature with her amazing jiu-jitsu, but she’s also a good wrestler who looks to get into good positions and then rain down ground and pound strikes on her opponent hence the amazing record.

This is a really fun fight in all honesty, especially because both women will be relative unknowns to the majority of the audience. Lucindo will look for a body lock to close the distance and get the fight down, but the speed of Jauregui means she could easily get caught on the counter. Grappling is usually the key though if you can control where the fight goes, but something is telling me Jauregui gets the win here. It’ll be close and entertaining as heck though.
PICK – Yazmin Jauregi via Decision

Nate Landwehr (15-4) vs David Onama (10-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Short-notice co-main event comes together in this one. Landwehr earned a big submission win over Ludovit Klein most recently, to make himself 2-2 in his last four. Onama made it 10 finishes in 10 wins in his career when he stopped Garrett Armfield via submission last month at UFC Vegas 58.

Landwehr is a strong wrestler with excellent submission skills off the mat, despite just one win via tap out in his career. He’s got good power in his hands too, but wrestling is where he tends to go in most of his fights. Onama on the other hand is a tremendous kickboxer with sensational power and speed, as well as picture perfect technique.

Onama needs to keep this simple to win. Keep distance, use his striking to do damage and be focused on avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges. Landwehr needs to make it a gruelling fight where he’s forcing Onama backwards and tiring him out. Onama is such a gifted athlete however and has the striking credentials to be able to do what he needs to do to claim a tidy decision win for the first time in his career.
PICK – David Onama via Decision

Marlon Vera (19-7-1) vs Dominick Cruz (24-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Big time banger at bantamweight headlines this card. Vera is on a great run of three wins in a row since losing to Jose Aldo at UFC Vegas 17, with wins over Davey Grant, Frankie Edgar (UFC 268) and Rob Font most recently. Cruz recovered from his loss to Henry Cejudo at UFC 249 to win his next two, beating both Casey Kenney (UFC 259) and Pedro Munhoz (UFC 269) via decision.

Vera is a super well-rounded fighter, with much improved striking skills on show in recent fights to go with some excellent submissions on the mat too. Cruz is an unorthodox striker with top level wrestling in his back pocket too, with super movement making it hard for opponents to get a read on him. Vera will almost certainly take the centre and pressure Cruz, who will look to counter and manoeuvre away from his opponent.

It will be a really fun and close fight, but it’s hard to go against Vera right now with the improvements he’s shown. He’s powerful, a hard kicker, a good grappler and a quick striker too. Cruz has the experience, but both guys are well matched up skill-wise and Vera is the younger and more physical fighter. Expect fireworks early before a cagey affair that Vera is able to claim on the scorecards by way of the bigger shots and more pressure.
PICK – Marlon Vera via Decision

ufc san diego: vera vs cruz – prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anjos vs Fiziev – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex arena for another UFC Vegas card, headlined this time by huge lightweight contenders as Rafael Dos Anjos takes on Rafael Fiziev in the main event.

The number seven ranked 155-pounder takes on the number 11 ranked 155-pounder, but they’re backed up by a solid card this weekend including one UFC debutant and a list of experienced talent too.

Last time out at UFC 276 e went 8/11 (we don’t count no contests) with two perfect picks, moving us to 649/1009 (64.32%) with 279 perfect picks (42.99%). You can check out our total picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Ronnie Lawrence (8-1) vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov (9-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A banger at bantamweight to start the card here. Lawrence is on a five-fight win streak including a KO win in his UFC debut against Vince Cachero before earning a decision over Leomana Martinez at UFC 271 last time out. Kakhramonov on the other hand is on a three-fight win streak, including a submission win in his debut last time out over Trevin Giles.

Lawrence and Kakhramonov are both grapplers by trade, with great wrestling and some good submission skills in their arsenal too. However both are capable of keeping up a high pace and can land a good volume of strikes too, which is what this fight may turn into. There, Lawrence has a slight advantage and it could prove pivotal in this match up.

