Tag Archives: Khama Worthy

UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs Vettori – Early prelims predictions

The UFC returns to the Apex once again for UFC Vegas 41 this weekend as Paulo Costa takes on Marvin Vettori in the middleweight division.

The Brazilian is looking to earn some respect back following his excuses and defeat to Israel Adesanya, while Vettori is looking to finally get that marquee name on his resume following his most recent defeat to… Israel Adesanya.

It’s not the most stacked card this week in name value, but there are some very fun fights on the card that we’ll look to predict.

Last week at UFC Vegas 40 we struggled at went 5/10 with zero perfect picks, moving us to 439/689 (63.72%) with 187 perfect picks (42.6%) since June 2020.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.


Jonathan Martinez (13-4) vs Zviad Lazishvili (13-0) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A super short notice fight to open up the card as an undefeated champion makes his UFC debut. Martinez has done well in the UFC but was beaten by knockout last time out against Davey Grant at UFC Vegas 21, while Lazishvili earned a submission win in his last bout in September 2020.

Martinez is a technical boxer with a great jab and some heavy low kicks, but he has a lot of issues with his weight at these smaller divisions. Lazishvili is a grappler extraordinaire who uses his excellent wrestling to get the fight to the ground and work for his submissions.

Lazishvili will look to close the distance, wrestle Martinez to the ground and hold him there until a submission shows itself or the referee brings the round to an end. Martinez is good in the grappling himself but he won’t want to find himself under Lazishvili. It should be a banger, but I have to go with the undefeated fighter for his ability to dictate where the fight goes.
PICK – Zviad Lazishvili via Decision

Livinha Souza (14-3) vs Randa Markos (10-12-1) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A fun strawweight bout is scheduled for the card here between two fighters coming off defeats. Souza got a win against Ashley Yoder at UFC 252, before she lost via TKO to Amanda Lemos at UFC 259 most recently. Markos on the other hand has lost four straight, including a submission to Mackenzie Dern at UFC Vegas 11 and then via DQ last time out at UFC Vegas 25 for an illegal up-kick.

Souza is a good wrestler with some really strong takedowns in her arsenal, but she is one of the best when it comes to poor game plans and throwing away fights. Markos on the other hand is a good striker, who has seen her takedown defence exposed in recent fights. Souza has a habit of trading strikes with opponents even when it’s their strength and her weakness.

If she remembers that she’s a judo black belt and has a huge advantage on the ground in this fight, she would win relatively easily. If she chooses to strike, which she almost certainly will, she gives Markos a chance. Unfortunately for Markos though, the takedown is always there against her and I expect Souza will use it at some point to earn a decision win.
PICK – Livinha Souza via Decision


———-

Jeff Molina (9-2) vs Daniel Lacerda (11-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A banger at flyweight in this one between two hot prospects. Molina in on an eight-fight win streak, winning his UFC proper debut via decision against Qileng Aori at UFC 261. Lacerda in the other corner is on a three-fight win streak, all coming in the first-round and he makes his UFC debut.

Molina is a technical boxer on the feet with great volume and good cardio, while Lacerda is a violent kickboxer with some brilliant submissions off his back and in his back pocket. Molina has a great jab, good low kicks and his takedown defence is probably average which sets up a brilliant fight. Lacerda has insane power in his legs with kicks and scary power in his hands, never going beyond the second-round in his career.

Lacerda’s only defeat came via an injury to his shoulder, but the fact he has never gone into deep water is a worry. We don’t know how good his cardio is and we know that Molina can control the pace for a full 15 minutes. With that said, Lacerda has a brilliant killer instinct and because of his submission game the kickboxing could potentially open up for him to score a finish.
PICK – Daniel Lacerda via Knockout, Round 1

Khama Worthy (16-8) vs Jai Herbert (10-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight scrap between the veteran Worthy and the newbie fighting for his UFC career in Herbert. Worthy has lost each of his last two via knockout, getting stopped by Ottman Azaitar at UFC Vegas 10 before Jamie Mullarkey KO’d him at UFC 260. Herbert has also been stopped in his two UFC outings, getting KO’d by Francisco Trinaldo at UFC Fight Island 3 before a submission defeat to Renato Moicano at UFC Vegas 30.

Both of these guys have got genuine knockout power in their strikes, with Worthy earning nine KO wins in his career and Herbert earning eight KO wins in his career. Both guys are kickboxers at their core, but Worthy is far more power-based rather than technical, while Herbert is tidy striker with the power to match.

Worthy is likely to try and close distance and land one heavy shot to turn the lights out, but if Herbert can stay long and use his range well he will have an edge. The longer the fight goes, Herbert has more advantages under his belt and I think Herbert’s power and technique together mean he can stay in there to do enough damage and save his UFC career.
PICK – Jai Herbert via Knockout, Round 2

UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou 2 – Results (Highlights)

EARLY PRELIMS

Marc-Andre Barriault def Abu Azaitar via Knockout, Round 3 (4:56)

Fast start to the bout for Azaitar as he comes out with some powerful hooks to begin but they miss the target for the most part. Barriault throws a hook back that makes Azaitar lose his balance and the two clinch up against the cage but Barriault accidentally lands a low blow for a short pause in the action. Azaitar comes forward very aggressively once more, with flurrys that end with a nice knee to the body before another clinch. Nice elbow in the clinch from Barriault but Azaitar responds with a big knee in the clinch that lands flush. Azaitar working the body well as they clinch up once again and staying very busy as we enter the final 90 seconds of the round. More knees to the body in the clinch from Azaitar but Barriault stay in there and eating, while returning with shots of his own. Nice counter left from Barriault lands in an exchange but Azaitar should take that round. 10-9.

