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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims here.

Juliana Miller (4-1) vs Veronica Hardy (6-4-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight fight to open up the card with the women here. Miller earned a stoppage win on her UFC debut against Brogan Walker back in August, while Hardy was beaten in a move up to bantamweight in her last fight against Bea Malecki just over three years ago.

Miller is an excellent takedown artist with some really serious jiu-jitsu skills, but her striking is rather awkward and is a big hurdle for her if she wants to fly up this division. Hardy on the other hand is a decent submission artist herself, but her takedown defence is pretty shocking and her striking is not great too. But she has been away for three years and it’s possible that she has reinvented herself.

The likelihood of that though is highly unlikely, although she is only 27 years old. The most likely outcome here is that “Killer” Miller gets a takedown early on and just controls Hardy on the ground until either an opening for a submission pops up or the buzzer goes for the end of the round.
PICK – Juliana Miller via Decision

Jai Herbert (12-4-1) vs Ludovit Klein (19-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An absolute banger of a striking fight in the lightweight division up next. Herbert has had an exciting time in the UFC but he’s been largely unsuccessful going 2-3, with a KO defeat to Ilia Topuria at UFC London in March last year before getting back to winning ways at the second UFC London card in July with a decision over Kyle Nelson. Klein on the other hand is on a two-fight win streak, with a split decision over Devonte Smith before a unanimous decision win over Mason Jones on that July London card himself.

Herbert is a fantastic boxer with great power in his hands, but his chin hasn’t proved to be the best so far and he seems to leave it hanging in the air quite a lot. Klein is a fantastic kickboxer with fearsome kicks in his arsenal and great power too, and he seems to be more durable and has better cardio since moving up from featherweight. Stylistically this is going to be a kickboxing match pretty much, and Klein is the far superior striker.

If Herbert can use his reach and pressure Klein he will have success, but he has never really been one to fight that way in the past so I expect the Slovakian “Mr Highlight” to get the job done and get the fans on their feet early on.
PICK – Ludovit Klein via Knockout, Round 1

Joanne Wood (15-8) vs Luana Carolina(8-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Another women’s flyweight scrap up next. Joanne Wood was on the verge of a title shot before losing to Jennifer Maia, before victory over Jessica Eye. Since then she has lost three in a row though, dropping a decision to Lauren Murphy before being submitted by Taila Santos and Alexa Grasso. Carolina on the other hand was on a two-fight win streak after wins over Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez, before a spinning back elbow from Molly McCann last March knocked her unconscious and snapped that streak.

Wood is a really tidy all-round fighter, with some very solid striking and kicks as well as a decent submission game to go with some basic wrestling. Considering Carolina struggled with all of that against McCann, who is much smaller and nowhere near as technical as Wood, that’s a big problem. Carolina will walk forward and try to box, but I expect that Wood should still have too much for her.

Despite the fact she has lost four of her last five, none of them have been against average competition and Wood should still be far too good for Carolina. Expect a dominant decision win.
PICK – Joanne Wood via Decision

Jake Hadley (9-1) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-6) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An absolute banger in the men’s flyweight division up next. Hadley had been flying before suffering defeat in his official UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, but he bounced back with a submission win over Carlos Candelario back in November. Gordon was on a two-fight win streak before his UFC 280 fight with Muhammad Mokaev, where he was super competitive before being submitted by an armbar with 34 seconds remaining.

Hadley goes by the nickname “White Kong” because of his excellent grappling skills, but he’s also a more than capable boxer too. Gordon is a technical fighter who has good skills all-around, but nothing exceptional that really stands out. Gordon’s usual game plan sees him mix his striking with his wrestling and top control, so Hadley will have to be at his best defensively to ensure he doesn’t end up on his back.

I expect Hadley to use his boxing a lot more than usual and even mix in some of his own takedowns to essentially out Gordon Malcolm Gordon. He’ll have to be at his best to do it, but expect Hadley to get the nod on the cards in a competitive bout.
PICK – Jake Hadley via Decision

Christian Duncan (7-0) vs Dusko Todorovic (12-3) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An absolute banger in the middleweight division between two powerhouses. Duncan makes his UFC debut as an unbeaten fighter with six finishes from seven fights, while Todorovic has won two of his last three including a knockout win over Jordan Wright most recently back in October last year.