Kakhramonov showed a vulnerability when forced against the cage in his last bout and while he arguably has the power advantage, Lawrence seems like the most durable of the two too. Expect both men to keep it standing until an opportunity presents itself for a takedown, but Lawrence should be able to use his volume and pressure to force his opponent backwards and mix in takedown threats to earn the decision win.
PICK – Ronnie Lawrence via Decision

Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-3) vs Karl Roberson (9-5) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

An interesting light heavyweight bout up next. Nzechukwu started his UFC career 4-1, but has lost each of his last two fights after getting KO’d by Da Un Jung at UFC Vegas 42 before dropping a split decision to Nicolae Negumereanu at UFC 272 most recently. Roberson has lost his last three in a row, getting finished by all of Marvin Vettori (UFC Vegas 2), Brendan Allen (UFC 261) and Khalil Rountree.

Nzechukwu is a volume heavy striker who tends to walk forward head first and pressure opponents until they crumble, while Roberson is a solid all-rounder who can’t game plan to save his life. He grapples with grapplers, tries to jiu-jitsu with jiu-jitsu players and doesn’t use his striking game nearly enough. That’s a big problem against Nzechukwu, who will be the much bigger man coming into this fight.

Roberson’s volume isn’t great and if he chooses to just stand with his back against the cage and exchange strikes he’ll likely get stopped. Nzechukwu must let his hands go more often and continue to come forward, and he should be able to land enough to secure a close decision win.
PICK – Kennedy Nzechukwu via Decision

David Onama (9-1) vs Garrett Armfield (8-2) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A super short notice bout makes it to the card at the last minute. Onama suffered defeat in his UFC debut on short notice to Mason Jones, but bounced back with a big win over Gabriel Benitez when he KO’d him in the first round. Armfield on the other hand is on a three-fight win streak and makes his UFC debut in this bout, with seven finishes in his eight career wins.

Armfield is a well-rounded fighter with great hand speed and power, to go with some excellent wrestling abilities and a great fight IQ. Onama alternatively is a brilliant kickboxer with excellent power and speed, with explosiveness for days and a decent ground game too. These two guys have fought before, with Onama earning a victory via unanimous decision during their amateur days.

Onama has the striking advantage by a distance, but in the grappling he’s at a big disadvantage. His defensive wrestling and grappling isn’t great and Armfield has the ability to step in and wrestle for 15 minutes. The issue is he’s coming in on three days’ notice against a guy who has beaten him before. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him claim a decision win, but it’s a huge ask and I expect Onama to work the body and use his length to claim another win.
PICK – David Onama via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this week for a card that has been littered with changes on short notice.

Originally scheduled to be headlined by Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, that fight was forced to be moved to UFC 272 due to visa issues and will now be headlined by Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill.

It’s not the greatest of cards, with the only ranked fighters scheduled to compete in the main event but there are some decent fights expected to take place.

Last week at UFC 271 we had a great night, correctly predicting 11/14 fights with seven perfect picks which takes our picks totals to 539/840 (64.17%) with 231 perfect picks (42.86%).

Lets see if we can improve that here and after starting with the early prelims, we round up our prelims picks here.

Diana Belbita (14-6) vs Gloria De Paula (5-4) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A strawweight bout opens up the main prelims. Belbita lost her first two UFC fights before finally claiming a win over Hannah Goldy last time out via unanimous decision. De Paula on the other hand is nearing a 50/50 record having lost her first two UFC fights, dropping a decision to Jinh Yu Frey at UFC Vegas 21 before getting KO’d by Cheyanna Vlismas last time out.

Belbita is a pressure fighter with some good striking and great work rate and volume, while De Paula is a technical striker on the feet who has struggled so far with the level of competition. That said though, stylistically this one suits her well. De Paula should be able to land relatively clean shots from distance if she can maintain it, but Belbita will be looking to close it quickly and use her slight size advantage to wear on De Paula as much as possible.