Barriault takes the centre at the start of this round and is landing his jab well early on as Azaitar looks considerably slower than the first round. Barriault landing the better shots but then Azaitar comes forward with a nice leg kick. Azaitar throws a big hook that lands and wobbles Barriault, but he continues to come forward and continues to push a fast pace. Azaitar looks for a takedown, which his corner isn’t happy about, but Barriault defends it well to keep the fight standing. Big one-two lands from Barriault as Azaitar takes a big deep breath and is slowing down a lot. Nice uppercut lands from Azaitar and then a front kick lands but he’s very lathargic with his strikes and Barriault is walking him down now with big right hands. Barriault slips a left hook and lands three strikes in a row that wobble Azaitar but he’s staying in there and survives the round! 19-19.

Barriault takes the centre at the start of the third round and eats a big leg kick to make up ground and start landing big right hands. Azaitar is stiffened up and is fighting purely off instinct right now. Barriault lands a big right hand that drops Azaitar but the referee doesn’t stop it. Azaitar spits out his mouth guard with Barriault on top landing ground and pound and the referee stops the fight to allow him to put it back in and then the ground and pound continues, with Barriault landing huge shots. Azaitar continuing to move but it’s pure instinct and he’s taking a battering right now. This fight could be stopped at any moment but Azaitar is trying to move away. Barriault keeps landing huge strikes on the ground but the referee is letting them go with 30 seconds to go. Barriault is battering him and somehow Azaitar is surviving but the referee ends the bout with four seconds remaining! Huge win for the Canadian.

PRELIMS

Omar Morales def Shane Young via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Slow fight to this bout as both men engage in a feeling out process, both circling and flicking jabs but not going too hard. Young checks a leg kick from Morales and then both continue to just throw out feelers. Young pushes forward for a takedown against the cage but Morales defends well, puts in a body lock and reverses the position before picking up and dropping Young. Young gets back to his feet quickly and they clinch up against the cage to a stalemate as we enter the final minute of the round. Morales lands a nice uppercut as Young tries to enter for another takedown and they clinch up once more as the round ends. 10-9 Morales, but close.

Second round starts and Morales throws a leg kick pretty early that gets caught and Young immediately moves into top position. Morales defending off his back and as Young moves for a leg lock, Morales is able to stuff it and get back to his feet quickly. Morales doing well on the feet with a nice jab and some good leg kicks too, but Young is checking them well and closing the distance well. Young shoots in for a takedown again but Morales defends it well, then throws a knee that just misses. Morales takes the centre well and forces Young backwards then lands a nice leg kick, followed by an uppercut that Young just eats. Two jabs and then a one-two from Morales lands clean and forces Young backwards again. Morales pours on the pressure towards the end of the round with his right hand and a knee attempt as they end in a clinch. 20-18 Morales for me.

Morales looks to take the centre early in the third round and throws his jab well, but Young does well to change it around and they clinch in the centre. Morales is able to get a trip and gets into a dominant position in side control, but Young is able to scramble and chase a single leg takedown of his own to get back to his feet. They clinch against the cage again and Young shows a physical strength advantage, but Morales lands a couple of nice leg kicks as they separate and fighting well behind his jab. Nice right hand lands from Morales as we enter the final minute, but Young keeps coming forward and then ducks a high kick to look for a takedown but Morales defends well to end the fight and likely take the win. 30-27 Morales.

Michal Oleksiejczuk def Modestas Bukauskas via Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)

Bukauskas opens the fight with a spinning heel kick that misses by a matter of inches, before Michal steps forward and lands a big left hand early. BUkauskas lands a decent right hand but Michal is walking him towards the cage well. Bukauskas shoots for a takedown but it’s well stuffed, before a clinch exchange allows Bukauskas to show his strength advantage as he powers him all the way across the octagon. Bukauskas lands a nice right hand flush and then steps forward with a nice flurry that hurts Michal! He goes for a finish but Michal defends well and recovers. Bukauskas throws a straight that Michal slips and throws a big overhand left that lands clean! Michal starts walking Bukauskas backwards again and misses with a left hand but then lands a nice right hand. Bukauskas throwing lots of kicks to try and maintain the distance but Michal continues to step forward and close it. Both men land a few more shots and Bukauskas ends the round with a head kick that is partially blocked. Really competitive round, I lean 10-9 to Bukauskas.

Second round is more of the same, as Michal comes forward and throws lots of hooks but Bukauskas continues to circle on the outside and uses his length well to keep a distance. Michal keeps marching forward and lands a nice left hand but Bukauskas eats it well. Michal throws it again and lands flush on the chin, but Bukauskas continues to move well and then throws a nice front kick to the body. Bukauskas lands two straight rights nicely then misses a wild overhand, as Michal looks to grab a leg but does nothing with is. Bukauskas lands a nice lead elbow but Michal clinches up and eats it, before Bukauskas shows the physicality advantage again and is able to reverse the position and then separate. Bukauskas lands a head kick and then ends with a round with a big flurry of hooks that land, but Michal still there and probably takes that round. 19-19 for me but it’s close.

