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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) vs Gabriel Santos (10-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real banger in the featherweight division in a short-notice fight up next. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC and has won his last three in a row, KO’ing Ricardo Ramos and Makwan Amirkhani with a decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade in the middle. Santos is an undefeated fighter with seven finishes from his ten fights and is the current LFA featherweight champion.

Murphy is an all-round demon when it comes to the fight game with terrific wrestling and super powerful striking too. In fact, he seems to be better everywhere than Santos, but the Brazilian has got plenty of pressure and heart to keep going and the confidence of having never been beaten before. The one weeks’ notice is a big issue though.

Murphy hasn’t fought for almost 18 months after he was hit by a car while cycling, and if that health scare took a lot out of him then Santos has a chance. But if this is the same Murphy we’ve all come to know in recent years, he should have enough to get a stoppage win.
PICK – Lerone Murphy via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) vs Jafel Filho (14-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The hottest prospect in the flyweight division is back and takes on a Contender Series graduate in this one. Mokaev is 3-0 in the UFC after submitting Cody Durden and Malcolm Gordon while dominating Charles Johnson to a decision win too. Filho makes his UFC debut on a five-fight finishing streak, including a knockout win over Roybert Echeverria back in September.

Mokaev is one of the very best grapplers we have from the UK, with unbelievable wrestling skills to go with dangerous jiu-jitsu skills and some decent striking too. Filho is a very good submission artist with some decent power too, but he’s a level or two below where Mokaev is right now to put it simply.

Filho has the ability to catch Mokaev with a sneaky submission, but “The Punisher” is very good at staying safe and controlling his opponents. Expect that for long spells before he gets more aggressive late on and lands his own submission win to make a statement again.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Submission, Round 3

Sam Patterson (10-1-1) vs Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very interesting lightweight scrap up next between two guys making their UFC debuts. Patterson shone on the Contender Series with a solid submission win last time out, while Ashmoz is undefeated and makes the move over from the PFL for his first fight in exactly one year.

Patterson is a fighter who relies a lot on his cardio to get him through tough moments, with some excellent submission skills and lengthy striking technique because of his size. Ashmoz is a grinder who has a bit of everything, but there are a few levels between these fighters and the way they can execute a game plan.

The likelihood here is that Ashmoz is competitive early on before Patterson starts to piece him up on the feet, then shoots for a takedown too eagerly and leaves his neck exposed for Patterson to secure one of his trademark guillotine wins.
PICK – Sam Patterson via Submission, Round 2

Chris Duncan (9-1) vs Omar Morales (11-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight up next with yet another hometown fighter in the red corner. Duncan has won his last two in a row including a first-round KO win on the Contender Series last time out back in August, while Morales has lost three of his last four to Giga Chikadze, Jonathan Pearce and Uros Medic most recently.

Duncan is a striker with great power, but a real lack of defensive nous and a greater lack of speed leaves him with plenty to be desired. Morales steps into this fight on one month’s notice, and is an aggressive kickboxer with good power and technique too. He doesn’t have the grappling to be able to really make Duncan work, but this is an interesting fight.

On paper Duncan has the tools to win this, but Morales also has the ability to really outshine him and take a wide decision. I can’t see either man getting finished, and with a close fight expected I think Duncan will be able to do just enough to claim the win on the cards with his range, aggression and volume.
PICK – Chris Duncan via Decision

Jack Shore (16-1) vs Makwan Amirkhani (17-8) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A super fun fight to close out the prelims section of the card as Jack Shore makes his featherweight debut in this one. Shore lost his undefeated record to Ricky Simon most recently and opted to move up to continue his career, while Amirkhani has lost four of his last five including a TKO loss to Jonathan Pearce at UFC London in July last year in his last fight.

Shore is one of the most complete fighters to come out of the UK, with excellent wrestling and submission skills to go with powerful and technical striking. Amirkhani is very much a grappler with great submission skills, but his striking isn’t horrendous and he’s capable of mixing it in to secure takedowns. This is a good test for Shore moving up in weight, but he should have no problems here realistically.