De Paula will almost certainly land the better strikes throughout the fight, but Belbita will win this fight if she can make it ugly. She will come forward with pressure to force De Paula to take steps backwards, which will prevent the kicking game and I think she’ll mix in takedowns too to edge a close decision win.
PICK – Diana Belbita via Decision

Chas Skelly (18-3) vs Mark Striegl (18-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A very fun featherweight fight between two great fighters with excellent professional records. Skelly hasn’t fought since 2019 when he earned a decision win over Jordan Griffin, while Striegl suffered a 51 second knockout defeat in his only UFC bout against Said Nurmagomedov at UFC Fight Island 6 in 2020.

Both of these fighters will be looking to get the fight to the ground at the earliest convenience considering their strengths laying in the world of submissions. All 14 stoppage wins in Striegl’s career have come by way of tap out, while Skelly has earned ten submissions of his own throughout his career. Neither of these fighters have a great gas tank and their striking isn’t the best, so a stand-up war between them is unlikely.

But on the mat, Skelly has a big advantage. He’s the better wrestler of the two and has submitted the greater level of competition in the past, while he also has more power in the striking department while the fight is there. His layoff is a big concern obviously, but I expect he will be able to control Striegl on the ground for long enough to earn a decision win on his comeback.
PICK – Chas Skelly via Decision

Jessica-Rose Clark (11-6) vs Stephanie Egger (6-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Two women coming off victories go head-to-head in the bantamweight division. Clark is coming off two consecutive wins, KO’ing Sarah Alpar at UFC Vegas 11 before earning a decision win over Joselyn Edwards most recently. Egger claimed a win in her most recent fight by KO’ing Shanna Young in the second round via a nasty elbow at UFC Vegas 38.

Clark is a wrestler who takes her opponents towards the cage and looks to grind them out until an opportunity opens up to either slide a submission in or land ground and pound. Egger on the other hand is a talented judoka who has some very crisp striking in close, although her technique is lacking on occasion. Egger is very good with her throws and takedowns, but she’s shown a weakness to being taken down herself which suits Clark perfectly here.

Egger has the capabilities of being able to reverse takedown situations into her favour, but Clark is more than good enough to work her way back up if that happens. If she can not be too predictable with her grappling and level changes, then I expect Clark to be able to do what she does best and grind her way to a victory.
PICK – Jessica-Rose Clark via Decision

Gabriel Benitez (22-10) vs David Onama (8-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A potential fight of the night contender in this one at 145-pounds. Benitez has struggled recently with three defeats in her last four, including most recently to Billy Quarantillo via unanimous decision. Onama on the other hand saw his UFC debut end in defeat, snapping his undefeated start to his career, as Mason Jones dominated him up a weight class on short notice.

Benitez is a very talented striker, with leg kicks like a mule and nasty body attacks too. He uses his kicks like a jab, trying to maintain distance from his opponent with them and setting up other attacks too. Onama on the other hand is an absolute powerhouse with explosive striking and an ability to wrestle too. He switches stances well and likes to close his distance too, which spells trouble for Benitez.

Onama looks to have all the tools to really make a name for himself in the UFC and it seems as though the UFC have set him up with a really good stylistic match-up in this one. Benitez got dropped by an overhand from Quarantillo last time out and if Onama lands one, he’s going out. Ultimately, Onama’s strengths lie where Benitez’s weaknesses are and that should lead to a highlight reel KO.
PICK – David Onama via Knockout, Round 1

ufc vegas 48: Walker vs Hill – Early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs Vettori – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex once again for UFC Vegas 41 this weekend as Paulo Costa takes on Marvin Vettori in the middleweight division.

The Brazilian is looking to earn some respect back following his excuses and defeat to Israel Adesanya, while Vettori is looking to finally get that marquee name on his resume following his most recent defeat to… Israel Adesanya.

It’s not the most stacked card this week in name value, but there are some very fun fights on the card that we’ll look to predict.

Last week at UFC Vegas 40 we struggled at went 5/10 with zero perfect picks, moving us to 439/689 (63.72%) with 187 perfect picks (42.6%) since June 2020.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims picks, we complete our prelim picks here.