Bukauskas and Michal in the final round following a similar pattern to the previous two, with Bukauskas circling on the outside. Both men throw a right hook but it’s Bukauskas who lands better and then he follows it up with a straight and an uppercut too. Michal goes in for a body lock looking for a takedown but Bukauskas defends it really well and uses the cage well to keep the fight standing. Michal throws a couple of knees but nothing that troubles Bukauskas who is able to separate and is starting to land some good strikes of his own. Michal continues to march forward but Bukauskas is happy to trade with him now as we enter the final 90 seconds. Big right hook lands from Michal but Bukauskas eats it and throws a right hand of his own. Michal throws a huge uppercut to the body that has really hurt Bukauskas but Michal hasn’t noticed how hurt he is and both men go out swinging as the fight goes the distance. Great fight, 29-28 Bukauskas for me.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov def Jared Gooden via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Gooden opens up the round super relaxed, carrying his hands down by his hips ready for any takedown attempts and throwing some jabs that immediately redden the eye of Nurmagomedov. Gooden has a big speed advantage and is able to get in and out quickly but Nurmagomedov not rushing for any grappling and is throwing his jab very well too. Nurmagomedov closes the distance and lands a big one-two flush on Gooden’s chin that rocks him! He closes the distance and looks to take the fight down but Gooden is able to escape quickly. Nurmagomedov throws a strong leg kick and then a big knee in the clinch too. Another jab from Nurmagomedov has Gooden backing up and he’s now started to carry his hands a bit higher in respect of Nurmagomedov’s strikes. A big left hook from Nurmagomedov lands again and he just misses with a follow up head kick, then ends the round with a nice jab. 10-9 Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov takes the centre in the second round and lands his jab well once again as Gooden starts to throw his right hand some more. Nurmagomedov steps back and slips the punches brilliantly before landing a nice right hand of his own. Nurmagomedov is piecing Gooden up on the feet right now, completely dominating the striking exchanges. Big right hand lands and then throws a huge head kick that lands and hurts Gooden! Nurmagomedov backs Gooden against the cage and looks for a clinch, throwing elbows and a nice left hand. Gooden can’t get near him right now as he eats another jab flush to the nose. Big left hand lands clean on Gooden whose chin is holding up well right now as the round comes to an end. 20-18 Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov using his jab once again early on, completing in control of the striking exchanges. Gooden takes the centre and loads up a nice uppercut but Nurmagomedov shoots in for a takedown and ends up with a body lock on the back. He picks him up and drops him down, but Gooden does well to get back to his feet before Nurmagomedov shoots in for a takedown once again and ends up on top. Gooden throwing great elbows from the bottom but Nurmagomedov eating them well and controlling the position before landing some ground and pound of his own. He steps over into half guard and starts setting up an arm triangle, but Gooden is aware and defending it well. Both men throwing body strikes on the ground as we enter the final minute of the round. Nurmagomedov controls the position for the remainder of the round and should take a comfortable decision win.

Alonzo Menifield def Fabio Cherant via Submission (Von Flue Choke), Round 1 (1:11)

Menifield comes out flying with a big one two and then goes for a takedown early. Cherant looks to lock up a guillotine but Menifield is able to turn him and slam him down with a big takedown into side control. Cherant keeps hold of the neck, all the while Menifield is synching in a Von Flue choke. He gets it tight and heavy and Cherant has no choice but to tap out! What a win for Menifield!

MAIN CARD

Jamie Mullarkey def Khama Worthy via Knockout, Round 1 (0:46)

Fast start to the round for both guys as Mullarkey lands a nice left hand early before Worthy responds with a couple of jabs. Mullarkey fakes a couple of shots and then throws a big, tight left hook that catches Worthy on the chin and gets him wobbling and faceplants! Mullarkey rushes in with a few ground and pound strikes and the referee steps in the wave it off! Huge win for Mullarkey!

Miranda Maverick def Gillian Robertson via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)

Nice active start to the fight from both ladies, with Maverick throwing nice combinations early and staying out of range of Robertson’s attacks. Maverick holding the centre well and and landing the better strikes in the exchanges on the feet, but Robertson not backing up too much and throwing some strikes of her own. Maverick lands a nice short-right hook and lots of leading leg kicks to the body. Maverick pushes Robertson onto the ground and then jumps on top with really heavy top pressure, then lands a couple of ground and pound strikes as Robertson looks to get back up to her feet. Maverick shoots a power double leg and gets the fight down with ease as the round comes to an end to take the opening round. 10-9 Maverick.

Busy start to the second round for Maverick as she seems to be more aggressive, landing some heavy punches and coming forward with more intent. Nice superman punch lands from Maverick then Robertson changes levels and shoots in for a takedown, then secures top position. Maverick tries to escape by kicking out and swinging her hips, but Robertson adjusts perfectly and looks to take the back now. Robertson sticking to her like glue and trying to find submissions, but Maverick is doing well to keep moving and not settling for positions. Robertson keeps looking for the positions but Maverick is eventually able to get back to the feet with about 45 seconds remaining in the round. Maverick spends the rest of the round walking Robertson down and landing big shots against the cage but should still be a Robertson round. 19-19.

Maverick comes out swinging in this third round and is walking Robertson down, landing some big straight punches. Robertson shoots for takedowns but Maverick defends them twice and then is able to take Robertson’s back herself. She switches into full mount and then side control and is landing some big ground and pound strikes, but Robertson is threatening with an armbar. Maverick is able to escape the armbar and gets back on top to land more ground and pound. Robertson tries to sweep her but Maverick too strong and gets back to the feet. Maverick lands a couple of straights against the cage then shoots for a takedown of her own and sees out the round in a dominant position to take a decision.

