Tag Archives: Lupita Godinez

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC San Diego: Vera vs Cruz – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC heads to San Diego, California for a bantamweight banger in the main event between Marlon Vera and former champion Dominick Cruz.

A 13-fight card that has got plenty of fire match ups on it is headlined by the two contenders in the 135-pound division, where a win could put them firmly in title contention for early 2023.

Last week a UFC Vegas 59 we went 7/10 with one perfect pick, moving to 690/1069 (64.55%) with 292 perfect picks (42.32%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims picks.

Gabriel Benitez (22-11) vs Charlie Ontiveros (11-8) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very interesting lightweight scrap up next. Benitez has lost four of his last five, with a KO win over Justin Jaynes sandwiched between losses to Sodiq Yusuff, Omar Morales, Billy Qurantillo and most recently David Onama. Ontiveros on the other hand lost a short notice debut to Kevin Holland at UFC Vegas 12, before being KO’d to Steve Garcia most recently.

Benitez is a very tidy striker on the feet with excellent boxing combinations, and he’s also a decent grappler too on his back. Ontiveros is an absolutely huge man standing at 6ft 2 and previously fighting at middleweight, but his striking is decent and he’s the more powerful guy. This is a really weird scrap in reality, but Benitez is clearly the more skilled of the two.

The intangibles in Ontiveros’ game are in his favour for sure, with his size and unorthodox style causing problems for a lot people. But against someone who is a better striker and comfortable on the mat, he can dictate wherever this fight goes and his body work could pay dividends later in the fight to a diminished Ontiveros to claim a stoppage win.
PICK – Gabriel Benitez via Knockout, Round 3

Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) vs Nina Nunes (10-7) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A fun flyweight bout up next in the final women’s bout of the night. Calvillo started her flyweight career with a win over Jessica Eye (UFC Vegas 2), but has since lost three in a row to Katlyn Chookagian (UFC 255) via decision and then getting KO’d by Jessica Andrade (UFC 266) and a corner stoppage at the end of the second round against Andrea Lee most recently. Nunes on the other hand has lost her last two, with an armbar defeat to Mackenzie Dern most recently in her first bout since becoming a mother.

Calvillo tends to use her striking to set up her wrestling, using her top game to stay heavy on the opponent and land ground and pound strikes. Nunes is an all-rounder who is capable of striking and using her grappling to win fights, but she lacks power and isn’t a natural grappler either.

With that said, Calvillo has really struggled in this weight class. Nunes’ footwork and speed is something that has caused Calvillo problems in previous bouts but Nunes was outwrestled most recently and Calvillo is a strong wrestler. Despite that though, I expect a Nunes win. Her strengths outweigh her weaknesses in relation to her opponent and she should be able to bounce around the cage enough to nullify the wrestling and land some solid strikes to earn the win.
PICK – Nina Nunes via Decision

Martin Buday (10-1) vs Lukasz Brzeski (8-1-1) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

An absolute banger at heavyweight up next. Buday has won nine in a row including a TKO win over Chris Barnett back in April, while Brzeski has won six of his last seven although the most recent was overturned to a no contest on appeal.

Buday is a powerful striker with good combinations on the inside, as well as some good takedown defence to go with his own good wrestling skills. Brzeski on the other hand is someone who likes to push forward and use volume to close distance, before getting a clinch and trying to get top control to work his ground and pound. The big problem for Brzeski is that he’s going to be outweighed by about 30-pounds on fight night.

“Badys” is far bigger, and technically is the more superior striker. Add to that the issues that Brzeski has had with his cardio in the past and the huge size discrepancy I expect Buday will be able to do enough damage to earn a stoppage later in the fight.
PICK – Martin Buday via Knockout, Round 2

Angela Hill (13-12) vs Lupita Godinez (8-2) – (Catchweight/120lbs)

A fun catchweight scrap at 120-pounds in this one for a short-notice scrap. Hill has lost five of her last six, including getting out-grapple by Virna Jandiroba last time out to make it three in a row. Godinez on the other hand has won her last two in a row, earning decisions over Loma Lookboonmee and Ariane Carnelossi most recently at UFC 274.

Hill is a Muay-Thai fighter with great kicks and volume, who is best known for her relentless pressure and the amount she fights every year. Godinez is a grappler who has good wrestling and judo skills and tends to try and smother her opponents on the mat, something Hill has notoriously struggled with in the past.