Jamie Pickett (11-6) vs Laureano Staropoli (9-4) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A very fun middleweight scrap continues the prelims of the card here. Jamie Pickett has lost his last two, dropping a decision to Tafon Nchukwi at UFC Vegas 17 before getting stopped by Jordan Wright at UFC 262. Staropoli has lost his last three via decision, with the most recent coming against Roman Dolidze at UFC Vegas 28.

Pickett is powerful puncher with some decent kicks, but he struggles to use his length to its maximum potential. Staropoli is a brawler who likes to march his opponents down and use his strong boxing and decent power on the inside to overpower opponents. The issue for the Argentine however is that he’s a natural welterweight and was way undersized at middleweight last time out.

His last five fights have gone the distance, but stylistically he is a nightmare for Pickett. ‘The Night Wolf’ likes to take his time to pick his shots and fight on the front foot, but Staropoli will come forward and force him onto the back foot with his pressure. For that, I think Staropoli can outwork him and earn a late finish.
PICK – Laureano Staropoli via Knockout, Round 3

Tabatha Ricci (5-1) vs Maria Oliveira (12-4) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An interesting fight in the strawweight division between two women looking for their first UFC wins. Ricci fought Manon Fiorot in her UFC debut on super short notice and got KO’d at UFC Vegas 28, while Oliveira makes her organisation debut on a two-fight win streak.

Ricci is a jiu-jitsu black belt with really good submission and grappling skills, but obviously we haven’t seen it at the elite level. Oliveira on the other hand is an okay striker on the feet but is very lengthy, with a non-existent ground game.

It’s a much nicer match-up for Ricci in this one than her debut and while Oliveira is talented, her record is as padded as they come. She doesn’t really have the greatest of KO power and Ricci should be confident enough to come forward and tie her up to get her to the mat. Once it gets there, it’s all about survival for Oliveira and I don’t think she lasts too long.
PICK – Tabatha Ricci via Submission, Round 1

Mason Jones (10-1) vs David Onama (8-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A really exciting fight between two prospects at 155lbs on short notice in this one. Mason Jones bounced back from his first defeat against Mike Davis at UFC Fight Island 8 with a great performance against Alan Patrick, where an accidental eye-poke made it a no contest. Onama on the other hand is an unbeaten fighter with all eight wins coming via finish and steps in on less than a week’s notice.

Jones is a phenomenal athlete, who likes to stand and strike with his opponent but also with great grappling to fall back on too while Onana is an absolute powerhouse of a man with power and good fighting instincts on the ground too. Despite his short career, he looks ready for this step up and with more time and a better match up he’d have a great chance of making an impression.

Unfortunately for him, his debut comes against someone who is relentless and more experienced. Jones will look to overwhelm Onama and with his experience, wrestling and power of his own he should prove too much for the debutant as the fight goes on.
PICK – Mason Jones via Decision

Junyong Park (13-4) vs Gregory Rodrigues (10-3) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Another fun middleweight scrap is the featured prelim bout on the card. Park is on a three-fight win streak with a dominant grappling and ground and pound display against Tafon Nchukwi last time out at UFC Vegas 26. Rodrigues on the other hand has also won his last three, with a decision win over Dusko Todorovic in his debut at UFC Vegas 28 most recently.

Park is a well-rounded fighter, with tight striking and some solid wrestling to go with his violent ground and pound. Rodrigues is a supremely powerful fighter with brilliant wrestling and jiu-jitsu too, boasting four submissions and four knockouts in is career.

Rodrigues has the power to finish, but Park is very good at defending himself and pushing forward. Unfortunately, he hates being on his back and being out-matched in the wrestling department doesn’t bode too well for him. Both guys have the power to land and hurt the other, but I think Rodrigues’ control from the top will earn him a decision win.
PICK – Gregory Rodrigues via Decision

ufc vegas 41: costa vs vettori – early prelims predictions