Sean O’Malley def Thomas Almeida via Knockout, Round 3 (3:52)

Good start to the round for O’Malley as he opens with a clean one-two on Almeida’s chin. O’Malley switching stances well and landing kicks to the body and legs, with Almeida seeming quite hesitant early on. O’Malley lands another one-two and then a nice spinning back kick to the body before Almeida lands a big hook of his own. O’Malley throws a big head kick that seems to land with the knee and then a big left hand drops Almeida! O’Malley walks away but the referee doesn’t wave the fight off and he goes back in with a spin kick that misses. O’Malley looking for style points for a finish but Almeida has recovered now and O’Malley sees the round out with some more clean striking. 10-9 O’Malley for sure.

O’Malley opens up with some front kicks to the body and a calf kick, but Almeida coming forward still and lands a couple of leg kicks of his own. O’Malley landing with his left hand in a one-two quite cleanly and often, but Almeida refusing to go away. Some knee stomps from O’Malley and kicks as he continues to switch stances, showing great speed to be first in the exchanges. O’Malley goes for a flying knee towards the end of the round and misses, falling onto his back. Almeida lands a big shot on the ground but O’Malley uses his long legs to defend really well and sees out the round. 20-18 O’Malley.

O’Malley opens up the round with a huge calf kick that takes Almeida’s balance away, before a knee stomp once again makes Almeida very uncomfortable. A few more leg kicks land and then O’Malley throws a nice one-two, but Almeida continues to come forward. Exchange near the cage and Almeida lands a decent left hand, but O’Malley continues to slip the majority of the shots and landing well himself. Beautiful one-two from O’Malley lands and Almeida just can’t get near him. Huge left hand as he moves backwards catches Almeida and drops him and O’Malley tries to walk off again but the referee doesn’t stop it again! O’Malley strolls over and lands one nasty ground strike that puts his lights out and that’s that! The ‘Suga’ show is back!

Vicente Luque def Tyron Woodley via Submission (D’Arce Choke), Round 1 (3:56)

Woodley comes out and immediately goes for a body lock and takedown against the cage. Luque defends it well and is able to rotate Woodley against the cage, but they fight to a stalemate and eventually separate. Woodley lands a big overhand right and then a couple of one-twos before going back to his wrestling, where Luque is able to steady him and get him back against the cage. Luque throwing punches to the body while Woodley looks for knees as they clinch up before separating. Woodley throws a huge right hand that wobbles Luque and he goes for the kill with big punches, then Luque fires back with a huge right overhand that lands on Woodley’s chin and wobbles him! Luque comes forward and throws bombs and Woodley is in trouble! He throws a hook that lands on Luque and wobbles him back then goes for a takedown but his legs give out on him. Luque drops down and locks in a d’arce choke and despite fighting it against the cage, Woodley is forced to tap! Huge win for Luque!

Francis Ngannou def Stipe Miocic via Knockout, Round 2 (0:52)

Ngannou opens the round with a heavy low kick that Miocic eats and continues to circle on the outside. Miocic lands a couple of leg kicks of his own before Ngannou explodes with a big right hand that lands clean and Miocic just eats. Ngannou explodes again and Miocic shoots in for a double leg takedown but Ngannou defends it brilliantly, sprawls and is able to take Miocic down himself! He takes the back of Miocic and starts throwing some heavy shots but the champion eats them and separates. Ngannou then throws a head kick that lands clean but once again Miocic eats it. A couple more leg kicks from Miocic in the remainder of the round, but it’s a Ngannou round. 10-9.

Miocic comes out and knows he needs to be a bit more aggressive. Ngannou being patient in the middle once more and lands a nice leg kick. Ngannou throws a big left hand that rocks Miocic and drops him! He goes for the finish and lands some big shots but Miocic gets back up and eats an uppercut. Miocic lands a massive left hand of his own but Ngannou eats it and then lands a short left hook that puts Miocic’s lights out! He lands one more huge shot before the referee gets there but this is all over! NEW CHAMPION!

UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou 2 – Main card predictions

It’s the big one, as the baddest man on the planet is decided in the main event of UFC 260 when Stipe Miocic defends his heavyweight championship against Francis Ngannou.

The two met previously during Miocic’s first reign as champion, and he dominated to a victory but yet he is still the underdog coming into this fight. Overlooking Miocic seems crazy, but it’s happening again and not least because of the sheer power of his opponent.

In the co-main event, Tyron Woodley fights for his career in the UFC as he takes on Vicente Luque after the featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega was cancelled due to a positive COVID-19 test.

Last week at UFC Vegas 22, we went 6/10 with three perfect picks to move to 262/416 (62.98%) with 118 perfect picks (45.04%).

There are scheduled to be ten bouts on this card and having already predicted the prelims here, lets look to improve it with the main card also.


Jamie Mullarkey (12-4) vs Khama Worthy (16-7) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A really fun lightweight fight between two guys looking to get back in the win column to open up this main card. Mullarkey has lost his last two bouts, dropping decisions to Brad Riddell and Faras Ziam most recently at UFC Fight Island 6. Worthy had a seven fight win streak snapped in a little over 90 seconds when he was put away but Ottman Azaitar at UFC Vegas 10 back in September.

Mullarkey is a wrestler who is capable of standing and striking, but he’s often a sitting target when it comes to the stand-up game. Worthy is a powerful striker with nine knockout wins in his career. If Mullarkey can’t get the fight to the ground, he is in big trouble. He’s got a granite chin but with the power that Worthy hits at, plus the fact that Worthy isn’t a sloppy wrestler himself, ‘The Death Star’ should be able to get himself a hard-fought victory.
PICK – Khama Worthy via Knockout, Round 3

Gillian Robertson (9-5) vs Miranda Maverick (10-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two very highly rated women’s flyweight prospects go head-to-head in this one.