That makes it a long night for Hill. Godinez will trade on the feet, knowing that Hill doesn’t really have the power to hurt her and will eventually change levels for the takedown then control the fight on the mat from that point. Expect no more than five takedowns over the course of the fight, but plenty of top control for “Loopy” for a comfortable decision win.
PICK – Lupita Godinez via Decision

ufc san diego: vera vs cruz – early prelims predictions
Advertisement
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC heads to Arizona for a huge pay-per-view card this weekend headlined by two massive title fights in the lightweight and strawweight divisions.

The main event will see Charles Oliveira defend his 155-pound title for the second time against Justin Gaethje, who looks to earn the belt at the second time of asking.

In the co-main event we’ll see Rose Namajunas defend her 115-pound title for the second time of her second stint as champion when she takes on Carla Esparza, reigniting a rivalry years in the making from the inaugural title fight in the division.

We’ll also see Michael Chandler fight against Tony Ferguson in a huge lightweight fight, as well as ‘Shogun’ Rua, Donald Cerrone, Randy Brown, Khaos Williams, Danny Roberts and more.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 53 we had a poor night with our picks, going 5/11 with four perfect picks. That moves us up to 613/951 (64.46%) with 259 perfect picks (42.25%).

We’ll look to improve on that here with this massive 15-fight card, starting with the early prelims.

Journey Newson (9-3) vs Fernie Garcia (10-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A fun bantamweight fight opens up the card between two interesting fighters. Newson is on a three fight winless streak, after dropping losses to Ricardo Ramos and Randy Costa (UFC Vegas 11) most recently. He did KO Domingo Pilarte in between those, but it was overturned to a no contest for a failed drug test. Garcia on the other hand makes his UFC debut after a successful appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Newson is a steady boxer with a decent wrestling game, but it’s hard to get a read on someone who has fought for less than 90 seconds in the last three years and is coming off a near two-year layoff. Garcia on the other hand is a volume striker with good speed and good wrestling defence to keep the fight in his wheelhouse. Neither guy has got great power, with just four KO’s across their combined 19 wins so it’s all about winning the 50/50 battles.

Newson will likely look to strike early on but when he realises that he’s not got the speed to match Garcia in the exchanges he’ll look to tie him up against the cage and wear on him. Garcia must be able to escape and get back to his boxing, which I think he will, to be able to claim a decision win.
PICK – Fernie Garcia via Decision

Ariane Carnelossi (14-2) vs Lupita Godinez (7-2) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An interesting strawweight bout up next between two women coming off wins. Carnelossi has won her last two by finish, knocking out Na Liang at UFC 261 before submitting Istela Nunes in her most recent outing. Godinez had three fights in six weeks at the back end of 2021, going 2-1 in that run with a defeat to Luana Carolina sandwiched between wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and Loma Lookboonmee all by decision.

Carnelossi is a powerful striker with a good jab, good low kicks and a decent wrestling game when on the attack. Godinez on the other hand is a sharp boxer too, but she has excellent wrestling both offensively and defensively and that would surely give her the edge here. On the feet Carnelossi’s power is a game changer. She swings big hooks and has the ability to turn the lights out as her nine career KO’s show. but if she ends up on her back she is in trouble.

Godinez is a relentless grappler when she knows she can secure a takedown and from top position she should be able to keep Carnelossi exactly where she wants her. If she avoids the big contact in the early rounds, I expect Godinez to be able to wrestle her way to a relatively one-sided decision win.
PICK – Lupita Godinez via Decision

Kleydson Rodrigues (7-1) vs CJ Vergara (9-3-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Flyweight banger up next between two exciting prospects at 125-pounds. Rodrigues has won his last six in a row, including his last fight on Dana White’s Contender Series where he dominated Santo Curatolo. Vergara on the other hand saw a five-fight win streak snapped when he lost his UFC debut to Ode Osbourne via decision back at UFC 268 in November.

Rodrigues is a striker who likes to use his length well and kicking game to set up range and straight strikes and has got a huge technique advantage in this bout. Vergara is a bit more of a brawler than that, but he has got a great clinch game that looks to wear his opponents down with hard knees and elbows. Unfortunately for Vergara though, he seems to be outmatched on this occasion.