Duncan is an elite striker with a super unorthodox style and off-beat rhythm, but incredible power with his taekwondo background. Todorovic is a power striker with heavy hands, but he often leaves his chin up in the air and sometimes has to mix in his wrestling to avoid a war on the feet.

But his wrestling isn’t very good and while Duncan’s takedown defence hasn’t been the best so far in his career, he has enough on the feet to catch Todorovic clean at some point in the early rounds to claim a statement win.
PICK – Christian Duncan via Knockout, Round 2

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 64: Rodriguez vs Lemos – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex once again this weekend for a big women’s flyweight main event between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos.

The two ranked contenders will be looking to earn victory in the five-round headliner with an eye on a future title shot in 2023.

There are other big names on the card including Neil Magny, Daniel Rodriguez and Miranda Maverick.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 63 it wasn’t the best card, but we went 7/11 with two perfect picks to move to 760/1177 (64.57%) with 319 perfect picks (41.97%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Tamires Vidal (6-1) vs Ramona Pascual (6-4) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

An interesting women’s bantamweight scrap opens up the card. Vidal is making her UFC debut on a five-fight win streak, with her only defeat coming in her second professional fight against current UFC fighter Karol Rosa. Pascual has lost her two octagon appearances, dropping decisions to Josiane Nunes and most recently Joselyne Edwads at UFC 275.

Vidal is a jiu-jitsu practitioner who has moved across to MMA, and her submission skills are solid. But outside of that, she is very limited and really struggles if she’s not on the mat. Pascual on the other hand is a decent striker with good clinch work, but her defence is non-existent. This is a weird fight, between two very limited fighters.

But Vidal has shown that she knows about two takedowns and has a big overhand right. Outside of that, she’s completely lost on the feet. Considering Pascual has UFC experience and some good boxing combinations plus a strong clinch, she should be able to land flush and keep the fight standing to secure a finish at some point midway through.
PICK – Ramona Pascual via Knockout, Round 2

Carlos Candelario (8-2) vs Jake Hadley (8-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Fun flyweight bout next up as the men enter the cage for the first time on this card. Candelario lost a split decision on Dana White’s Contender Series but his next bout was still in the UFC, but ended in a defeat to Tatsuro Taira back in May. Hadley on the other hand earned a submission win on the Contender Series, but his UFC debut went the same way when he lost to Allan Nascimento on the same card in May.

Candelario is a technical striker with some okay submission skills, but his issue is a lack of pure dynamism and athleticism. Hadley on the other hand is a physical specimen with a fantastic gas tank and great speed, and his grappling is where he excels. With that said, his technique on the feet isn’t bad either and he can hold his own. This is tough to call, because Candelario has the skillset to nullify Hadley like Nascimento did.

But with a lack of snap on his strikes and Hadley having a big advantage in the grappling too, it allows him to be a bit more free with his own strikes. If Hadley took anything from his first professional loss last time out, he should be able to bounce back now and earn a solid win here.
PICK – Jake Hadley via Decision

Liudvik Sholinian (9-3-1) vs Johnny Munoz (11-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Bantamweight scrap up next between two guys with losing records in the UFC. Sholinian came into the UFC on a four-fight win streak, but saw that snapped by Jack Shore in a dominant showing. This is his first fight in over a year. Munoz on the other hand is 1-2 in the UFC, losing to Nate Maness and Tony Graveley most recently with a win over Jamey Simmons sandwiched in between them.

Sholinian is a pressure fighter who likes to walk forward and touch his opponent with combinations, but his speed and power are hardly fearsome. That allows people to survive for the most part. Munoz is an excellent submission artist on the mat with decent striking on the feet, and an ability to grapple for days with his excellent cardio. This seems like one way traffic for the most part in Munoz’s favour.

If he is able to overcome the pretty standard pressure coming his way, he should be able to shoot for takedowns at will and be able to snatch up his neck. Sholinian’s best bet is to stall as much as possible and do some damage while avoiding extended grappling sequences, but that seems highly unlikely so Munoz should claim the win.
PICK – Johnny Munoz via Submission, Round 1

Polyana Viana (12-5) vs Jinh Yu Frey (11-7) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Two UFC veterans go head-to-head in this one. Viana has lost four of her last six fights, but saw her two-fight win streak of first-round armbars over Emily Whitmire and Mallory Martin (UFC 258) come to an end when Tabatha Ricci earned a decision win last time out. Frey on the other hand beat Gloria De Paula (UFC Vegas 21) and Ashley Yoder via decision, before losing to Vanessa Demopolous last time out back in June.