Another chance for Robertson to make an impact on the division as she takes on Maverick in the flyweight division. Robertson was on a two-fight win streak prior to getting dominated by Taila Santos in December, while Maverick is on a four-fight win streak including a doctor’s stoppage between rounds last time out against Liana Jojua at UFC 254.

Robertson is a strong wrestler who’s main aim is always to get the fight to the ground, with her six submission wins standing out on her record. Maverick is a great, technical striker with good wrestling of her own. Robertson’s striking is iffy at best, while Maverick often leaves herself open for takedowns by coming forward. Both can attack the weaknesses of their opponent but Maverick is the better all round fighter and I think she can come away with a wide decision win.
PICK – Miranda Maverick via Decision

Sean O’Malley (12-1) vs Thomas Almeida (22-4) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

My pick for fight of the night here in the bantamweight division as ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley makes his return to the octagon following his first defeat to take on Thomas Almeida. O’Malley was en-route to superstardom, stopping Eddie Wineland at UFC 250 before being stopped by Marlon Vera at UFC 252, getting knocked out after a leg injury. Almeida has suffered all of his professional defeats inside his last five fights, including three in a row and most recently against Jonathan Martinez at UFC Fight Island 6.

O’Malley is a super-technical striker who can work off either stance and has legitimate one-punch knockout power. Almeida is a great technical striker himself, but his biggest issue is his durability. Almeida has been knocked out whenever he’s been hit clean and O’Malley is one of the most accurate strikers in the 135lbs division. This is certainly a favourable match up for O’Malley to get back on track towards a title shot with a height, reach, technique and power advantages and he should get an impressive win.
PICK – Sean O’Malley via Knockout, Round 1

Tyron Woodley (19-6-1) vs Vicente Luque (19-7-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A very big fight in the welterweight division between the former champion Tyron Woodley and the ‘Silent Assassin’ Vicente Luque. Woodley has lost three in a row, including most recently when he verbally submitted to Colby Covington at UFC Vegas 11 following a rib injury. Luque on the other hand is on a two-fight win streak, knocking out Niko Price before a stoppage win over Randy Brown at UFC Vegas 5.

Woodley is known for his fantastic wrestling defence and impressive knockout power, but in his last three fights he’s been gun shy when it comes to striking and has been taken down with ease. Luque is a boxer who pressures his opponents and walks them down, happy to take a shot to give one in the belief he will knock them out. Luque hits harder than any of Woodley’s last three opponents and is a long-time training partner of both Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. If Woodley comes back in this fight and shows his old self where he throws heavy punches and threatens with his wrestling, he could very well get the win. But it’s hard to expect that from a guy who’s lost his last 14 rounds in a row and was finished in the 15th. Luque has youth on his side, is confident and has great pressure, work-rate and power, so I think he is able to get a win in this fight.
PICK – Vicente Luque via Decision

Stipe Miocic (20-3) vs Francis Ngannou (15-3) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

The baddest man on the planet will be decided as the greatest heavyweight of all-time makes the second defence of his second reign as champion against ‘The Predator’ Francis Ngannou. Miocic beat Ngannou back in 2018, before going 2-1 in a trilogy with Daniel Cormier which came to an end at UFC 252. Ngannou lost his next fight after that loss to Derrick Lewis, but has since won four-in-a-row against Curtis Blaydes, Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez and Jairzinho Rozenstruik all via first round knockout.

Miocic is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights ever, with fantastic wrestling skills but also legitimate knockout power himself. Ngannou is a banger, who comes in with explosive power and one-punch knockouts. The first fight was incredibly one-sided, with Miocic wrestling his way to a dominant win. Since then, Ngannou has become “obsessed” with grappling but it’s not something we’ve been able to see in the cage yet. Miocic is quicker, the better wrestler and in the first fight he was able to eat Ngannou’s punches that landed. He’s taken a lot of damage since then, being KO’d by Cormier so whether he can take the punches this time is questionable but he is so much better than that first fight too.

Ngannou’s skillset is limited despite his success, but his power is absolutely unreal. The issue is that he’s so big his cardio just can’t go for 25 minutes. Miocic can and has several times. It only takes one punch from Ngannou, but it’s hard to see this fight going much differently to the first one – except this time I think Miocic gets the stoppage on an exhausted, grounded Ngannou.
PICK – Stipe Miocic via Knockout, Round 4

UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs Hill – Results (Highlights)

EARLY PRELIMS

Sabina Mazo def Justine Kish via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 3 (3:57)

Kish comes out to start the round super aggressively, charging in with wild swings and some heavy leg kicks. Mazo uses her reach well to get away and land nice shots of her own, before a big head kick settles the fight down. Kish trying to use speed to get inside and land but Mazo staying calm and eating the leg kicks but landing some jabs. 30 seconds to go and Kish catches a kick and takes the fight to the ground but good defence sees nothing land as the round ends. 10-9 Mazo.

Kish aggressive once again in this second round and the leg kicks are starting to add up now. Mazo looks timid and hesitant to throw shots from range and Kish using her speed well to step in and land well. She seems to be the more powerful of the two but she is struggling with the range to make them really count. As the round goes on Kish seems to be getting stronger while Mazo looks a little lost. 19-19, all to play for in the final round.