‘K.R.’ has got the power to land well and early, while stylistically he is similar to Osbourne who gave Vergara lots of trouble last time out. Vergara will have to try and close the distance with his boxing and that should open him up to a big counter from Rodrigues, who’ll claim the statement KO win.
PICK – Kleydson Rodrigues via Knockout, Round 2

Tracy Cortez (9-1) vs Melissa Gatto (8-0-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A very fun flyweight fight between two prospects in the division up next. Cortez is on a nine-fight win streak and is unbeaten in the UFC, claiming a split decision win over Justine Kish in her most recent outing. Gatto on the other hand has won each of her last three bouts, including finishes in her UFC debut against Victoria Leonardo at UFC 265 and then a KO win over Sijara Eubanks at UFC Vegas 45 last time out.

Cortez is a grinding wrestler who has surely been working on her jiu-jitsu game in recent times since starting a relationship with Brian Ortega. She tends to get takedowns and control opponents on the ground, while her striking is good enough to hold her own in the exchanges. Gatto on the other hand is a solid striker with decent power and kicks, while she showed her ground game is of more than adequate level when she went toe-to-toe with Eubanks.

If Gatto keeps the fight standing then it’s her bout to lose. She has a small reach advantage but also she has got some nasty jiu-jitsu off her back and that could be a problem for Cortez. With that said though, Cortez will do some big wrestling movements and will look to grind her way to a win, but she must stay very aware of the submission threat that is posed against her. Overall, there are more paths to victory for the Brazilian, so I expect her to edge out a tough fight.
PICK – Melissa Gatto via Decision

Andre Fialho (15-4) vs Cameron VanCamp (15-5-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A banger in the welterweight division that was put together on super short notice. Andre Fialho returns to the octagon just three weeks after a huge win over Miguel Baeza last time out, having been beaten in his UFC debut by Michel Pereira at UFC 270 at the start of the year. VanCamp makes his organisation debut on the back of a four-fight win streak with three submissions in a row.

Fialho is a powerhouse who constantly walks forward and throws heavy strikes as he closes the distance, with good defensive wrestling too. VanCamp on the other hand is a solid grappler with excellent submission skills, but his striking leaves plenty to be desired and that puts him in a world of trouble here. He’s a technical boxer with a nasty left hook and so long as the quick turnaround doesn’t negatively impact him this is his fight to lose.

VanCamp needs to get the fight to the ground and control the grappling exchanges to win this fight, but he’ll need to eat a host of strikes to get it there and I don’t see him being able to cope. Fialho lands big and early to hurt VanCamp and earn a nasty KO win.
PICK – Andre Fialho via Knockout, Round 1

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 43: Vieira vs Tate – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas for a women’s bantamweight main event bout between Ketlen Vieira and former champion Miesha Tate.

Tate will be looking to keep the UFC’s dreams of a potential rematch with Amanda Nunes alive with a win in the main event, while Vieira is hopeful of killing off her comeback plans.

In the co-main event, Michael Chiesa will be looking to fight off gatekeeper claims in the welterweight division when he takes on the undefeated prospect Sean Brady.

Last week at UFC Vegas 42 we had a poor showing with our picks, earning jut 5/11 correct with three perfect picks to move to 476/741 (64.24%) with 200 perfect picks (42.02%) since June 2020.

We’ll look to improve on that this week with this 12 fight card and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelim picks here.

Terrance McKinney (11-3) vs Fares Ziam (12-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight here. McKinney made his UFC debut at UFC 263 on very short notice and secured the quickest KO in lightweight history, putting Matt Frevola’s lights out in just seven seconds. Ziam on the other hand has earned back-to-back wins in the UFC, beating Jamie Mullarkey via decision at UFC Fight Island 6 before a majority decision over Luigi Vendramini at UFC 263.

McKinney is a super powerful striker on the feet, with some great boxing skills and a nasty low kick to go with it. He’s also got very good wrestling and some decent submission skills, earning six tap-out victories. Ziam on the other hand is a technical striker who fights at a slow pace and looks to counter-strike on the outside. That slow pace however could be a big problem for him in this fight, with McKinney a very fast starter.

‘T-Rex’ will likely come out hard and fast and look to put Ziam against the fence and land big strikes before moving on to his wrestling and trying to drag the fight to the ground where he has the edge. Ziam has every chance of countering those blitzes with powerful shots of his own, but I think McKinney’s ability to wrestle and grapple earns him a victory here.
PICK – Terrence McKinney via Decision

Loma Lookboonmee (6-2) vs Lupita Godinez (6-2) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Another fun strawweight bout on this card as Lupita Godinez steps in for her third outing in a little over a month. A win over Silvana Gomez Juarez at UFC Vegas 26 was followed up the following week with a defeat up a weight class against Luana Carolina. Lookboonmee is on a two-fight win streak, beating Jinh Yu Frey and then beating Sam Hughes at UFC Vegas 25 most recently.

