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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Charlotte: Rozenstruik vs Almeida – Fight predictions

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The big boys take centre stage at UFC Charlotte this weekend when Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida headline the card to look to move up the heavyweight rankings.

Rozenstruik is looking to get back into the top five conversation with a win, with a current professional record of 13-4 including a 7-4 run in the UFC to date.

He’ll be coming up against the on-fire up and comer Almeida who is coming into this bout on a 13-fight win streak and is undefeated in the UFC, having fought at light heavyweight and heavyweight.

Last time out at UFC 288 we didn’t have the best night of picks as we went 6/12 with two perfect picks to move us to 872/1351 (64.54%) with 357 perfect picks (40.94%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to put that right here in this very intriguing match-up, with big top five consequences for the winner.

Recent fight history

“Bigi Boy” has had a tough time of things of late in the heavyweight division.

The Suriname native has lost three of his last five fights. He dropped a unanimous decision to Ciryl Gane before getting back in the win column with a first-round knockout over Augusto Sakai in the following bout.

That was followed up with a unanimous decision loss to Curtis Blaydes before Alexander Volkov turned in a striking clinic with a first-round knockout to put Rozenstruik on his first losing streak of his career. He bounced back last time out though with a knockout win over Chris Daukaus in 23 seconds.

Almeida on the other hand is absolutely flying in the UFC and this will be his biggest test to date.

So far the Brazilian has gone 4-0 in the UFC with all stoppages, claiming a knockout over Danilo Marques in his debut followed by submission wins against Parker Porter and Anton Turkalj.

Last time out against Shamil Abdurakhimov he earned another vicious knockout win despite being taken into the second round for the first time in his UFC tenure.

Fight styles

This is once again another classic striker vs grappler bout in the main event and it’s one that is very intriguing to break down.

Rozenstruik is a fantastic kickboxer with incredible one-punch power and strong low kicks, and his power carries through over the course of 25 minutes if necessary as we saw when he fought Alistair Overeem.

He likes to push opponents against the cage with pressure before unloading a flurry of strikes full of power, knowing that if one lands clean that could be the end of the bout.

Almeida on the other hand is a phenomenal grappler with world renowned jiu-jitsu skills. He’s also a nasty striker with good power, but it’s on the ground where he does his best work.

His offensive wrestling is not the greatest, but he does have good trips and throws and if he gets into top position on the ground then he stays there until the fight or the round ends.

Prediction

Power or grappling is the big question in this one, and usually I lean towards the grappler who can control where the fight goes.

But there is a genuinely worrying size difference in this one with Almeida being a light heavyweight moving up, whereas Rozenstruik would struggle to weigh in at 205lbs if he cut a leg off.

If Rozenstruik lands clean then this one will end quickly, but Almeida is quick with his movements and his striking itself isn’t that bad so he will be able to hold his own for a short while. And if he is able to get his hands on Rozenstruik and take the fight to the mat then it will be over quickly.

As much as the one-punch power and size difference gives “Bigi Boy” a great chance for victory, I can’t see past Almeida being able to get him down and work for a submission quickly with his phenomenal skills to make himself a real threat in the heavyweight division.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 1

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 283: Teixeira vs Hill – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to Brazil for the first time since the first event without a crowd pre-Covid, for a double-title fight card at UFC 283.

In the main event is the short-notice light heavyweight title fight between Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill, after the UFC 282 main event between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev ended in a draw.

The co-main event will see Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno compete in a fourth bout against each other for the flyweight title, having gone 1-1-1 in their previous trilogy.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 67 we had a great night, going 9/11 with two perfect picks moving us to 813/1262 (64.42%) with 333 perfect picks (40.96%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims fights, we round up the prelims section of the card here.

Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7) vs Jailton Almeida (17-2) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big heavyweight scrap up next between a veteran and one of the hottest prospects in the division. Abdurakhimov has lost three in a row and is winless since 2019, being KO’d by Curtis Blaydes, Chris Daukaus and Sergei Pavlovich. Almeida is on a 12-fight win streak, finishing all three of his UFC bouts in the first round.