Mazo using her reach really well in this round, landing two more big head kicks and the jab very effectively. Kish continuing to push forward with leg kicks and strikes on the inside but Mazo’s reach causing a lot more problems now. Big head kick lands again and Kish is down! Mazo pounces on the back and goes for the rear naked choke and eventually sinks it in for the tap. Huge win for Mazo!

Bryan Barbarena def Anthony Ivy via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)

The whole first half of the first round is essentially Anthony Ivy trying to complete his first takedown attempt of the night. Barbarena defends really well against the cage and lands some nothing shots to distract Ivy but manages to stay on his feet throughout. Barbarena then comes forward and lands some nice shots that see Ivy turtle up in a defensive mode, trying to get away. Ivy wants absolutely nothing to do with this stand-up battle and lands a big takedown 30 seconds before the end of the round. 10-9 Barbarena.

Second round is more of the same as Ivy looks intent on getting a takedown but Barbarena is defending brilliantly and landing nice return shots of his own. Every time he lands Ivy looks hurt, but he then returns fire with a shot of his own. Bam Bam’s cardio looks much better as the round draws to a close and he starts walking Ivy down landing elbows. 20-18 Barbarena.

Final round and Ivy lands a takedown inside the first minute and Barbarena is seen clearly mouthing “sh*t!”. He gets back to his feet quickly and starts landing heavy shots yet again. Every time there’s any type of exchange, Ivy shoots for a takedown quickly and Barbarena defends them mostly. The pattern continues for the rest of the round until the end. 30-27 Bam Bam for me.

PRELIMS

Jalin Turner def Brok Weaver via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2 (4:20)

A fun start to the round as Turner comes out very aggressive and starts lighting up Weaver early. Lightning quick jabs and crosses bust up the nose of Weaver and Turner looks really sharp. Fight settles down with Turner throwing jabs and Weaver throwing leg kicks before Turner throws a big right hand that drops Weaver! He jumps on him looking to finish but good defending by Weaver gets him back to his feet and he scores a takedown of his own as the round comes to an end. 10-9 Turner.

A slower pace to the second round as both fighters look to use the jab more. Turner is quicker and more powerful than Weaver but Brok is trying hard to stay in this fight. Heading into the final 90 seconds of the round and Turner lands a beautiful right uppercut and right hook combo that drops Weaver! Turner walks off as if the fight is over but the referee doesn’t wave it off so he stands the fight back up. Turner puts Weaver down again, lands some ground and pound and then sinks in a rear naked choke for the win.

Alexandr Romanov def Roque Martinez via Submission (Head & Arm Choke), Round 2 (4:22)

What a crazy round that is. Romanov comes out with a scary offence immediately and goes straight for the takedown. Martinez fights it and gets back up but then Romanov just throws him across the octagon with a german suplex. Huge ground and pound from full mount has the referee looking at stopping the fight but Martinez survives. A straight armbar attempt almost secures a tap but Martinez guts it out and survives the round. 10-8 Romanov.

More of the same in this second round. Romanov gets an early takedown and lands more huge ground and pound strikes. He’s levelled off the pace slightly and not being so gung-ho, but Martinez has absolutely no answers for him. This is heading for another 10-8 round but then Romanov locks up a head and arm choke, squeezes real tight and gets the tap. What a performance.

Kevin Croom def Roosevelt Roberts via Submission (Standing Guillotine), Round 1 (0:31)

WOW! Roberts comes out aggressively but Croom slips a shot, lands a nice straight to the body and then a massive left hook that drops Roberts! He pounces, locks up the neck in a modified guillotine before adjusting the grip for the tap! Amazing!

Sijara Eubanks def Julia Avila via Unanimous Decision (29-27 x3)

Really fun first round there! Avila came out charged up and started swinging for the fences early and Eubanks engaged with her. They both landed huge bombs and Eubanks was forced to pull out of the firefight and charged forward with a big takedown. Nice battle on the ground and Avila got back to her feet before getting a takedown of her own and doing her own good work on the mat. Fun, competitive round. 10-9 Avila.

Avila comes out strong in the second round again, having a lot of success with her right cross. She goes for a front kick but Eubanks catches it and takes the fight to the ground once again. Good grappling battle on the mat but Eubanks showing her jiu-jitsu credentials and dominating the transitions on the floor. Several submission attempts by Eubanks but Avila defending with everything she has and the round ends with Eubanks landing ground and pound. Could be a 10-8 round for Eubanks. 19-19 for me.

More of the same in round 3 as Avila comes out looking for a war on the feet but Eubanks survives it and then gets the fight down to the ground. Avila scoots towards the fence trying to get up but Eubanks strong on top and controlling the position. A flat third round as Eubanks looks to ride it out and stays safe throughout and takes the win. 29-28.

MAIN CARD

Billy Quarantillo def Kyle Nelson via Knockout, Round 3 (0:07)

Nelson comes out firing in this one with a big overhand right that catches Quarantillo flush but he eats it well. Nice leg kicks by Billy land but Nelson charges forward with a nice body shot combo into a clinch/takedown attempt. Quarantillo defends it well and after more leg kicks gets a takedown of his own. Nelson gets back to his feet but Quarantillo lands a knee to the groin against the fence which causes a stop in the action. Nelson recovers nice and quickly and the round comes to an end. Close round but I’ve got it 10-9 Billy Q.

Second round is much of the same, but Quarantillo starting to turn the pace up a bit and Nelson is starting to tire a bit. Quarantillo marching forward with more takedown attempts and some big elbows in the clinch against the cage but Nelson is returning fire when he can. Quarantillo turning it on now and pushing forward and ends the round in dominant ground and pound. 20-18 Quarantillo.