Lookboonmee is a brilliant kickboxer with great Muay-Thai skills and some much improved wrestling too, as shown in her last fight. Godinez is a decent wrestler herself with some okay striking on the feet, but ultimately it’s her wrestling that has got her this far. Unfortunately for her, Lookboonmee is very good when it comes to takedown defence and on the feet there is a very wide gap between the two.

Godinez has very good pressure early on and Lookboonmee is small even for this division, but her wrestling has improved to the point where there isn’t much of a difference between them. That means the fight will be tight and because of the edge on the feet, I think Lookboonmee can earn the victory.
PICK – Loma Lookboonmee via Decision

Rafa Garcia (12-2) vs Natan Levy (6-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight in this one between two fighters looking for their first UFC wins. Garcia is 0-2 in the organisation with decision losses to Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Vegas 21 and then Chris Gruetzemacher at UFC Vegas 33. Levy is making his UFC debut as an undefeated fighter, winning a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series a year ago with a submission win.

Garcia is a solid wrestler with some excellent submission skills, earning seven of his 11 career wins via tap-out. Levy will stand opposite him also a decent wrestler with good submission skills once he’s on top, earning three of his six wins via tap-out. On the feet, Garcia has a big advantage in this fight though and that is what is leaning me towards this pick. Levy is a natural featherweight with a slight reach and heigh advantage, but he has really struggled with pressure in the past.

Garcia has previously gone five rounds in the past with a high pace and his ability to mix up the striking and wrestling should see him earn a victory against the smaller man. With that said though, Garcia’s cardio crumbled last time out and Levy is talented enough on the mat to secure a submission, but I think Garcia should be able to correct those issues and earn a win.
PICK – Rafa Garcia via Decision

Pat Sabatini (15-3) vs Tucker Lutz (12-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A featherweight banger is the featured prelim bout on this card. Sabatini is on a four-fight win streak with wins over Tristan Connelly at UFC 261 and a submission win over Jamall Emmers at UFC Vegas 35. Lutz meanwhile is undefeated since losing his pro debut, earning a decision win over Kevin Aguilar in his UFC debut at UFC 262.

Sabatini is a ground specialist, with amazing submission skills earning him 10 of 15 wins coming via tap-out. He’s a decent wrestler too to get the fight to the ground while he’s not scared to trade strikes on the feet to open up his chances. Lutz however is a very well-rounded fighter, with good striking on the feet and some efficient wrestling skills to be able to dictate where he wants the fight to take place.

Lutz’s performance against Aguilar was excellent and while he seemed to get tired in the third round, Sabatini has also struggled with his cardio in the past. Lutz is comfortably the better fighter on the feet and with his good wrestling, he should be able to keep the fight standing and avoid Sabatini’s brilliant submission grappling to earn a comfortable decision win.
PICK – Tucker Lutz via Decision

ufc vegas 43: vieira vs tate – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs Dumont – Prelims predictions

Leave a comment

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas once again for yet another fight night card, this time headlined by female featherweight Norma Dumont and short-notice replacement Aspen Ladd.

Ladd was pulled from UFC Vegas 38 just two weeks ago after missing the bantamweight limit by one pound, scrapping her fight with Macy Chiasson. But after Holly Holm pulled out of this card with an injury, the UFC called her in up a weight class to fill in for this main event.

Elsewhere on the card the legendary Jim Miller makes a return while two Contender Series alum in Jordan Wright and Julian Marquez meet in a fun middleweight scrap.

Last week at UFC Vegas 39, we went 6/9 with three perfect picks on a rather forgettable card to move us up to 434/679 (63.92%) with 187 perfect picks (43.09%) since June 2020.

We’ll look to improve on that record here and after starting with the early prelim bouts here, we move on to the prelims now.

Lupita Godinez (6-1) vs Luana Carolina (7-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A super short notice bout in the women’s flyweight division as Lupita Godinez makes it two fights in two weeks. Godinez defeated Silvana Gomez Juarez via first-round armbar at UFC Vegas 39 last weekend and steps up in place of Sijara Eubanks up a weight class in this one. Carolina earned a split decision win over Poliana Botelho at UFC Vegas 25 in her last outing.