He’s not out-sized despite the division change, he’s a fantastic grappler who is capable of more than holding his own on the mat and he’s by far the better striker. Amirkhani is notorious for having poor cardio too, so expect Shore to drag him into deep waters before getting a ground and pound finish somewhere in the middle round.
PICK – Jack Shore via Knockout, Round 2

ufc 286: edwards vs usman 3 – early prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns with arguably the most stacked card of the year at UFC 280 on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.

The lightweight title will be on the line in the main event as Charles Oliveira puts his 11-fight win streak on the line against the man on a ten-fight win streak, Islam Makhachev.

In the co-main event we’ll see the bantamweight title on the line when Aljamain Sterling defends for the second time, taking on former two-time champion TJ Dillashaw in a five-round bout.

We’ll also see Petr Yan take on Sean O’Malley, Beneil Dariush fight Mateusz Gamrot, Belal Muhammad scrap with Sean Brady and many, many more top bouts.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 62 we went 8/11 with three perfect picks to move to 741/1154 (64.56%) with 313 perfect picks (42.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Karol Rosa (15-4) vs Lina Lansberg (10-6) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A women’s bantamweight scrap between two ranked girls opens the card in Abu Dhabi. Rosa saw a six-fight win streak snapped last time out when she was beaten by Sara McMann back in March, while Lansberg has lost her last two to McMann and then Pannie Kianzad most recently back in April.

Rosa is a volume heavy striker, who uses her length and expert kickboxing abilities to outstrike her opponents while her takedown defence is more than decent. She’ll need it when she takes on Lansberg, who is a wrestle-heavy fighter with limited skills on the feet and not the greatest cardio in the world.

Lansberg will know that outwrestling Rosa is her best route to victory, but she’s nowhere near as good at wrestling as McMann was last time out and with little way of slowing the fight down she’s in trouble here. Rosa has the cardio and volume on the feet to land plenty over 15 minutes and so long as she avoids being held down on the mat for long periods of time, she should earn a pretty convincing decision win.
PICK – Karol Rosa via Decision

Muhammad Mokaev (8-0) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A very exciting flyweight bout up next between one of Britain’s hottest prospects in the flyweight division and the veteran Gordon. Mokaev is 8-0 professionally, dominating his opponents in his first two UFC bouts to submit Cody Durden in 58 seconds before a big decision win over Charles Johnson at UFC London. Gordon has also won his last two in the UFC, earning a decision over Francisco Figueiredo in July 2021 before Denys Bondar was forced to verbally submit last time out due to an arm injury.

Mokaev is a decent striker on the feet, but it’s his wrestling and ground game where he really excels and he’ll look to do that once again here. Gordon on the other hand has got some really powerful hands, but he’s also a slick grappler on the mat too as his six submission wins show. Mokaev will no doubt look to take this to the mat, and will have to watch for quick transitions or any loose limbs being taken.

But despite an 8-0 professional record, Mokaev has an extensive unbeaten amateur record too so is far more experienced than he seems. He will be focused on controlling from top position with his wrestling and staying safe, but will be keen for a finish after what was an underwhelming win last time out. Expect him to start fast and go for the finish before settling for a dominant decision win.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Decision

Armen Petrosyan (7-2) vs AJ Dobson (6-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Middleweight fighters step up next as two prospects go toe-to-toe. Petrosyan was on a three-fight win streak before clashing with Caio Borralho back in July and being pipped on the scorecards, while Dobson lost his UFC debut to Jacob Malkoun back at UFC 271 in his last outing.

“Superman” is a striker by nature, with a heavy kicking attack and good pressure which has helped him earn six knockouts from his seven career dates to date. Dobson on the other hand is a powerhouse with great striking and a good wrestling pedigree too, with five of his six wins coming via stoppage. Both guys are early on in their careers, but the level of progression from both has been interesting.

Dobson’s improvement from the Contender Series to his debut was huge, despite the result, and he has the skillset to cause Petrosyan a lot of problems. His pressure and size should see him able to back Petrosyan against the cage, where he can mix in his striking and wrestling well to earn a hard-fought decision win.
PICK – AJ Dobson via Decision

Abubakar Nurmagomedov (16-3-1) vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A welterweight clash between two Russian studs up next. Nurmagomedov has gone 1-1-1 in his last three, losing his UFC debut in 2019 by submission to David Zawada before returning in March 2021 to earn a unanimous decision win over Jared Gooden. Omargadzhiev on the other hand was unbeaten heading into his UFC debut back in April, before dropping a technical decision to Caio Borralho.

