Tag Archives: Maheshate

UFC Vegas 66: Cannonier vs Strickland – Early prelims predictions

The final UFC card of 2022 is upon us after a crazy year, with middleweight contenders battling it out in the main event.

Jared Cannonier returns to the octagon after a failed title attempt to take on Sean Strickland, whose last fight saw him beaten by the current champion in the division.

It’s a stacked 14-fight card including people like Drew Dober, Manel Kape, Bryan Battle, Said Nurmagomedov and more.

Last weekend at UFC 282 we went 6/11 with one perfect pick (we don’t count draws) to move to 795/1238 (64.22%) with 326 perfect picks (41.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims here.


Sergey Morozov (18-5) vs Journey Newson (10-3) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A fun scrap to open the card in the bantamweight division. Morozov is 2-2 in his last four, losing to Usman Nurmagomedov (UFC Fight Island 8) and Douglas Silva De Andrade (UFC 271) while beating Khalid Taha and Raulian Paiva most recently. Newson on the other hand was KO’d by Randy Costa at UFC Vegas 11, before taking over a year off and returning with a win over Fernando Garcia most recently.

Morozov is a solid all-rounder, with excellent striking technique and solid wrestling to go with his excellent top game with vicious ground and pound skills. Newson is on his way to becoming an all-rounder, but he’s not quite there yet although his Brazilian jiu-jitsu is very useful for him. With that said though, Morozov just seems to be better everywhere this fight goes.

He’s the better, more powerful and more aggressive striker, and his top game is far better than Newson’s bottom game is when it comes to ground-and-pound vs jiu-jitsu. I don’t see a finish because Newson is no pushover, but Morozov has the skills to win the close exchanges and take over more as the fight goes on to claim a decision on the cards.
PICK – Sergey Morozov via Decision

David Dvorak (20-4) vs Manel Kape (17-6) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Banger at flyweight next. Dvorak saw his 16-fight win streak snapped last time out when Matheus Nicolau earned a decision over him in his last bout. Kape alternatively has won his last two in a row, KO’ing both Ode Osbourne (UFC 265) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (UFC Vegas 44).

Dvorak is a brilliant boxer with good footwork and a lovely jab, while his defensive grappling is also excellent to keep fights standing. His biggest weakness is that he can be a slow starter. Kape on the other hand is an explosive striker with great counter-striking and good defensive wrestling too. His biggest weakness is that he tends to wait a lot to counter attack, and that lack of volume cost him in his opening two UFC fights.

That slow start for Dvorak could be a huge issue, because Kape likes to come out of the blocks quickly with his big strikes looking for a finish and he has excellent knockout power. Dvorak can get hit and hurt, but if he gets past that stage then it will be an excellent striking match. I’ll lean with Kape because it’s highly unlikely he loses the first round if he fights properly, and that’s an obvious advantage.
PICK – Manel Kape via Decision



Bryan Battle (8-1) vs Rinat Fakhretdinov (19-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A very interesting welterweight bout up next. Battle is on a seven-fight win streak including winning the latest series of TUF, beating Gilbert Urbina in the finale, then beating Tresean Gore and KO’ing Takashi Sato most recently via head-kick. Fakhretdinov steps in on just two-weeks’ notice on an 18-fight win streak, who won his UFC debut last time out back in June.

Battle is a really good fighter with a bit of everything in his wheelhouse, with some solid wrestling and great submission skills as well as explosive striking when he needs it and unlimited cardio. “Gladiator” is likely to try and wrestle his way to victory here, but he has got crazy power too and often relies heavily on landing one big shot.

But with Battle’s style of moving constantly and being strong everywhere, it’s hard to see how he loses this one. There is always the chance that Fakhretdinov wrestles his way to a win, but he really lacks urgency to be busy and against Battle that is a recipe for disaster.
PICK – Bryan Battle via Decision

Rafa Garcia (14-3) vs Maheshate (9-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Lightweight banger up next between two prospects in the weight class. Garcia saw his two-fight win streak snapped last time out when he lost to Drakkar Klose at UFC 277, while Maheshate is on a seven-fight win streak with a first-round KO in his UFC debut against Steve Garcia most recently at UFC 275.

Garcia is a very good wrestler, who has got five round experience and fantastic cardio to be able to wrestle all night long. Maheshate is a striker, with a piston-like right hand that has the power and ability to put people out if he lands clean. Garcia is a very aggressive fighter which can leave opportunities for Maheshate to land counters, but this is a big step up in competition.

“Gifted” is likely to make this an ugly fight, because if it’s clean and technical then he is in Maheshate’s world. Garcia is likely to push him against the cage, constantly work for takedowns and use lots of dirty boxing and clinches. He’ durable and has great cardio to be relentless for 15 minutes, and I expect Garcia to put an end to the hype relatively comfortably in a fun fight.
PICK – Rafa Garcia via Decision

UFC 275: Teixeira vs Prochazka – Prelims predictions

The UFC heads to Singapore for only the fifth time ever for UFC 275 this weekend as we’re treated to two huge title fights in the main events.

Glover Teixeira will defend the light heavyweight title for the first time when he takes on Jiri Prochazka in the headline fight, while Valentina Shevchenko will defend her flyweight title for the seventh time against first-time challenger Taila Santos.

We’ll also see the hotly anticipated rematch between Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk as well as the likes of Manel Kape, Brendan Allen and Andre Fialho competing too.

We come into this card after a small break from picks. We sit at 634/987 (64.24%) with 272 perfect picks (42.9%) and you can see our total picks list here.

We’ll try to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims now.


Brendan Allen (18-5) vs Jacob Malkoun (6-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Banger in the middleweight division. Allen recovered from a shock KO defeat to Chris Curtis at UFC Vegas 44 by earning a submission win over Sam Alvey most recently after clubbing him to the mat first. Malkoun has bounced back from a horror debut that saw him KO’d in 18 seconds by Phil Hawes at UFC 254 by earning back-to-back wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and AJ Dobson most recently at UFC 271.

Allen is exactly what his nickname suggests – “All In”. He is a brilliant grappler on the mat with a fearsome top game and nasty submission skills that have earned him ten wins via tap out, but he is also capable of standing and striking with good combinations and power. Malkoun on the other hand is very similar to teammate Robert Whittaker, with excellent range management and kickboxing skills as well as good wrestling to hold opponents down and control fights.

Malkoun will likely try to recreate his two wins with ground control and lots of risk averse tactics, but Allen is by far the best fighter he’s faced. Allen should be able to control the striking with his size advantage and pressure, and in the grappling department I’d expect Allen to have the advantage anyway whether it’s getting back up to his feet or keeping Malkoun down. Expect fast pace and a mix of attacks for Allen to earn another victory.
PICK – Brendan Allen via Decision

Maheshate (6-1) vs Steve Garcia (12-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Lightweight prospects go head-to-head in this one. Maheshate is on a six-fight win streak after earning a UFC contract with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, while Garcia got the only UFC win of his career last time out when he KO’d Charlie Ontiveros.

Maheshate is a fighter who is at his most effective from long-range, using kicks and straight punches to keep distance and avoid damage while inflicting some of his own. Garcia on the other hand is well-rounded but tends to use aggressive strikes to move forward and close distance, while he has mixed in wrestling in previous fights too. This is a huge step up in competition for Maheshate and he will likely stick to what he knows, which is quick counters and point scoring.

For Garcia he has proven vulnerable to counters in the past, but his chin has never let him down to date and Maheshate isn’t the heaviest puncher out there. He should be able to walk through a couple to mix in his wrestling and use his aggression to catch the eyes of the judges a claim a decision win.
PICK – Steve Garcia via Decision



Seungwoo Choi (10-4) vs Josh Culibao (9-1-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Featherweight banger up next between a very good Asian prospect and one of Australia’s best. Choi earned three wins in a row in the UFC before his last fight against Alex Caceres ended in a second-round submission defeat. Culibao alternatively got back on the winning horse last time out with a unanimous decision win over Nuerdanbieke Shayilan after a loss and a draw in the two fights prior.

Choi is an excellent striker who uses straights, hooks and uppercuts really well but often is guilty of headhunting regularly rather than mixing up the point of attacks. Culibao is also a talented striker, but he is more open to mixing in wrestling attacks to make up for a lack of one-punch power in the octagon. Both have improved since their initial signing with the organisation, but this seems to be a more favourable fight for Choi.

He has a big advantage in reach and height and Culibao’s wrestling against Charles Jourdain really saw him fail to implement his game plan. Choi isn’t the greatest wrestler either, but he’ll feel as if he has the advantage and could look to tie up and grapple every time Culibao closes the distance. It’ll be a fun stand-up battle for the most part, but Choi should claim the win on the cards.
PICK – Seungwoo Choi via Decision