Godinez is a pressure fighter with some decent boxing and a decent bit of grappling in her back pocket, using her gas tank as a weapon throughout her career. Carolina is a striker herself, but uses her range and length well which is where she will have an advantage here. She’ll also have a size and power advantage, being the natural flyweight in the fight.

Despite that though, Godinez has a great chance. She is riding a wave of momentum, has the better ground game and also has the bigger gas tank. If she can use her pressure to get on the inside, force Carolina backwards and mix in her wrestling I think she can claim a close decision win.
PICK – Lupita Godinez via Decision

Danny Roberts (17-5) vs Ramazan Emeev (20-4) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A banger at welterweight as Britain’s Danny Roberts makes a return after two years out to take on Ramazan Emeev. Roberts hasn’t fought since a brilliant KO win back in 2019 over Zelim Imadaev, while Emeev is on a two-fight win streak with a decision over David Zawada most recently at UFC Fight Island 7.

Roberts is a highlight reel of a fighter, who looks to take your head off with every strike and possesses good power and wrestling too. Emeev on the other hand is the opposite. A talented grappler who looks to take fights to the ground and controls position as a priority in his bouts. Roberts is usually at his best when fighting at range which will help him avoid takedowns, but if Emeev gets in on him then the fight is going down.

That’s a problem for Roberts. However, with Emeev prioritising position of submission it means Roberts will likely get the chance to land bombs on the feet again and in the third round, Emeev tends to tire. That’s a window of opportunity for him to land a knockout win, but it’s too small for me and Emeev should claim another decision.
PICK – Ramazan Emeev via Decision

Andrew Sanchez (13-6) vs Bruno Silva (20-6) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Another banger but this time in the middleweight division as former TUF champion Andrew Sanchez takes on Brazil’s Bruno Silva. Sanchez is 1-2 in the UFC so far, with a win over Wellington Turman sandwiched in between defeats to Marvin Vettori and Makhmud Muradov most recently at UFC 257. Silva on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak but claimed a brilliant KO win over Turman in his UFC debut at UFC Vegas 29.

Sanchez is a top wrestler who is also a karate champion and a sound striker on the feet. Silva on the other hand is a powerful striker with 17 knockout wins in 20 career victories. He storms forward with reckless abandon and insane power, looking to force a war with his opponent to take their head off.

Silva has got the ability and strength to put anyone in the division’s lights out and while Sanchez could choose to not strike and just wrestle, he seems to favour his point striking recently which means Silva is putting him to sleep.
PICK – Bruno Silva via Knockout, Round 2

ufc vegas 40: ladd vs dumont – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs Rodriguez – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to the Apex once again this weekend for a strawweight main event that could decide the next title contender for the division.

Mackenzie Dern looks to continue her win streak when she goes up against Marina Rodriguez in the main event, with both women aware that a win could pit them against the winner of Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang 2 at UFC 268 next month.

Elsewhere on the card is a fun welterweight clash between Randy Brown and Jared Gooden, while there is also an exciting flyweight fight between Tim Elliott and Matheus Nicolau as well as the return of heavyweight Alexandr Romanov.

Last week at UFC Vegas 38, we went 7/11 on picks with just one perfect pick to move us up to 428/670 (63.88%) with 184 perfect picks (42.99%).

We’ll look to improve on that here on this ten-fight card, starting with the prelims.

Steve Garcia (11-4) vs Charlie Ontiveros (11-7) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An interesting fight to start off the card as two fighters who lost their UFC debuts clash here. Garcia made his UFC debut in February 2020 against Luis Pena, while Ontiveros is a previous welterweight who made his debut at middleweight and got slammed to defeat by Kevin Holland last year at UFC Vegas 12.

Garcia is a natural featherweight who has decided to stick around at lightweight for now, with good striking volume and decent power. Ontiveros is another with great strength in the striking department. Both have been absolutely battered on the ground in the past and that means this should be a fun, stand-up affair.