Nurmagomedov is a really well-rounded fighter, but his surname tells you where he excels most – wrestling. He also has some really sharp counter-striking on the feet making him a nightmare for fighters looking to take the fight to him, but his cardio has let him down in the past. Omargadzhiev is moving down in weight from last time, which should help considering he struggled physically last time out. But he has a problem with his output and Nurmagomedov is likely to punish him because of it.

I expect that Khabib’s cousin will use his jabs and counters to land damage, and mix in his excellent wrestling skills to put a hurting on Omargadzhiev and claim a big win.
PICK – Abubakar Nurmagomedov via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC London: Blaydes vs Aspinall – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to London’s O2 Arena for the second time this year for a stacked card, headlined by a heavyweight duel between top five big-men Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall.

We’ll also see the likes of Paddy Pimblett, Molly McCann, Mason Jones, Alexander Gustafsson, Paul Craig and Muhammad Mokaev competing in an event sure to provide plenty of fireworks.

Last week at UFC Long Island we went 8/12 with three perfect picks, moving us up to 685/1032 (64.34%) with 284 perfect picks (42.77%). You can check out our full history of picks here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Claudio Silva (14-3) vs Nicolas Dalby (19-4-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A fun welterweight scrap opens up the card in this one. Silva has lost his last two fights, dropping unanimous decisions to James Krause and Court McGee most recently. Meanwhile Dalby saw a six-fight undefeated streak snapped last time out, dropping a decision to Tim Means last time out.

Silva is a typical old fashioned Brazilian fighter who uses his excellent takedowns and jiu-jitsu skills to secure submissions, as his nine career submission wins show. Dalby on the other hand is a tidy kickboxer with decent boxing, but his takedown defence isn’t good and he’s a very slow starter.

That’s a big problem against someone like Silva, who will come out quickly and look to get this fight down to the ground quickly to work his grappling game. If he’s successful then this won’t last long, but if it goes on for a bit longer then Dalby should be able to grow and use his size and striking to pick Silva off from distance. That said, the fast start is a big problem so I think the Brazilian gets it done in this one, in one.
PICK – Claudio Silva via Submission, Round 1

Mandy Bohm (7-1) vs Victoria Leonardo (8-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two women coming off losses go head-to-head next in the flyweight division. Bohm suffered the first defeat of her career last time out, dropping a decision to Ariane Lipski while Leonardo has lost her two, getting KO’d by Manon Fiorot at UFC Fight Island 8 and then breaking her arm and retiring on her stall against Melissa Gatto at UFC 265.

Bohm is a decent striker with good mobility and movement as she looks to keep distance and pick her opponents off. Leonardo on the other hand is a strong grappler and wrestler, who uses her physicality to drive opponents against the cage and work her takedowns.

Leonardo’s only defeats in her career so far have come against top opposition, and her strengths lie exactly where Bohm’s weaknesses sit. Bohm is the better striker, but if she allows Leonardo to close the distance and get hold of her then I expect her to claim a comfortable win with control and damage on the mat.
PICK – Victoria Leonardo via Decision

Jai Herbert (11-4) vs Kyle Nelson (13-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Banger at lightweight up next as Herbert makes his return from the last UFC London event. He has lost three of four in the UFC, getting KO’d by Francisco Trinaldo (UFC Fight Island 3), choked out by Renato Moicano and KO’d again by Ilia Topuria. He earned his own stoppage win over Khama Worthy in the middle of that. Nelson on the other hand is in the same boat, but his fights stretch back to 2018. His last bout saw him KO’d by Billy Quarantillo most recently at UFC Vegas 10.

Herbert is a guy who absolutely loves to go to war with his guys, with solid striking and some decent wrestling defence in his locker too. He’s looked chinny in the UFC though, getting put out cold in both his KO losses. Nelson is a decent striker himself, with decent power, but he’s naturally a featherweight and he has a considerable speed disadvantage in this one.

Nelson will look to wrestle and slow Herbert down, but Herbert is so quick with such great technique and power on the feet as well as his defence that he’s likely to be able to catch him first with some powerful strikes to claim the win in impressive fashion in front of his home nation crowd.
PICK – Jai Herbert via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (7-0) vs Charles Johnson (11-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The super impressive undefeated Mokaev is back for his second UFC bout up next. He earned a brilliant debut win at UFC London back in March, choking out Cody Durden in just 58 seconds. Johnson on the other hand makes his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak, coming over from the LFA.

Mokaev is a brilliantly well-rounded fighter, with lightning quick strikes and good power to go with excellent grappling skills and some tight, technical chokes. Johnson meanwhile is super experienced, with good striking and scrambling skills and he will be a tough test for the 21-year-old without a doubt. With that said though, Johnson has some glaring faults that Mokaev should be more than ready to exploit.

Johnson has a habit of throwing naked kicks in punching range, and also backing himself up against the cage and going on the defence quickly. That makes him bread and butter for a wrestler as good and relentless as Mokaev is, and while I think Johnson should be able avoid being submitted I do expect him to be dominated for 15 minutes for another big win for “The Punisher”.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Decision

Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC London: Volkov vs Aspinall – Early prelims predictions

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After a three year absence the UFC returns to London and the O2 Arena for a huge UFC London fight card, headlined by heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall.

A stacked card will see the two heavyweights competing to get title contention with a win, while we’ll also see the likes of Arnold Allen take on Dan Hooker, Paddy Pimblett makes his UK return while Jack Shore, Nathaniel Wood and Muhammad Mokaev also compete too.

In case you’re unaware, we’ve done a list of five things you must not miss from this card too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 50 we went 11/14 with three perfect picks to move to 568/879 (64.62%) with 241 perfect picks (42.43%). You can see our full record here.

We’ll look to improve that record here, starting with the early prelims.

Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) vs Cody Durden (12-3-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A super interesting card opener at flyweight between debutant prospect Mokaev and the new most-hated Durden. Mokaev is 6-0 with a stacked 23-0 amateur record making his company debut, while Durden snapped a two-fight winless streak last time out by defeating Aoriqileng before going off on a racist rant in the octagon interview.

Mokaev has earned plaudits and comparisons to Russian duo Khamzat Chimaev for his quick rise, and has solid grappling and striking skills despite being just 21-years-old. Durden is a grinding wrestler who looks to put his opponents on their back and work them over with ground-and-pound. This is a tough debut for ‘The Punisher’, but he has got some great abilities and a chance to claim victory.

Durden will push a hard pace for the first round but his history tells you he will gas. Mokaev will scramble plenty and use his excellent hand speed and kicking techniques, before using his pressure and wrestling himself to wear on Durden and earn a hype TKO win midway through the second after a tough first round.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Knockout, Round 2

Nathaniel Wood (17-5) vs Vince Morales (11-5) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A very fun bantamweight fight here between one of Britain’s own against a very game opponent. ‘The Prospect’ came into the UFC with really high hopes but has suffered defeat in two of his last three, dropping a decision to Casey Kenny at UFC 254 most recently. Morales steps in on short-notice for this fight on a two-fight win streak, earning a decision against Drako Rodriguez at UFC 265 and then KO’ing Louis Smolka at UFC Vegas 44.

Wood is a talented grappler with solid submission skills and nasty low kicks, which serves as a great antidote against Morales’ biggest strength which is a monster right hand. Morales has struggled against pressure fighters with good takedowns in the past and on short notice that makes this an even worse stylistic match up than it would be normally.

After a long period out, Wood should be able to use his low kicks from range and mix in takedowns and his speedy one-two to cause trouble and out-point Morales for a much-needed win.
PICK – Nathaniel Wood via Decision

Cory McKenna (6-1) vs Elise Reed (4-1) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

An interesting strawweight bout in this one between one homegrown prospect and an American with aspirations of making a name for himself. McKenna is on a four-fight win streak, going 1-0 in the UFC so far aged just 22 with a decision win over Kay Hansen at UFC Vegas 14, while Reed lost her UFC debut getting smashed by Sijara Eubanks at UFC Vegas 32.

McKenna is a good pressure fighter with great hand speed and some good wrestling skills too, mixing up all her techniques well and never losing any sharpness. Reed is a kicker who likes to strike, but she’s naturally smaller having usually competed at atomweight outside the UFC.

This seems like a fight to get McKenna on the radar of the home crowd. At just 22 she’s got a huge future ahead of her and has the edge almost everywhere in this fight if she’s able to close the distance, so I expect her to mix it up well enough to claim a decision win.
PICK – Cory McKenna via Decision

five things not to miss at ufc london
MMA, Opinions

Five things not to miss at UFC London

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It’s fight week baby and for the first time in three years the UFC is back in London, England for a hugely exciting fight card.

Headlined by heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall as he looks to crack the top five against Alexander Volkov, the UFC have put some of Britain and Europe’s best talent together on the card for the fans.

But while there are some obvious headlines coming out of the card, here are some thing to look out for that you definitely don’t want to miss.

PADDY PIMBLETT AND ILIA TOPURIA BEEF

There’s a big rivalry brewing between these two hot prospects in the UFC, and the fact they’ve been in different weight classes may not even matter.

Ilia Topuria is an undefeated featherweight contender, currently sitting with a record of 11-0 and scheduled to fight against Jai Herbert at this event. But that fight will now take place at 155lbs, after a botched weight cut most recently.

Pimblett is one of the biggest names to come out of the UK & Ireland since Conor McGregor, with a record of 17-3 after winning his UFC debut in the lightweight division. He will fight Kazula Vargas at UFC London.

But these two have gone back and forth on social media in recent months and even came to blows in the hotel during check-in. If both are able to secure wins, don’t be surprised to see them meet in the octagon against each other before too long.

MUHAMMAD MOKAEV – A STAR WILL BE BORN

There a few undefeated prospects on this card, and one of the most exciting is Muhammad Mokaev in the flyweight division.

After going 23-0 in the amateur scene, Mokaev is now 6-0 (1 no contest) as a professional and will make his UFC debut against Cody Durden during the prelims section of the card.

Compared to Khamzat Chimaev and Khabib Nurmagomedov, the 21-year-old has a very bright future and you don’t want to miss out on the birth of a superstar at UFC London this weekend.

JACK SHORE V TIMUR VALIEV! – FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

Without doubt the fight of the night, and somehow it’s only on the prelims section of the card in the O2 Arena.

Shore is 15-0 and one of the best English talents in mixed martial arts, but he faces the toughest test of his career to date when he takes on the incredibly talented Valiev in their bout at 135-pounds.

Both men are incredibly well-rounded and will look to make an impression, with the bantamweight division one of the most stacked in the entire company. A win would be huge for both, and this should be fireworks. So don’t miss it!

ARNOLD ALLEN – NEXT FEATHERWEIGHT CONTENDER

Featherweight is screaming for a new contender at the top of the division, and Arnold Allen has the chance to make that place his own.

Currently ranked at number 7, ‘Almighty’ will take on Dan Hooker who returns from an exciting run at lightweight back into the division he originally entered the UFC in.

A high-profile win for Allen against a household name like Hooker would see the attention Allen gets rise exponentially, but also make his claims for a title shot far more legitimate.

With Alexander Volkanovski defending his title against Korean Zombie next month at UFC 273 and Max Holloway next in line, a win for Allen sets him up for a number one contender fight later this year to get a crack at gold in 2023.

TOM ASPINALL TITLE CHALLENGE?

The heavyweight headliner, Aspinall will fight in front of a UFC crowd for the very first time despite being 4-0 in the organisation after making his debut in 2020.

Taking on a veteran like Volkov is never easy, but there will be added pressure with the fight being in his home nation and in his first main event.

A win however would see him enter the title picture. Francis Ngannou is unlikely to fight again until the end of the year at best, it opens up plenty of opportunities for those around him.

The likes of Stipe Miocic, Tai Tuivasa, Ciryl Gane and even Jon Jones are hanging around, while Derrick Lewis will be keen to get back to winning ways too. The opportunities are aplenty with a win, but he must get a win first and foremost.

grudge match or mismatch – covington vs masvidal