Viana is a grappling specialist, with all eight of her finishes coming via submission and the rest of her game lagging way behind that. Frey alternatively is a pressure fighter who has a well rounded skillset, but she has struggled in the past to really use them to the best of her abilities. Both of these women have good qualities, but they seem to lean on their bad habits when things don’t go their way.

That to me is a worse thing for Viana, who tends to go for hail Mary submissions if that’s happening and often allows her opponent to control how the fight goes while she waits for an opportunity. Waiting here will do her no good, so I expect Frey to be able to do enough damage on the feet and in top control to stay safe and earn the judges’ nod.
PICK – Jinh Yu Frey via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz vs Rakic – Main card predictions

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A huge light heavyweight main event with title implications headlines the UFC Vegas 54 card this week after a brilliant card last week.

Former champions Jan Blachowicz returns to the octagon for the first time since losing his title to take on the highly rated Aleksandar Rakic, with the winner hoping it will take them towards a title shot.

In a sneaky good card, we’ll also see the likes of Davey Grant take on Louis Smolka and Katlyn Chookagian taking on Amanda Ribas to give you plenty to get your teeth into.

Last week at UFC 274 we went 9/14 with six perfect picks, taking us to 622/965 (64.46%) with 265 perfect picks (42.6%). You can check out our complete record here.

We’ll look to improve on that record here and after starting with the early prelims for the night, and moving on to the rest of the prelims section of the card, we finish off with the main card picks here.

Jake Hadley (8-0) vs Allan Nascimento (18-6) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A grapple-heavy affair coming up to open the main card here. Hadley is an undefeated former Cage Warriors champion, who earned his UFC debut with a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nascimento on the other hand was defeated in his UFC debut back at UFC 267, dropping a split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov.

Both Hadley and Nascimento are grapplers by nature, but they’re different in their approach. Hadley is a brilliant wrestler, who looks to smother his opponents with his takedowns and work for submissions by taking the back as quickly as possible. Nascimento looks to stand and use his kicking game, unafraid to be dragged into a scrap because he knows if he’s on the ground his submission game is excellent too. This is a super evenly matched fight and very hard to call.

One advantage that Hadley has is that he’s comfortable whether he’s on top or on the bottom, while Nascimento does not look comfortable when he’s underneath someone else. They will contest takedowns against the cage without a doubt and it will be finely contested, but in these matches it’s those fine margins that make the difference and I think Hadley claims the win.
PICK – Jake Hadley via Decision

Frank Camacho (22-9) vs Manuel Torres (12-2) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An interesting lightweight bout between a veteran likely on his way out and an upcoming talent from Mexico. Camacho has lost four of his last five stretching back to 2018 and was KO’d in just 41 seconds by Justin Jaynes in his last fight at UFC Vegas 3. Torres is making his UFC debut here on a three-fight win streak after victory on Dana White’s Contender Series back in October last year.

Camacho is a veteran of the sport despite being only 32 years old as his record shows. ‘The Crank’ is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he’s more known for his slugfest style where he brawls and entertains. Torres is a very physical and aggressive fighter, with great power in his hands and a killer instinct with 11 finishes in 12 fights. This is a real test to see where Camacho stands in his career.

Both men have the power to really hurt the other, but whether Camacho’s chin can still stand up after his latest knockout is a big worry. There is the fact that he has a lot more experience, and if he mixes up his attacks to include some ground game then he has a great chance of victory. With that said though, it’s not often that he leans on his grappling as his initial game plan, so I expect a hungry Torres to claim a big stoppage win.
PICK – Manuel Torres via Knockout, Round 1

Katlyn Chookagian (17-4) vs Amanda Ribas (11-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two women’s flyweights looking to get into title contention in a division dominated by one queen. Chookagian has already fought for the belt and got dominated, but she has gone 4-1 since then, including wins in each of her last three against Cynthia Calvillo (UFC 255), Viviane Araujo (UFC 262) and Jennifer Maia (UFC Vegas 46) all by decision. Ribas saw her hype reach an all-time high when she submitted Paige Van Zant at UFC 251, but she was brutally stopped by Marina Rodriguez next time out at UFC 257. She bounced back with a great decision win over Virna Jandiroba at UFC 267 in her last bout.