With that said though, it’s unlikely to last very long. Between them they have had 33 professional fights and only one of them has taken place at lightweight before but further to that, Ontiveros has been KO’d SEVEN times in his career. This doesn’t stand to go better for him, with Garcia powerful enough to fold him early.
PICK – Steve Garcia via Knockout, Round 1

Lupita Godinez (5-1) vs Silvana Gomez Juarez (10-2) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A short-notice strawweight bout here as ‘Loopy’ takes on debutant Silvana Gomez Juarez. Godinez suffered a split-decision loss on her debut to Jessica Penne back in April, while Juarez is on a three-fight win streak as she makes her UFC debut.

Godinez is a striker first with some decent grappling in her back pocket too, but lots of volume and a great gas tank. Juarez is a brilliant striker on the other hand, with a brilliant boxing stance and even a 4-0 professional boxing record. She is a cardio machine with good power and great cardio too, even though she is 37.

Juarez has the edge on the feet and Godinez really needs to make this an ugly fight to get the win. Short-notice helps her, but Juarez was due to fight next week anyway on the Contender Series so it’s not a massive factor. However the grappling is a big factor for Godinez and I think she’ll be able to control from the top to grind out a decision.
PICK – Lupita Godinez via Decision

Charles Rosa (14-5) vs Damon Jackson (18-4-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A very interesting grapple-heavy bout in the featherweight division up next. Rosa has alternated wins and losses ever since joining the UFC in 2014, beating Justin Jaynes most recently at UFC Vegas 30. Jackson is 1-1 in the UFC, beating Mirsad Bektic at UFC Vegas 11 before defeat last time out against Ilia Topuria at UFC Vegas 16.

Rosa is a solid submission artist with eight tap-out wins in his career but some really poor takedown defence. Jackson is also a brilliant grappler and one of the premiere back-takers in the UFC, with 14 submission wins in his career. His top control game is really, really good and if Rosa leaves any limbs dangling then Jackson will take them.

Jackson has been KO’d three times in his career and Rosa is a decent enough striker to land some clean shots and hurt him, but overall the defensive takedown struggles of Rosa lead me to believe that Jackson will be able to get on top and control for a win.
PICK – Damon Jackson via Decision

Alexandr Romanov (14-0) vs Jared Vanderaa (12-5) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

A heavyweight banger coming up as the undefeated Romanov returns to the cage to take on Vanderaa. Romanov has run through opponents in the UFC until he came up against Juan Espino, with the fight ending in a technical decision after a low blow saw the fight ended early. Vanderaa got a win the last time out when he beat Justin Tafa back in May, taking his UFC record to 1-1.

Romanov is an absolute monster with the wrestling, who just charges forward with a takedown and dominates on the ground with pure aggression. Vanderaa is a fighter with decent striking and some good cardio, but considering he’s a heavyweight he doesn’t have the most power in the world. He is the cleaner and more technical fighter in this bout, but Vanderaa likes to clinch up and get inside on his opponent which plays into the strengths of Romanov.

Unfortunately for Vanderaa, that is just not ideal. Romanov will find a way to get the fight down to the ground early and do plenty of damage with strikes and submission attempts, before probably getting a finish.
PICK – Alexandr Romanov via Submission, Round 1

Chris Gutierrez (16-3-2) vs Felipe Colares (10-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Banger in the bantamweight division steps into the place of the featured prelim bout in this one. Gutierrez is unbeaten in his last five with four wins and a draw, beating Andre Ewell at UFC 258 most recently, while Colares has alternated wins and losses in his last four with a win over Luke Sanders at UFC Vegas 25 last time out.

Gutierrez is a decent wrestler who is one of the best leg kickers in the entire company, with a large percentage of his strikes in all his fights being leg kicks. Colares on the other hand is a solid striker with some decent jiu-jitsu, but his takedown defence is lacking and often his weakness. Gutierrez is often someone who works at quite a slow pace, which could work against him in this one because Colares is quick and super durable.

That said though, Gutierrez has the advantage in the wrestling and has the advantage in the striking which means Colares will need to catch a kick to get him down. That’s unlikely and I think Gutierrez will be able to piece him up from range and do lots of damage with the leg kicks for a decision win.
PICK – Chris Gutierrez via Decision

mackenzie dern a win away from title contention
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 24: Whittaker vs Gastelum – Prelims predictions

1 Comment

The middleweight division continues to move on at UFC Vegas 24 as Robert ‘The Reaper’ Whittaker takes on short-notice replacement Kelvin Gastelum in the main event.

Whittaker knows a win cements his place as the number one contender for a potential rematch with Israel Adesanya, while Gastelum looks to get back to the sort of run that saw him fight Adesanya in an interim title fight two short years ago.