Round 3 starts, Quarantillo lands a HUGE right hand and it’s all over. 7 second round. What a punch, great performance from Billy Q.

Bobby Green def Alan Patrick via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

A fast paced round as Patrick tries to fly into a takedown attempt but Green bounces off the cage and ends up on top. Green lands some nice ground and pound before they get back to the feet and Green lifts and slams him back onto the mat. More ground and pound as Patrick throws up an armbar but Green defends well. Round comes to an end as both men get back to their feet and Green lands a nice right hand that puts Patrick down to one knee. 10-9 Green.

More of the same in round 2 as Green proves too big and too strong for Patrick in every department. The fight stays on the feet for the most part with Green keeping his hands low and staying out of range of Patrick. A nice right hand with 30 seconds to go drops Patrick again and then Green goes for a Thai clinch with knees but Patrick avoids it as the buzzer goes. 20-18 Green, Patrick needs a finish.

Third and final round and Patrick knows he needs a finish. He comes forward looking for a takedown again but Green uses his power to switch positions and slam Patrick down to the mat again. Nice ground and pound keeps the time ticking over but Patrick rolls through and they get back to the feet. Green cruising through the round with his hands down and landing right straights at will but not really pushing for a finish here as the round comes to a close. Should be a comfortable decision for Green.

Ed Herman def Mike Rodriguez via Submission (Kimura), Round 3 (2:41)

An interesting first round between these two as both men use the clinch to their advantage. Rodriguez using his huge reach advantage by throwing out push kicks like jabs to maintain the range, while Herman is using leg kicks to try and close the distance. Rodriguez throwing big knees in the Thai clinch and throwing heavy elbows on the break too. He lands a massive elbow to the face that lands flush and Herman is wobbled but Rodriguez follows up with a knee and ends up clinched so Herman survives the round. 10-9 Rodriguez.

All Rodriguez in the second round here. He continues to use that push kick and elbows but he’s really working the body of Herman a lot with knees in the clinch. Rodriguez avoids a takedown attempt and gets back up to his feet quickly. He lands two big knees to the body that drop Herman but the referee calls time for a groin strike. Replays show it was nowhere near the groin but Herman is milking this and takes several minutes to recover. Fight resumes and then Rodriguez drops him again with more body shots but the buzzer goes. 20-18 but this fight should’ve been over already.

Herman comes out looking for a big takedown and gets it early but Rodriguez gets back to his feet and starts landing big elbows to the side of the head and body. Herman ends up going down due to the strikes and Rodriguez looks to land ground and pound but Herman locks up a kimura out of nowhere for the comeback win! Controversy will ensue.

Roxanne Modfferi def Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)

First round is a wild affair as both women keep up a fast pace and exchange strikes and takedowns. Modafferi has top control for slightly longer throughout the round and lands nice ground and pound to take a close first round. 10-9 Modafferi.

Second round is more of the same but Andrea Lee seems to have her timing down a little bit more in this one. Nice jabs and front kicks as well as crosses and hooks see Lee turn the pace up a bit and score the second round for herself. 19-19.

Third round with all to play for with both women pushing the pace once again. Lee lands nice strikes and kicks once again but Modafferi charges forward and secures a takedown halfway through the round. She secures top position and lands some nice ground and pound that while it isn’t putting Lee in any trouble, it’s scoring her points. The fight comes to an end and Modafferi’s takedown has likely got her the win. 29-28 Modafferi.

Ottman Azaitar def Khama Worthy via Knockout, Round 1 (1:33)

Fireworks!!! After an initial minute or so of feints and feeling each other out, Azaitar lands a big one-two combo that wobbles Worthy! He moves in for the kill and lands several heavy shots that drop him. He takes the back and lands big shots on the ground and the referee steps in and waves it off. What a win for Azaitar!

Michelle Waterson def Angela Hill via Split Decision (49-46, 48-47, 47-48)

Intriguing opening round here in the main event as Angela Hill shows her punching prowess with some nice right hands causing huge swelling on the head of Waterson. Waterson trying to use her clinch and kicking game but Hill is crowding her and throwing bombs while denying takedown attempts. Hill more physical and in a five-round fight that could be telling. 10-9 Hill.

Second round and Waterson is stringing some nice combos together. She’s throwing jabs followed by front leg kicks to keep range but also threaten with damage. Hill doing well to eat them and continue to step forward though, landing nice overhand rights and jabs of her own. Waterson moving well but Hill cracks her with a nice hook that seems to stun her, but she sees out the round. 19-19, but close second round.

Third round and Hill goes for a push kick to the body but Waterson catches it and trips her for a takedown. She holds top position well and starts to progress with nice ground and pound. She transitions and tries to take the back but Hill defends really well to avoid a submission attempt but eats some big punches for her troubles. As the buzzer is about to go and Waterson lands some more ground and pound, Hill throws an up-kick to a Waterson’s face while she’s down. Referee gives a stern warning but nothing more. 29-28 Waterson for me.

Fourth round now and Waterson is starting to find her rhythm and land kicks and punches much more frequently. Hill continuing to push forward but the energy is clearly draining and she’s not as crisp and sharp as she was. Waterson lands a nice side kick to the body and then a side kick straight to the chin that stuns Hill. Waterson goes for another takedown but Hill denies her as the round comes to an end. 39-37 Waterson for me but could easily be 38-38 going into the final round.