Chookagian is a karate fighter who uses her range really well and volume strikes to dominate her opponents. Her body kicks are excellent while she has good boxing too and often just completely outworks her opponent. Ribas is a pretty rubbish striker on the feet, but on the ground she is a terrifying prospect with her submission skills. The problem here is that she may not be able to get the fight to the ground.

‘Blonde fighter’ is very good when it comes to ensuring fights go the way she wants, unless it’s against Valentina Shevchenko. She dominates the range, has good takedown defence and is the better striker as well as having the size advantage. Expect her to put in a vintage performance to claim yet another decision win.
PICK – Katlyn Chookagian via Decision

Davey Grant (13-6) vs Louis Smolka (17-8) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Very fun 135-pound scrap coming up in this one. Grant has lost his last two in a row, dropping decisions to Marlon Vera and then Adrian Yanez respectively. Smolka has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights, being on the wrong end of a knockout finish to Vince Morales at UFC Vegas 44 in his most recent outing.

Grant is a terrific grappler who has completely transformed his game in recent years to start chasing knockouts with nasty combinations and wild hooks to the head. Smolka is another entertaining fighter, who uses his cardio as a weapon while throwing good combinations and threatening with chokes when the opportunity presents itself. When you match them skill for skill, Smolka seems to be in a world of trouble with this one.

The Brit is bigger, stronger, the better grappler and hits harder. His cardio is more than good enough to really go the distance at a good pace too and he is by far the more durable of the two fighters. This one will likely turn into a war, and that means Grant clips him midway through the fight for the finish.
PICK – Davey Grant via Knockout, Round 2

Ryan Spann (19-7) vs Ion Cutelaba (16-6-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

The big boys take up the co-main event slot in this one as light heavyweights collide. Spann has lost two of his last three, including getting absolutely squashed by Anthony Smith in the first round in his last bout. Cutelaba overcame a three fight winless run after KO losses to Magomed Ankalaev and a draw with Dustin Jacoby at UFC Vegas 25, by earning a decision win in his last bout against Devin Clark.

Spann is a tidy grappler on the mat with 11 submission wins to his name in his career. His wrestling is decent, while his striking on the feet is okay, but anything outside of his comfort zones is a huge problem for him. Cutelaba on the other hand is a super aggressive fighter who charges forward and threatens with constant takedowns by landing huge power punches in combinations. Spann needs to be able to get this fight down with himself on top to win this, because he’s outmatched by Cutelaba.

‘Hulk’ will look to put Spann on his back foot regularly and will try for takedowns against the cage before swinging huge combinations to try and take his head off. Spann won’t be comfortable with that, and when that happens he tends to just kind of melt away. That’s not ideal against someone so aggressive, so Cutelaba could claim a violent finish early on.
PICK – Ion Cutelaba via Knockout, Round 1

Jan Blachowicz (28-9) vs Aleksandar Rakic (14-2) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A fight that could easily have been contested for the 205lbs title at some point last year now takes place as a contender bout in the division. Blachowicz was dominated in his last outing by Glover Teixeira as he lost the belt at UFC 267, bringing to an end his five fight winning streak. Rakic on the other hand has won his last two, with just one defeat since losing his pro debut. He dominated Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos (UFC 259) in his most recent bouts.

Blachowicz is a brilliant fighter who is very well-rounded. He has got the legendary ‘Polish power’ in both hands where his boxing combinations score him knockout wins, while his wrestling is also good as he showed against Israel Adesanya back at UFC 259. Rakic’s wrestling has been shown to be brilliant too, while he also has scary power in his hands earning him nine career KO wins. This is a super hard fight to call, because both guys match up so well.

Rakic is nine years younger and the fact that Teixeira was able to take Blachowicz down so easily and control him on the mat will be of big encouragement to him. It shows that he is capable of being controlled and Rakic is very good at that. I think Blachowicz is now going to start a steady decline as age catches up to him, and Rakic is going to pile on the misery for a huge win and secure himself the next title shot.
PICK – Aleksandar Rakic via Decision

ufc vegas 54: blachowicz vs rakic – prelims predictions