In the co-main event, Jeremy Stephens makes a return to the lightweight division for the first time since 2012 when he takes on heavy hitter Drakkar Klose at 155lbs.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 23 we had a pretty good night, going 9/13 with four perfect picks to take our total up to 279/439 (63.55%) with 125 perfect picks (44.8%).

In a fun 12 fight card we’ll look to improve that here. Having already predicted the early prelims, here are our picks for the rest of the prelims.

Bartosz Fabinski (15-4) vs Gerald Meerschaert (31-14 – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A middleweight bout between ‘The Butcher’ against the man who got run over in his last fight Gerald Meerschaert. Fabinski has lost two of his last three, with a decision win over Darren Stewart sandwiched between first-round submission defeats to Michel Prazeres and Andre Muniz. Meerschaert has lost five of his last seven including his last two in a row to Ian Heinisch at UFC 250 and Khamzat Chimaev at UFC Vegas 11.

Fabinski is a wrestler who will look to put you on your back and dominate from top position, while Meerschaert is a jiu-jitsu practitioner with 23 careers wins by submission. Fabinski is an okay striker on the feet and may choose to use that early on because of Meerschaert’s skill off his back. Early on when they’re dry Fabinski may be careful, but his wrestling should see him in a comfortable position for the most part and get a comfortable win here.
PICK – Bartosz Fabinski via Decision

Jessica Penne (12-6) vs Lupita Godinez (5-0) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A very interesting bout in the strawweight division as Jessica Penne makes her return for the first time in three-and-a-half years following issues with USADA to take on debutant Lupita Godinez.

Penne is a wrestler who we’ve seen in the past get absolutely wailed on by any sort of top striker and that’s exactly what Godinez is. She has a tremendous jab, really powerful punches and solid combinations – all things that will trouble the veteran Penne. While she is likely to have improved a bit after nearly four years away, her weaknesses are likely to still be her weaknesses. At 38, she is now coming up against a more youthful, more powerful and hungrier opponent.

Godinez will likely step forward and land some heavy shots early to put Penne on the back foot and from there it’s a matter of when not if.
PICK – Lupita Godinez via Knockout, Round 1

Alexander Romanov (13-0) vs Juan Espino (11-1) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

A super exciting heavyweight bout between two ground specialists among the biggest of big boys in the UFC. Romanov is undefeated in his career and has smashed through his two UFC opponents so far, submitting Roque Martinez at UFC Vegas 10 before choking out Marcos Rogerio de Lima in one round at UFC Vegas 13. Espino is a former Ultimate Fighter winner and won his first UFC bout against Jeff Hughes at UFC 253 with a first round submission win too.

Romanov is a powerful wrestler, who has rag dolled opponents so far throughout his career and has violent ground and pound as well as a submission game. Espino is also a wrestler but he tends to move for submissions far more than working ground and pound. Both men want to be on top to work their game and we haven’t really seen either on the bottom during their career. We haven’t seen either have to defend takedowns either because that is something their opponents try to avoid so it makes for a very interesting clash.

In the end, Romanov is a younger and fresher fighter who has been more active. If the fight stays on the feet he has the striking edge and a deeper gas tank too so I think he gets the win here but don’t be surprised if Espino gets him down early and works a submission from the top.
PICK – Alexander Romanov via Knockout, Round 1

Tracy Cortez (8-1) vs Justine Kish (7-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

In the featured prelim bout of the card the impressive Tracy Cortez makes a return to take on former Ultimate Fighter contestant Justine Kish. Cortez lost the first bout of her career but has gone unbeaten since, including decision wins in the UFC over Vanessa Melo and most recently Stephanie Egger at UFC Fight Island 5. Kish on the other hand has lost three of her last four, including most recently against Sabina Mazo at UFC Vegas 10 when she was submitted.

Cortez is an excellent wrestler with super takedowns and a well polished ground game, while Kish is anything but. Kish likes to stand and trade kickboxing techniques when she gets the chance but she once literally pooped herself trying to escape from a choke against a strong grappler. Cortez can hold her own the feet for sure but her best work is done on the ground and with Kish’s lacklustre takedown defence there is only one place this is going to end up.

Cortez gets her down and beats her up for 15 minutes for a ninth consecutive career win.
PICK – Tracy Cortez via Decision

ufc vegas 24: whittaker vs gastelum – early prelims predictions