Abdurakhimov is a decent grappler with decent power in his hands too, but at 41-years-old he is into the twilight of his career. Almeida is one of the most devastating jiu-jitsu practitioners among the big men in the world, who also has good power in his hands. His wrestling is sensational and his cardio is very good too, meaning he can be relentless with his pressure for as long as the fight lasts.

A win for Almeida here gets him ranked, and it’s likely to be the most one-sided fight on the card. Almeida will shoot to take down Abdurakhimov almost immediately, wrap the legs up and force him to give up his back. From there he will either choke him or pound him until the referee steps in, so expect a quick finish in this one.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 1

Gabriel Bonfim (13-0) vs Mounir Lazzez (11-2) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A very interesting 170-pound bout up next. Bonfim is the younger brother on the card and comes into this fight as an undefeated fighter, with 10 submissions on his record professionally. Lazzez has won four of his last five, with his only loss coming to Warlley Alves in January 2021. He earned a decision win over Ange Loosa most recently in April 2022.

Bonfim is a terrific boxer, with fantastic power, speed and a lightning jab to go along with his excellent jiu-jitsu and submission skills. Lazzez is a really well-rounded fighter with good volume and cardio, although his power isn’t the best in the division. Bonfim is great offensively, but defensively he leaves a lot of holes that “Sniper” can take advantage of if given the opportunity.

Lazzez is probably a less rounded package than Bonfim, but he has got a great heart and resilience to keep pushing forward as the fight goes on. With that said, having the home crowd in his favour and having an edge in offensive striking and wrestling should be enough for Bonfim to get the win on the night.
PICK – Gabriel Bonfim via Decision

Thiago Moises (16-6) vs Melquizael Costa (19-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A short-notice lightweight bout up next. Moises snapped a two-fight losing streak when he earned a first-round submission for Christos Giagos last time out, while Costa has won his last two in a row via knockout, with the most recent coming in November 2022 in the LFA.

Moises is an excellent wrestler and grappler, with fantastic jiu-jitsu skills allowing him the chance to secure seven submission wins in his career to date. Costa is a powerful striker with great speed and technique, and he has an excellent ability to get back to his feet in grappling exchanges. It’s clear as day though, that he has never faced a grappler the level of Moises.

This is a lucky break for Moises, because he likely would have lost the initial match-up against Guram Kutateladze. But in this one he has the skillset to be able to hold Costa down regularly and for long periods while doing damage, using his experience and quality to get the win in an all-Brazilian affair.
PICK – Thiago Moises via Submission, Round 2

Gregory Rodrigues (13-4) vs Brunno Ferreira (9-0) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Robocop returns in this middleweight scrap against a UFC newcomer on short notice. Rodrigues has won his last two in a row, knocking out both Julian Marquez and Chidi Njokuani in his most recent bout. Ferreira earned a UFC contract with a 95-second KO over Leon Aliu on the Contender Series back in September.

Rodrigues is a really interesting fighter, who has a strange habit of fighting to the level of his opponent and just trying to cause as much damage as possible. Ferreira has a similar style who looks to cause chaos, but he’s never fought at this level before. Rodrigues’ jiu-jitsu pedigree is something that you’d expect him to lean on more often than not, but he just never does.

With Ferreira having an incredible ability to explode and put people out, that makes this a really interesting fight. He has the speed advantage and Rodrigues has been wobbled and hit clean on several occasions in the UFC. With that said, his chin has held up so far to this point and this seems like a big jump for Ferreira, especially on short-notice. Great fight, but Rodrigues gets it done in one.
PICK – Gregory Rodrigues via Knockout, Round 1

Mauricio Rua (21-13-1) vs Ihor Potieria (19-3) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

Legendary Brazilian gets back into the cage at home in this one. “Shogun” has lost his last two, tapping to strikes against Paul Craig before a split decision loss to Ovince St-Preux last time out. Potieria suffered a KO defeat in his last out, his UFC debut, against Nicolae Negumereanu, and is looking for his first win in the company.

Rua is a great grappler, but he has been outside of his prime for the best part of five years now and has trouble getting the bout anywhere near where his strengths lie. Potieria isn’t the greatest fighter in the world, but 15 years younger than Rua and far stronger physically to go with his nasty knockout power and this looks like a nasty send off for “Shogun” in his final bout.

Potieria has got some nasty boxing combinations and is physically strong enough to keep Rua off him and avoid any extended grappling exchanges. Expect a fast start from the Ukrainian and a couple of big shots get this done early on.
PICK – Ihor Potieria via Knockout, Round 1

ufc 283: teixeira vs hill – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 279: Diaz vs Ferguson – Prelims predictions

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The weirdest UFC pay-per-view event got even weirder on the day of weigh-ins, as the top three fights of the card all got switched.

Initially supposed to be Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz in the main event, “Borz” missed weight by over 7lbs which sparked mega changes.

It will now be Nate Diaz fighting Tony Ferguson in the main event, a five-round welterweight bout, while Chimaev will now fight Kevin Holland at a 180lbs catchweight.

Ferguson’s original opponent Li Jingliang will now fight Daniel Rodriguez at a catchweight, who was originally supposed to fight Kevin Holland. Crazy.

Last time out at UFC Paris we went 10/12 with four perfect picks for the night to move to 715/1106 (64.65%) with 302 perfect picks (42.24%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Jake Collier (13-7) vs Chris Barnett (22-8) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)
*Chris Barnett missed weight, fight will proceed as a catchweight bout.

Two heavyweight strikers up next. Collier has alternated wins and losses since 2014, with his most recent fight seeing him drop a split decision to Andrei Arlovski. Barnett earned a stunning spinning wheel kick KO against Gian Villante at UFC 268, before getting beaten by Martin Buday in his most recent bout.

Collier is a good boxer with good hand speed and some decent low kicks, while his movement comes from his previous career as a middleweight once upon a time. “Huggy Boy” is a powerhouse who likes to use unorthodox attacks to catch his opponents out, but ultimately he finds himself at a big disadvantage in this one.

“The Prototype” is the better striker with better movement and he’s also got good wrestling which he has shown in recent fights to be able to take the fight down to the mat if necessary. So long as he avoids the crazy strikes from Barnett and keeps the fight in his own wheelhouse, this should be a comfortable win on the scorecards for Collier.
PICK – Jake Collier via Decision

Denis Tiuliulin (10-6) vs Jamie Pickett (13-7) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A very fun middleweight scrap is due up next. Tiuliulin was submitted in his UFC debut against Aliaskhab Khizriev back in March, while Pickett saw a two-fight win streak snapped when he lost to Kyle Daukaus via submission in February.

Tiuliulin is a powerful striker with great technique and decision making that means he fights the same way no matter who his opponent is. Pickett is a striker too who likes to keep his range and use his kicks too, and where he misses out on technique he makes up for in volume. Pickett also has good wrestling, but he’s not really known as a killer in this division.

Pickett’s best path to victory is undoubtedly by mixing in his wrestling and staying at range. Tiuliulin will come forward and look to avoid that, and if he lands flush then he should be able to finish Pickett. It’s going to be close, but I’m going to back the one-punch knockout power of Tiuliulin because he’ll be the guy coming forward and dictating the pace.
PICK – Denis Tiuliulin via Knockout, Round 1

Jailton Almeida (16-2) vs Anton Turkalj (8-0) – (Catchweight/220lbs)

A short notice scrap up next. Almeida is on an 11 fight win streak including first round finishes in both of his UFC bouts, beating Danilo Marques and Parker Porter. Turkalj steps in on ten days’ notice, as an undefeated fighter with a win on the Contender Series back in July.

Almeida is a terrifying prospect at 31-years-old. He is a powerhouse of a puncher, but it’s his grappling game that makes him a real threat to his opponents, with ten submission wins in his career. Turkalj will no doubt want to stand and strike because of that, but his boxing isn’t the best and his head movement is basically non existent.

This fight will last as long as “Malhadinho” wants it to basically. Turkalj usually wants to wrestle but with the submission threat he’ll want to stand and that gives Almeida the chance to take his head off. If that isn’t working out, he’ll shoot and end up in top position and Almeida will surely be able to find his neck relatively quickly to claim a dominant victory and set Almeida up for a highlight reel win.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 2

Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1) vs Julian Erosa (27-10) – (Featherweight/145lbs)
*Hakeem Dawodu missed weight, fight will proceed as a catchweight bout.

A very fun featherweight scrap is the featured prelim of the night. Dawodu has won six of his last seven fights, with Movsar Evloev earning a decision win at UFC 263 before Dawodu bounced back with a decision win over Mike Trizano. Erosa on the other hand has won his last two, submitting Charles Jourdain before a split decision win over Steven Peterson.

Dawodu is a superb Muay Thai fighter who has got great power, good takedown defence and excellent cardio which should see him have the advantage in this match up. Erosa is a super submission artist with a big right hand, but if he can’t get the fight to the ground he tends to struggle to get wins. Getting Dawodu down to the mat will be hard enough, but holding him down there will be even harder because he’s a super scrambler.

“Juicy J” could potentially land one of his big right hands and then step onto a submission, but that’s a very slim hope. Dawodu is far more likely to tee off with body kicks, leg kicks and punching combinations while keeping himself at range to avoid the takedown. A combination of those things could see him earn a stoppage, but a decision win is more likely to see him get another win.
PICK – Hakeem Dawodu via Decision

ufc 279: chimaev vs diaz – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs Vieira – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 55, headlined by women’s bantamweight contenders Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira.

In a rather underwhelming card, there is a banger of a co-main event on display though in the welterweight division when fan favourites Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira clash in a ranked bout.

Last week at UFC Vegas 54 we went 6/11 on the night with three perfect picks, moving our total to 628/976 (64.34%) with 268 perfect picks (42.68%). You can check out our total picks chart in detail here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Omar Morales (11-2) vs Uros Medic (7-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight bout up next. Martinez started his career 10-0 before he ran into Giga Chikadze at UFC Fight Island 5. He then beat Shane Young via decision at UFC 260 before losing last time out to Jonathan Pearce at UFC 266 via submission in the second round. Medic on the other hand suffered the first defeat of his career last time out, getting submitted by Jalin Turner so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back.

Morales is a steady fighter with good boxing and kicks, and decent power in his strikes too but the durability of a bull when it comes to taking damage. Medic showed in his last bout that he’s useless off his back, but he has got tremendous power in his strikes as once again the bout didn’t go beyond the first round. We haven’t seen much of him in the cage so it’s hard to get a read, and that makes it hard to pick him here too.

Morales is very well rounded, has solid leg kicks and has only ever been hurt by Chikadze in the octagon to date. If Medic can’t get him out of there in the first round we don’t know how he holds up, so I’m opting for a Morales decision once more.
PICK – Omar Morales via Decision

Jailton Almeida (15-2) vs Parker Porter (13-6) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big boys step up to the plate next in this one. Almeida is on a ten-fight win streak with all finishes, split evenly between knockouts and decisions. He defeated Danilo Marques via knockout in the first-round in his UFC debut last time out. Porter on the other hand has won his last three in a row, all by decision, with a steady win over Alan Baudot most recently.

Almeida is a powerhouse who looks to drag his opponents to the ground quickly and then decides whether to smash their head in with strikes and elbows or take their back and choke them out. Porter is a steady fighter, more along the traditional heavyweight lines, with decent low kicks and boxing as well as a haymaker of a right hand. This is a total mismatch of a fight though.

Porter on his back is immediately in trouble and his takedown defence is essentially non-existent, especially against someone as dynamic and talented as Almeida. Once he gets it there it’s a straight up assault, so expect a quick win for Almeida where he just pounds on him until the referee steps in.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Knockout, Round 1

Joseph Holmes (7-2) vs Alen Amedovski (8-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An interesting middleweight bout is the featured prelim bout of the night. Holmes made his UFC debut on short notice and suffered defeat to Jamie Pickett in his last bout, while Amedovski returns to fight for the first time since getting knocked out in 17 seconds back in 2019 by John Phillips.

Holmes is a well-rounded fighter with good height and range, using his kicks well and having some great chops on the ground to score submission wins too. Amedovski has been away for three years, so he may be a completely changed fighter. But the last time he fought he was a brawler with limited fight IQ considering he stood in the pocket and slugged it out with Phillips.

With that said, it’s impossible for me to go against Holmes. He has the ability to land at will from distance, has the durability to take Amedovski’s best shots, he’s been more active and his ground game is levels above anything we’ve seen in the past from his opponent. Holmes gets him down and strangles him early for the win.
PICK – Joseph Holmes via Submission, Round 1

ufc vegas 55: holm vs vieira – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 47: Hermansson vs Strickland – Early prelims predictions

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After a short two week break following on from the return of fights in 2022, the UFC is back with a middleweight main event at UFC Vegas 47 this weekend.

In the headline fight Jack Hermansson looks to make it back-to-back wins when he takes on Sean Strickland at 185-pounds, where we could either see a new contender in the division or find out that neither are championship calibre.

Last time out at UFC 270 we had a bad night, going 5/11 with one perfect pick to move to 519/813 (63.84%) with 218 perfect picks (42%).

We’ll look to improve that record here, starting with the early prelims of this 13-fight card.

Malcolm Gordon (13-5) vs Denys Bondar (16-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An exciting flyweight bout to open the card up. Gordon suffered defeat in his first two UFC bouts to Amir Albazi and Su Mudaerji, before finally getting in the win column last time out against Francisco Figueiredo at UFC Vegas 31, while Bondar makes his UFC debut on an eight-fight win streak.

Gordon is a talented striker on the feet with good technique and leg kicks, while Bondar is a relentless grinder who looks for wrestling and top control to dominate his opponents. With 16 finishes from 16 wins, his top control is so smooth and he looks for finishes over just holding the position which isn’t good news for someone like Gordon who struggles in the grappling department.

Bondar will come forward and look to score the takedown eventually and the only way that Gordon wins this is via a submission off his back or by avoiding takedowns for the entire 15 minutes. That just doesn’t seem likely to me, so I think Bondar secures a ground-and-pound finish midway through the second after wearing Gordon down.
PICK – Denys Bondar via Knockout, Round 2

Jason Witt (19-7) vs Phil Rowe (8-3) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Two welterweights looking to make an impression on the UFC fanbase in this one. Witt bounced back from a 12-second KO defeat at UFC Vegas 21 with a majority decision win over Bryan Barbarena at UFC Vegas 33, while Rowe claimed a knockout win over Orion Cosce on the same card to bounce back from his own defeat in the previous fight.

Witt is an excellent wrestler with a good gas tank, but his glass chin doesn’t help him when he comes up against true power punchers. Rowe is, unsurprisingly, a great power puncher with good technique and good range too. Rowe also has a massive 10.5 inch reach advantage and knows how to use that distance well, so he will likely step away plenty to avoid getting into grappling exchanges.

I expect Witt will be able to start the fight well and potentially take the round, but Rowe will know it only takes one big shot to put Witt down. On this occasion, I expect Rowe will survive a bad opening round off his back then get back to his feet and land a big right hand that puts Witt out, again.
PICK – Phil Rowe via Knockout, Round 2

Jailton Almeida (14-2) vs Danilo Marques (11-3) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A very fun light heavyweight bout between two Brazilians in this one. Almeida makes his UFC debut on a nine-fight win streak, who earned a contract thanks to a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Marques on the other hand saw a four-fight winning streak snapped last time out, when he got knocked out by Kennedy Nzechukwu at UFC Vegas 30.

Almeida has previously described himself as ‘the Brazilian Khabib’ and you can see why in his fighting style. ‘Malhadinho’ looks to get takedowns quickly and with little energy being exerted, before wrapping up the legs and landing damage and advancing position. He has finished all his victories, with nine of them coming via submission. Marques on the other hand is also a talented grappler, who has some good kicks and looks to set up grappling exchanges once he’s closed the distance.

If Marques tries to engage in grappling then he’ll find himself quickly outmatched by the athleticism and power of Almeida. On the feet, it’s a pretty even match up but Almeida once again seems to have the advantage and while his cardio is untested at this level, we watched Marques’ fail him in his most recent fight. Overall, Almeida gets top position and pushes for submissions but claims a wide decision win by the end of this one.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Decision

ufc vegas 47: new contender or middleweight wannabes?