Final round and it’s all up for grabs. Both women come out and exchange kicks as Hill looks to inject her physicality advantage into the fight by walking forward and throwing big punches, but Waterson continues to use her kicks to keep her range. A really even round into the final minute as Hill throws a big overhand that lands flush onto Waterson’s chin and hurts her but she charges forward with some kicks of her own in response. Both women start exchanging big strikes into the final seconds as the buzzer goes. What a fight. 48-47 Waterson for me but could easily go the other way.

UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs Hill – Main Card Predictions

The UFC looks to get back on track with another card at the APEX in Las Vegas this weekend as Michelle Waterson takes on Angela Hill in the main event.

Originally scheduled to be headlined by Thiago Santos vs Glover Teixeira, that bout was postponed after Glover tested positive for COVID-19. However after last weeks card fell apart at the last minute and ended up with just 7 fights, the UFC are making up for it with a 12 fight card this weekend.

Of the 7 fights last week, I correctly predicted 6/7 winners, with 2 of the 6 being perfect picks (winner, method, round). I have already broken down and predicted the seven prelims fights here, so now I will do the same for the five main card bouts.

MAIN CARD

Billy Quarantillo (14-2) vs Kyle Nelson (13-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

An interesting bout between two very well rounded fighters in the featherweight division. Billy Quarantillo is a fantastic wrestler with good grappling skills with five submission wins on his record. He’s also a solid striker which shows when he employs his favoured game-plan of a fast pace and grinding strikes into top position. Nelson on the other hand lost his first two UFC fights being stopped by Diego Ferreira and Matt Sayles before finally getting a win against Marco Polo Reyes in 96 seconds with strikes. When Nelson was beaten by Sayles, he was the stronger man physically but his cardio eventually let him down when the pace was picked up and he ended up getting beat. I feel Quarantillo’s pace will do similar to Nelson here and he’s arguably a better wrestler too. While he may not get the finish, he should get the win at least.
PICK – Billy Quarantillo via Unanimous Decision

Ed Herman (25-14) vs Mike Rodriguez (11-4-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

After two straight wins for 39 year old Ed Herman, he looks to make it 3 in a row for the first time since 2012 when he takes on ‘Slow’ Mike Rodriguez. Rodriguez won his last fight just a few short weeks ago, knocking out Marcin Prachnio with a vicious elbow and punches in the first round. He’s the far bigger man for the fight, with a 2.5inch height advantage and a 5.5inch reach advantage but he’s also far more powerful and energetic. Herman himself has stopped shooting for takedowns in recent years and now prefers to clinch and land big knees. If Rodriguez chooses to try and steamroll Herman, it’s all on how the elder statesman’s chin holds up. If it does, he will look to use all his experience to drain the energy of Rodriguez and land his own heavy shots. Herman hasn’t beaten anyone still on the UFC roster since 2013 and I don’t think that changes with Rodriguez riding a wave of momentum.
PICK – Mike Rodriguez via Knockout, Round 1

Andrea Lee (11-4) vs Roxanne Modafferi (24-17) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Roxanne Modafferi has traded wins and losses since May 2017, going 4-4 in the UFC. Her most recent fights saw her beat the hottest of prospects in Maycee Barber, before being well beaten by Lauren Murphy last time out. Andrea Lee has lost her last two bouts via split decision, including her last bout against Lauren Murphy also. Lee is a solid kickboxer with good wrestling takedown defence, something that will come in handy against Modafferi. These two previously fought each other in Lee’s 3rd professional bout, where Modafferi managed to get a decision win. But six years later with the age and experience gap the same, Lee is a much better fighter now. I struggle to predict Modafferi’s fights because she tends to turn up against fighters she shouldn’t and vice versa. Lee is good enough though to avoid Modafferi’s best attempts and land shots of her own to get her a win on the scorecards.
PICK – Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision

Ottman Azaitar (12-0) vs Khama Worthy (16-6) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

My pick for fight of the night, as two hard hitting knockout artists square off. Ottman Azaitar made his UFC debut just over a year ago with a stunning knockout of Teemu Packalen, forcing the Finnish fighter to faceplant into the mat with one punch. Khama Worthy’s most recent fight was against Luis Pena back in June, where he scored a surprising submission win in the last round with a guillotine. Between them, 23 of their 28 wins have come via stoppage. This will be a straight up war and I can’t see it going the distance. Azaitar has never lost and throws absolute bombs but he’s never fought anyone remotely as good as Khama Worthy. The issue there, is that Worthy has been knocked out five times before and therefore we know he has a limit to the damage he can take. We saw though that he can fight on the ground as well as throw bricks of his own. His experience advantage and the fact that he has fought (and knocked out) fighters better than Azaitar mean I’ll pick Worthy for this, but it could honestly go either way.
PICK – Khama Worthy via Knockout, Round 2

Michelle Waterson (17-8) vs Angela Hill (12-8) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A late main event change means these two strawweights headline the card as ‘Karate Hottie’ Michelle Waterson looks to bounce back from two straight losses against Angela Hill, who fights for the fourth time in 2020 and fifth time in the last 12 months. Hill was on a three-fight win streak before a controversial split-decision loss to Claudia Gadelha last time out. Waterson’s fighting style goes with her nickname. A karate base with rangey striking skills and good defence takedown and crafty submission skills, while Hill uses her range well and comes with volume and a gritty heart to push limits. Hill has Muay-Thai skills and uses her knees really well on the inside, so Waterson needs to look to take this to the ground. Overall, Waterson has always been deemed as undersized for this division and despite being very similar in build to Hill she’s nowhere near as powerful. Hill can grind out a win everywhere and physically is just too strong in my opinion, so I believe she’ll land the bigger shots and secure a decision.
PICK – Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision