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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) vs Gabriel Santos (10-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real banger in the featherweight division in a short-notice fight up next. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC and has won his last three in a row, KO’ing Ricardo Ramos and Makwan Amirkhani with a decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade in the middle. Santos is an undefeated fighter with seven finishes from his ten fights and is the current LFA featherweight champion.

Murphy is an all-round demon when it comes to the fight game with terrific wrestling and super powerful striking too. In fact, he seems to be better everywhere than Santos, but the Brazilian has got plenty of pressure and heart to keep going and the confidence of having never been beaten before. The one weeks’ notice is a big issue though.

Murphy hasn’t fought for almost 18 months after he was hit by a car while cycling, and if that health scare took a lot out of him then Santos has a chance. But if this is the same Murphy we’ve all come to know in recent years, he should have enough to get a stoppage win.
PICK – Lerone Murphy via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) vs Jafel Filho (14-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The hottest prospect in the flyweight division is back and takes on a Contender Series graduate in this one. Mokaev is 3-0 in the UFC after submitting Cody Durden and Malcolm Gordon while dominating Charles Johnson to a decision win too. Filho makes his UFC debut on a five-fight finishing streak, including a knockout win over Roybert Echeverria back in September.

Mokaev is one of the very best grapplers we have from the UK, with unbelievable wrestling skills to go with dangerous jiu-jitsu skills and some decent striking too. Filho is a very good submission artist with some decent power too, but he’s a level or two below where Mokaev is right now to put it simply.

Filho has the ability to catch Mokaev with a sneaky submission, but “The Punisher” is very good at staying safe and controlling his opponents. Expect that for long spells before he gets more aggressive late on and lands his own submission win to make a statement again.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Submission, Round 3

Sam Patterson (10-1-1) vs Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very interesting lightweight scrap up next between two guys making their UFC debuts. Patterson shone on the Contender Series with a solid submission win last time out, while Ashmoz is undefeated and makes the move over from the PFL for his first fight in exactly one year.

Patterson is a fighter who relies a lot on his cardio to get him through tough moments, with some excellent submission skills and lengthy striking technique because of his size. Ashmoz is a grinder who has a bit of everything, but there are a few levels between these fighters and the way they can execute a game plan.

The likelihood here is that Ashmoz is competitive early on before Patterson starts to piece him up on the feet, then shoots for a takedown too eagerly and leaves his neck exposed for Patterson to secure one of his trademark guillotine wins.
PICK – Sam Patterson via Submission, Round 2

Chris Duncan (9-1) vs Omar Morales (11-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight up next with yet another hometown fighter in the red corner. Duncan has won his last two in a row including a first-round KO win on the Contender Series last time out back in August, while Morales has lost three of his last four to Giga Chikadze, Jonathan Pearce and Uros Medic most recently.

Duncan is a striker with great power, but a real lack of defensive nous and a greater lack of speed leaves him with plenty to be desired. Morales steps into this fight on one month’s notice, and is an aggressive kickboxer with good power and technique too. He doesn’t have the grappling to be able to really make Duncan work, but this is an interesting fight.

On paper Duncan has the tools to win this, but Morales also has the ability to really outshine him and take a wide decision. I can’t see either man getting finished, and with a close fight expected I think Duncan will be able to do just enough to claim the win on the cards with his range, aggression and volume.
PICK – Chris Duncan via Decision

Jack Shore (16-1) vs Makwan Amirkhani (17-8) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A super fun fight to close out the prelims section of the card as Jack Shore makes his featherweight debut in this one. Shore lost his undefeated record to Ricky Simon most recently and opted to move up to continue his career, while Amirkhani has lost four of his last five including a TKO loss to Jonathan Pearce at UFC London in July last year in his last fight.

Shore is one of the most complete fighters to come out of the UK, with excellent wrestling and submission skills to go with powerful and technical striking. Amirkhani is very much a grappler with great submission skills, but his striking isn’t horrendous and he’s capable of mixing it in to secure takedowns. This is a good test for Shore moving up in weight, but he should have no problems here realistically.

He’s not out-sized despite the division change, he’s a fantastic grappler who is capable of more than holding his own on the mat and he’s by far the better striker. Amirkhani is notorious for having poor cardio too, so expect Shore to drag him into deep waters before getting a ground and pound finish somewhere in the middle round.
PICK – Jack Shore via Knockout, Round 2

ufc 286: edwards vs usman 3 – early prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs Vieira – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 55, headlined by women’s bantamweight contenders Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira.

In a rather underwhelming card, there is a banger of a co-main event on display though in the welterweight division when fan favourites Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira clash in a ranked bout.

Last week at UFC Vegas 54 we went 6/11 on the night with three perfect picks, moving our total to 628/976 (64.34%) with 268 perfect picks (42.68%). You can check out our total picks chart in detail here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Omar Morales (11-2) vs Uros Medic (7-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight bout up next. Martinez started his career 10-0 before he ran into Giga Chikadze at UFC Fight Island 5. He then beat Shane Young via decision at UFC 260 before losing last time out to Jonathan Pearce at UFC 266 via submission in the second round. Medic on the other hand suffered the first defeat of his career last time out, getting submitted by Jalin Turner so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back.

Morales is a steady fighter with good boxing and kicks, and decent power in his strikes too but the durability of a bull when it comes to taking damage. Medic showed in his last bout that he’s useless off his back, but he has got tremendous power in his strikes as once again the bout didn’t go beyond the first round. We haven’t seen much of him in the cage so it’s hard to get a read, and that makes it hard to pick him here too.

Morales is very well rounded, has solid leg kicks and has only ever been hurt by Chikadze in the octagon to date. If Medic can’t get him out of there in the first round we don’t know how he holds up, so I’m opting for a Morales decision once more.
PICK – Omar Morales via Decision

Jailton Almeida (15-2) vs Parker Porter (13-6) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big boys step up to the plate next in this one. Almeida is on a ten-fight win streak with all finishes, split evenly between knockouts and decisions. He defeated Danilo Marques via knockout in the first-round in his UFC debut last time out. Porter on the other hand has won his last three in a row, all by decision, with a steady win over Alan Baudot most recently.

Almeida is a powerhouse who looks to drag his opponents to the ground quickly and then decides whether to smash their head in with strikes and elbows or take their back and choke them out. Porter is a steady fighter, more along the traditional heavyweight lines, with decent low kicks and boxing as well as a haymaker of a right hand. This is a total mismatch of a fight though.

Porter on his back is immediately in trouble and his takedown defence is essentially non-existent, especially against someone as dynamic and talented as Almeida. Once he gets it there it’s a straight up assault, so expect a quick win for Almeida where he just pounds on him until the referee steps in.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Knockout, Round 1

Joseph Holmes (7-2) vs Alen Amedovski (8-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An interesting middleweight bout is the featured prelim bout of the night. Holmes made his UFC debut on short notice and suffered defeat to Jamie Pickett in his last bout, while Amedovski returns to fight for the first time since getting knocked out in 17 seconds back in 2019 by John Phillips.

Holmes is a well-rounded fighter with good height and range, using his kicks well and having some great chops on the ground to score submission wins too. Amedovski has been away for three years, so he may be a completely changed fighter. But the last time he fought he was a brawler with limited fight IQ considering he stood in the pocket and slugged it out with Phillips.

With that said, it’s impossible for me to go against Holmes. He has the ability to land at will from distance, has the durability to take Amedovski’s best shots, he’s been more active and his ground game is levels above anything we’ve seen in the past from his opponent. Holmes gets him down and strangles him early for the win.
PICK – Joseph Holmes via Submission, Round 1

ufc vegas 55: holm vs vieira – early prelims predictions
MMA, Results

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega – Results (Highlights)

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EARLY PRELIMS

Jonathan Pearce def Omar Morales via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2 (3:31)

Slow start to the fight for Pearce as Morales keeps the distance well in the opening minute and lands some nice low kicks. Pearce struggling to close the distance and Morales lets fly with some big strikes that just miss on the counter. Beautiful left hand from Morales followed by a big low kick but Pearce rushes him and goes for a takedown from the clinch, but Morales is able to get back up instantly and clinch up against the cage again. Pearce tries to drag him back down before a big trip gets him into top position, but Morales has the underhook and is able to sweep and get on top. Pearce holds on and then lands another big takedown, but Morales throws some big elbows and eventually gets back to the feet. More clinching against the cage as the round ends. Pearce didn’t do much damage but he controlled the ground game for the majority of the round, so 10-9 Pearce.

Fast start from Pearce this time as he ducks under a wild right hook and goes for the takedown immediately. Morales defends it well against the cage but Pearce is relentless with it and eventually gets him down and takes his back. Pearce slides off and Morales looks for a d’arce choke but he rolls and loses the grip, so Pearce gets up and gets on Morales’ back again. Morales is tired and Pearce has a body triangle, but Morales almost gives up full mount. Pearce landing some strikes on the ground and eventually sinks in a choke. Morales refuses to tap but passes out and the referee stops it! Big win for JSP!

Matthew Semelsberger def Martin Sano Jr via Knockout, Round 1 (0:15)

GOODNIGHT. Semelsberger throws out a couple of feeler shots, then lands a steaming right straight on the chin and Sano is out cold. Semelsberger lands one more while he’s down and this one is over.

Nick Maximov def Cody Brundage via Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)

Fun start from both guys as Brundage opens with a few strikes and knee, while Maximov shoots for a takedown but sees it get defended. Maximov lands two big strikes and Brundage starts throwing hard leg kicks to see him off. Maximov shoots in for a takedown and immediately transitions to the back, but Brundage defending well using a kimura grip and gets back to his feet. Maximov shoots in for another takedown and this time steps over Brundage to avoid the kimura defence and he ends up in a really positive position on top. Short strikes and Brundage just holding tight for the final 30 seconds. Maximov lands some heavy strikes and Brundage rushes back up to end the round. 10-9 Maximov.

Brundage goes in for an early takedown on Maximov but he reverses the position and ends up on top himself. Maximov takes the back and starts landing some nice ground and pound and then sinks his hooks in and takes Brundage’s back. Brundage starts working his way back up to the feet and eats a big knee, before he spins out and looks for a guillotine submission. Maximov pops his head out and is in full guard on top. He takes the back again and is looking for a choke. Brundage fights the hands and escapes but Maximov keeps his position on the back for the remainder of the round. 20-18 Maximov.

Final round and once again Maximov goes for a takedown to hold Brundage down but he defends it well. Nice right hand from Brundage changes Maximov’s balance and drops him. Maximov controlling the exchanges but Brundage now throwing big elbows from the bottom and Maximov is hurt. Some big strikes land on the ground and he ends up on top landing big strikes, but Maximov grabs a single leg and survives it. He gets back on top and holds the position for the rest of the round to hopefully secure a win. 29-28 Maximov.

Jalin Turner def Uros Medic via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 1 (4:01)

Turner starts the fight by taking the centre and flicking out a jab, then landing a nice left hand down the middle. Medic responds with two hard low kicks and then a high kick that lands, but Turner catches the leg high and takes Medic down into side control. Medic tries to sweep and roll through but Turner does well to keep full guard position. Medic pushes his way back to the feet but Turner follows him up and hurts him with a nasty body shot. Turner pouring on the pressure with strikes and body shots and he puts Medic down. He piles on more strikes, Medic turns to his knees, Turner synches up a choke and Medic taps! What a performance!

PRELIMS

Taila Santos def Roxanne Modafferi via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Fast start to this one on the feet from Santos, who lands some big hooks clean early on in some exchanges. Santos charges with strikes, clinches up and then secures a takedown with a trip inside the first 90 seconds. Santos teeing off with elbows and body strikes on the ground but Modafferi is working for an armbar off her back. Santos lands a big elbow strike to escape and goes back into full guard before Modafferi works her way back to her feet against the cage. Modafferi switches positions and lands some nice knees to the body, before Santos trips her again and takes back to the mat. Modafferi pops back up and looks to take Santos down against the cage but she defends well and lands some heavy knees to the body to close out the round. 10-9 Santos.

Modafferi comes out swinging in the second round and both women connect with big shots early, before Santos has a kick caught and Modafferi takes her towards the cage. Santos defends well but Modafferi staying patient and consistent with the pressure. Santos lands a huge right hook that wobbles Modafferi and Santos charges into her and takes her down to the mat. Modafferi’s eye is swollen and cut bad as Santos lands another big ground and pound strike before wearing on her from top position. Santos takes the back of Modafferi but she works her way back up to the feet against the cage, but Santos takes her straight back down again. Santos controls the position for the final minute and takes this round too. 20-18.

Santos takes the centre to start the final round and is looking to counter Modafferi with strikes. Modafferi steps forward and lands a couple of strikes but Santos responds with two hard straights of her own. Santos lands two huge hooks and Modafferi sits down on her butt, before Santos launches on to her and starts controlling position again. Santos landing some big elbow strikes from the top and Modafferi looks completely outclassed right now. Santos advances to side control with a cradle, then switches to take her back. Santos going for a choke but Modafferi fighting against it before Santos lets her back up on the feet. 90 seconds left and Modafferi still coming forward but Santos is landing her jab at will. Modafferi goes for a clinch against the cage but Santos throws her over her hip to end the round on top. 30-27, dominant.

Chris Daukaus def Shamil Abdurakhimov via Knockout, Round 2 (1:23)

Feeling out process to open up this fight as Daukaus just misses with an uppercut. Abdurakhimov hits a nice body shot and then goes for a spinning body kick as Daukaus throws a big right hand and both just miss. Abdurakhimov getting comfortable now and landing shots, with two big left hands catching Daukaus. Abdurakhimov goes to spin and Daukaus throws a leg kick at the same time which drops him. He gets back to the feet and Daukaus is head-hunting a little, but Abdurakhimov doing well to counter and keep him from landing flush. Daukaus steps forward and lands a huge left hook that drops him! He jumps on him for the finish and lands huge elbows and strikes but runs out of time. 10-9 Daukaus.

Daukaus steps forward early but Abdurakhimov is using his experience to slow the fight all the way down as he tries to recover. Big combination from Daukaus lands and Abdurakhimov is hurt! Daukaus comes forward and lands a huge right hook that drops him again! He goes for the finish and lands two huge elbows before the referee steps in and ends it! Huge knockout from Daukaus!

Dan Hooker def Nasrat Haqparast via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)

Slow start to the bout as Hooker takes the centre early on and starts cutting the cage off early on as Haqparast circles the outside. Hooker looks for a few straight rights and body kicks, and Haqparast explodes with a big left hand that just misses. Hooker throwing some body kicks and still controlling the centre, with Haqparast still just circling on the outside and looking to explode. More of the same as we enter the final minute, where Haqparast just misses with a one-two before Hooker goes for a takedown against the cage. Haqparast defends it well as Hooker releases it, lands a one-two with a knee just as the buzzer goes. 10-9 Hooker.

Lots of kicks in the second round from Hooker as he pushes the pace and tries to attack more. Hooker goes for a takedown against the cage and throws some nice knees in the clinch against the cage, but Haqparast defending the takedown attempt well. Hooker lands a knee that knocks the mouthpiece out of Haqparast’s mouth but he’s not hurt. Hooker starting to clinch and throw knees a lot more now with Haqparast on the outside. Clinch against the cage and Hooker lands a nice body shot then right hand and he’s starting to land a lot more now. Big right hand from Hooker and then he clinches and slams Haqparast down to the mat. Hooker into side control and he’s landing knees to the body to close out the round. 20-18 Hooker.

Haqparast starts the third round with two big strikes that land nice on the chin but Hooker eats them and responds with an accidental low blow. Haqparast now coming forward and landed a big right hand again. Both guys exchange body kicks and then Hooker changes levels perfectly and secures a takedown. Hooker goes straight into side control and is landing some short shots on the ground while controlling the position. Hooker landing plenty of short strikes and then transitions to the back and lands some nice shots. Haqparast bursts back up but Hooker immediately level changes and gets the fight back down to the ground. Hooker controls the position for the rest of the round and lands some good ground and pound to end the fight. Impressive performance from Hooker. 30-27.

Merab Dvalishvili def Marlon Moraes via Knockout, Round 2 (4:25)

Very fun start as Moraes takes the centre and starts throwing strikes and kicks out early. Two hard low kicks land and Merab didn’t like those, and he throws some hard hooks and goes wild. Moraes returns fire but Merab catches his leg and takes him down. Moraes gets back up quickly and separates well then lands some heavy strikes. Moraes lands a huge left hook that rocks Merab and goes for the finish! Some huge left hooks land heavy and Merab is literally running away across the cage to get away. Moraes follows him across and throws some big strikes that makes Merab stumble! Merab manages to shoot for a takedown and clinches against the cage, gets Moraes down and survives. Now he’s controlling the top position and he’s raining down punches from top position! Moraes is in big trouble but the buzzer goes! What a crazy round. I have no idea how to score it.

Merab comes out fired up for the second round and Moraes is still struggling. Merab launches forward with an overhand right that hurts Moraes immediately and he takes him down straight away. More huge ground and pound strikes from Merab and Moraes is in absolute agony getting pummelled. Merab keeps it going with powerful elbows and strikes and Moraes is finished. This fight could be stopped at any moment. Merab keeps going with punishing strikes and the referee FINALLY steps in. What a performance from Merab!

MAIN CARD

Jessica Andrade def Cynthia Calvillo via Knockout, Round 1 (4:54)

Patient start from Andrade who takes the centre and immediately starts walking Calvillo down against the cage. Calvillo throws a few jabs out there and some kicks, then Andrade counters with a stiff right hand that wobbles Calvillo. Calvillo firing back with some jabs and nice strikes, but Andrade is eating them and answering back with powerful shots of her own and Calvillo is feeling them. Another clean right hand from Calvillo, but Andrade lands some chopping low kicks and follows up with some short right hands. Calvillo is landing good strikes but the power behind them is lacking. Andrade charges forward and lands some big right hands clean, then follows it with an uppercut that hurts Calvillo! Andrade goes for the finish and lands several strikes to the head and the referee steps in with five seconds to go in the round to end the fight! Big win from Andrade!

Curtis Blaydes def Jairzinho Rozenstruik via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Fun start to the fight as Blaydes takes the centre quickly and starts flicking out a jab. Rozenstruik immediately gets a left hand off to let Blaydes know he’s there, but Blaydes is showing lots of movement and bouncing around. Blaydes changes levels and gets the takedown with ease early on, and starts working for position with some good ground and pound strikes. Rozenstruik gets back to his feet slowly but then gets back to striking range. Blaydes has a speed advantage it seems so far and is dictating the pace of the fight with his jabs. Blaydes lands a hard low kick and Rozenstruik responds with a wild hook that hits Blaydes’ back as he turns away to escape. Round ends with a short exchange. 10-9 Blaydes.

Rozenstruik comes forward with a nice left hand early on but Blaydes back to using his jab and dictating the pace of the fight. Rozenstruik explodes with a combination but gets nowhere near Blaydes, who is just popping the jab and throwing out low kicks. Blaydes goes for a takedown but missed it and Rozenstruik just missed with an uppercut. Not much action in this round as we enter the final 90 seconds. Rozenstruik goes for a huge flying knee that connects and then lands a big one-two on Blaydes! Blaydes immediately changes levels and gets a takedown, then advances straight to half-guard to start opening some ground and pound and end the round. 20-18 Blaydes.

Final round and Blaydes keeping calm on the feet and dictating the range once again with his jab. A couple of low kicks and Rozenstruik comes back with a right hand that just misses. Blaydes lands two nice jabs and a left straight, then changes levels and secures the takedown once again. Rozenstruik tries to kick Blaydes off him, but Blaydes stays calm and goes straight back to the ground and lands some big ground and pound elbows. Blaydes dominating position from the top as Rozenstruik just can’t get up and the round comes to an end. Comfortable decision win for Blaydes here. 30-27.

Robbie Lawler def Nick Diaz via Knockout, Round 3 (0:44)

Fast start to the fight from Lawler as he comes forward and immediately starts throwing bombs and body shots to Diaz. Lawler much faster and looks much more physically strong, but Diaz throwing some nice combos down the middle too. Lawler still coming forward and trying to chop the legs but Diaz starting to land more strikes now. Diaz stringing together some beautiful combinations but Lawler eating them well and coming forward with some shots of his own. Some big body shots from Diaz landing but Lawler looks a lot more powerful. Could argue a 10-9 either way, but I’d go Diaz.

Fast start again from Lawler in the second round as he comes forward and looks to impose himself on Diaz. Nice elbow lands from Lawler and then a big body kick lands that hurts Diaz! Diaz steps away and Lawler throws a big leg kick, but Diaz responds again with some more beautiful boxing combinations including four left uppercuts in a row. Lawler goes back to the body and Diaz steps away again, but Lawler is right on top of him and in his face. Diaz not fading at all though and landing lots of strikes, although there isn’t much behind them. Lawler lands his left hand well and is hunting Diaz down, but eats a body kick. Diaz lands a big right hand but Lawler eats it and comes forward again with some more body work that has Diaz looking to move away as the round ends. 19-19.

Third round and Lawler coming out aggressive once again, pushing Diaz to the cage and throwing big bombs. Lawler lands a big body shot and follows it up with a big right hook that hurts Diaz! Diaz goes down to one knee, Lawler smashes him again on the chin and he falls to his back. Lawler tells him to get up and Diaz says he can’t continue so this one is over! Wow!

Valentina Shevchenko def Lauren Murphy via Knockout, Round 4 (4:00)

Tense start from both ladies in this one, with both women just feeling each other out for the opening minute. Shevchenko lands a nice body kick and then just misses with a left hand. Shevchenko goes for another kick and Murphy catches it and looks to clinch, but Shevchenko steps away and lands a right hand on the break. Shevchenko looking to land hard with her left hand but just missing, before a nice right hand and low kick combo followed by a spinning side kick to the body. Left hand followed by a low kick again by Shevchenko before a big right hand starts some swelling on Murphy’s eye. Head kick from Shevchenko lands, followed by a right hand and a takedown to close out the round. Dominant from the champ, 10-9.

More of the same to start the second round from Shevchenko as she starts to dominate the striking exchanges again. Shevchenko goes to engage in a takedown but Murphy reverses it and tries to get a takedown of her own, only for the champion to deny it and step away with a big left hand. Counter right hook from Shevchenko lands again before a solid body kick and another takedown from the champion. Shevchenko laying in half-guard and controlling the position for now, with Murphy just holding on to try and avoid too much damage. Shevchenko lands some big elbows from the top as the round comes to an end. 20-18.

Shevchenko dominant again, landing her left hand and counter right hook at will essentially. Nasty body kick again and a spinning heel kick just misses. Shevchenko controlling every aspect of the fight so far, Murphy can’t get near her at all. Superman punch lands from the champion followed by a one-two and leg-kick combination again. At this point Murphy is just surviving and Shevchenko is having her way in a very one-sided affair. Murphy goes for a strike but Shevchenko changes levels and clinches against the cage to see out the round. 30-27.

Murphy trying to come forward a bit more but Shevchenko is just completely in control. Little slip from Shevchenko gets the crowd excited but she hops up and lands a big left hand down the pipe of Murphy. More kicks from Shevchenko as she starts upping the pressure a bit, and lands a nasty front kick to the face. Shevchenko lands a check right hook that wobbles Murphy and then a big head kick followed by a street-fighter like combo of strikes to the face as she goes for the finish! Murphy is still standing somehow and Shevchenko takes her down and starts looking for ground and pound with some nasty elbows and the referee steps in and ends it! As one-sided as they come!

Alexander Volkanovski def Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 50-45, 50-44)

Patient start from both guys as Volkanovski takes the centre of the cage and both guys flick out some jabs. Volkanovski lands a beautiful right hand but it’s countered by Ortega who lands one of his own. Volkanovski lands another right hand over the top which opens up a small cut above his eye. Ortega looking to step in with some jabs but Volkanovski keeping distance really well and then he landed a nice flush jab and big right hand too. Ortega lands a nice jab that opens up a small gash under Volkanovski’s eye, before slipping out of the way of two big strikes from the champion. Volkanovski stepping forward and starting to up the pace, but Ortega lands a nice counter left hand that wobbles Volkanovski. Jab from Ortega who then catches a kick and lands another left to close the round. Tough to score, but I’d go 10-9 Volk.

Very even fight so far as both men go blow for blow early in the second round. Ortega landing his jab well and the left hand behind it is landing on occasion too, while Volkanovski is closing the distance well and lands a big right hand clean himself. Volk throwing some leg kicks and Ortega fakes one in return but goes high instead and just misses. Volk steps in and throws some wild hooks and a big elbow, before looking to clinch up but Ortega immediately separates from him. Nice right hook from Ortega sends Volkanovski backwards but he responds with a heavy leg kick again. Volkanovski comes forward with a good combo but Ortega just staying at enough distance to not catch it flush. 20-18 Volkanovski.

Volkanovski starting well in this round and being a bit more aggressive with his striking and low kicks. Big right hand lands flush and Ortega eats it, then Volkanovski goes in for another but misses and they clash heads. Ortega looks unsteady and Volkanovski chopping at the leg, but Ortega fires back with a big combination that just misses. Volkanovski throws a leg kick that Ortega catches and he fires a left hand down the pipe that drops him! He jumps on a mounted guillotine and it’s tightttt but Volkanovski refuses to tap out! He pops his head out and escapes and gets back on top and starts landing bombs on an exhausted Ortega! Ortega throws up a triangle and locks it in and it’s tight again! Volkanovski once again refuses to tap and he pops out again and then gets back on top and rains down punches again but the buzzer goes! What a round!

The doctor allows Ortega to continue after a check and Volkanovski comes out hunting for him. Some big right hands land again and then Ortega goes for a takedown out of exhaustion. He trips Volkanovski and gets him down and looks for a guillotine again, but Volkanovski is safe and gets back on top to start raining down more ground and pound. Volkanovski is beating him up badly on the ground but Ortega is doing just enough to survive. Volkanovski lets him get back up but just misses with some big strikes as the round ends. 40-35 at a minimum to the champion.

Final round and Volkanovski staying patient in the centre again, but Ortega is in there giving it his all. Ortega goes for a takedown but Volkanovski defends it easy and lands a big right elbow. Ortega is coming forward with strikes and Volkanovski is backing up now, before Ortega lands a one-two and Volkanovski responds with a huge right hook. Big one-two from Ortega gets a nod of approval from Volkanovski. Both guys trading in the centre of the octagon as we enter the final minute of the fight. Ortega catches a kick and goes for a knee but misses. Final seconds and Ortega lands some huge strikes but Volkanovski is still standing as the buzzer goes and it’s all over. What a fight. Big win for the champion.

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega – Early prelims predictions

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An absolutely stacked UFC card heads to Las Vegas this weekend as UFC 266 hosts two title fights and a huge return to the sport.

Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega will finally meet for the featherweight title in their rescheduled fight from UFC 260, with ‘T-City’ looking to fulfil his destiny of becoming the top dog at 145lbs.

In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to continue on her path as one of the greatest mixed martial artists ever when she defends her flyweight crown for a sixth time against Lauren Murphy before the return of Nick Diaz to the UFC when he takes on Robbie Lawler and hopes to start something special with a win.

Last week at UFC Vegas 37 we went 9/13 with one perfect pick, moving us up to 411/646 (63.62%) with 178 perfect picks (43.31%). We’ll look to add to that and improve, starting with the early prelims here.

Jonathan Pearce (10-4) vs Omar Morales (11-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A fun featherweight bout to open up between two guys with one loss each in their UFC careers so far. Pearce lost his debut to Joe Lauzon in 2019 before bouncing back with a KO win against Kai Kamaka III at UFC Vegas 15, while Morales was beaten by Giga Chikhadze at UFC Fight Island 5, but recovered to earn another win against Shane Young at UFC 260.

Pearce is a long-time wrestler who looks to push the pace and wear on opponents, with excellent ground and pound leading him to eight KO wins in ten career victories. Morales on the other hand is a technical striker with excellent low kicks and improved wrestling in recent times. Morales has good defence and rarely exerts himself too much, but he does have a tendency to cruise in fights and Pearce will look to make him uncomfortable.

On the feet Morales has the advantage but on the ground and in grappling exchanges it’s Pearce who has the edge. Stylistically I think the fight suits Pearce a little bit more because of his volume and pressure but the experience and skill of Morales will likely see him get the decision win.
PICK – Omar Morales via Decision
BETTING TIP – Over 2.5 total rounds @ 8/15 (Bet365)

Matthew Semelsberger (8-3) vs Martin Sano Jr (4-2-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Some very odd matchmaking here in the welterweight division between Semelsberger and Sano Jr. ‘Semi the Jedi’ was on a five-fight win streak before losing to Khaos Williams at UFC Vegas 29, while Sano Jr has fought three times since 2014 and hasn’t won any of them.

Semelsberger is a powerful striker with a decent bit of wrestling in his back pocket too. Sano is the main training partner of Nick Diaz and that’s why he’s on the card, not because he’s done anything to earn himself a spot on the roster. He’s got okay boxing and okay jiu-jitsu, but he’s nowhere near good enough to do anything significant to Semelsberger here.

It’s a weird fight, but thankfully the chances of it lasting a long time are slim. Semelsberger lamps him hard in the first round and pours on more damage until the referee calls it quits in the first round.
PICK – Matthew Semelsberger via Knockout, Round 1

Cody Brundage (6-1) vs Nick Maximov (6-0) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A very short notice fight after Karl Roberson pulled out during fight week, the undefeated Nick Maximov now faces Cody Brundage in both men’s promotional debut. Brundage lost on Dana White’s Contender Series but bounced back with a submission win in February to get a chance here, while Maximov won on the Contender Series in November last year to earn his spot.

Brundage is a strong striker with excellent Muay-Thai skills, but he also has a good wrestling background too. Maximov however is the stronger grappler in this battle, with his style generally set around securing a takedown and controlling the position on the ground. Maximov has a great chin and some great jiu-jitsu skills too, training with the Diaz brothers.

Brundage would generally have a really good chance of winning this fight if it wasn’t on just three day’s notice. Because it is though, Maximov will be in fighting shape and his style is so wearing on an opponent that I think he’ll be able to secure a victory.
PICK – Nick Maximov via Decision

Uros Medic (7-0) vs Jalin Turner (10-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A fun lightweight fight to close out the early prelims as the undefeated Medic takes on the ‘The Tarantula’. Medic has a perfect record of seven wins in seven fights, winning against Aalon Cruz in the first-round last time out at UFC 259. Turner on the other hand has won his last two via finish, most recently securing a submission win against Brok Weaver at UFC Vegas 10.

Medic is a superb striker with powerful hands and strong kicks, with a real killer instinct having finished all of his career bouts. Turner is a powerful striker in his own fight, with long limbs helping him on the ground too for someone else who has finished all of his career wins. Both guys like to fight on the outside and use their range, which will play into Turner’s favour with a six-inch advantage. However, Medic’s speed and pressure is something that Turner isn’t a big fan of which makes this very interesting.

Both have the power to stop the other and while Medic isn’t the most proven fighter, he’s never lost. Turner has been stopped by strikes three times before, but he’s by far the best fighter that Medic will have ever fought. It’s a close fight no doubt and whoever wins will have earned it, but I think Medic will be able to show his talent and get a big win.
PICK – Uros Medic via Knockout, Round 2
BETTING TIP – Fight NOT to go the distance @ 8/15 (Bet365)

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MMA, Results

UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou 2 – Results (Highlights)

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EARLY PRELIMS

Marc-Andre Barriault def Abu Azaitar via Knockout, Round 3 (4:56)

Fast start to the bout for Azaitar as he comes out with some powerful hooks to begin but they miss the target for the most part. Barriault throws a hook back that makes Azaitar lose his balance and the two clinch up against the cage but Barriault accidentally lands a low blow for a short pause in the action. Azaitar comes forward very aggressively once more, with flurrys that end with a nice knee to the body before another clinch. Nice elbow in the clinch from Barriault but Azaitar responds with a big knee in the clinch that lands flush. Azaitar working the body well as they clinch up once again and staying very busy as we enter the final 90 seconds of the round. More knees to the body in the clinch from Azaitar but Barriault stay in there and eating, while returning with shots of his own. Nice counter left from Barriault lands in an exchange but Azaitar should take that round. 10-9.

Barriault takes the centre at the start of this round and is landing his jab well early on as Azaitar looks considerably slower than the first round. Barriault landing the better shots but then Azaitar comes forward with a nice leg kick. Azaitar throws a big hook that lands and wobbles Barriault, but he continues to come forward and continues to push a fast pace. Azaitar looks for a takedown, which his corner isn’t happy about, but Barriault defends it well to keep the fight standing. Big one-two lands from Barriault as Azaitar takes a big deep breath and is slowing down a lot. Nice uppercut lands from Azaitar and then a front kick lands but he’s very lathargic with his strikes and Barriault is walking him down now with big right hands. Barriault slips a left hook and lands three strikes in a row that wobble Azaitar but he’s staying in there and survives the round! 19-19.

Barriault takes the centre at the start of the third round and eats a big leg kick to make up ground and start landing big right hands. Azaitar is stiffened up and is fighting purely off instinct right now. Barriault lands a big right hand that drops Azaitar but the referee doesn’t stop it. Azaitar spits out his mouth guard with Barriault on top landing ground and pound and the referee stops the fight to allow him to put it back in and then the ground and pound continues, with Barriault landing huge shots. Azaitar continuing to move but it’s pure instinct and he’s taking a battering right now. This fight could be stopped at any moment but Azaitar is trying to move away. Barriault keeps landing huge strikes on the ground but the referee is letting them go with 30 seconds to go. Barriault is battering him and somehow Azaitar is surviving but the referee ends the bout with four seconds remaining! Huge win for the Canadian.

PRELIMS

Omar Morales def Shane Young via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Slow fight to this bout as both men engage in a feeling out process, both circling and flicking jabs but not going too hard. Young checks a leg kick from Morales and then both continue to just throw out feelers. Young pushes forward for a takedown against the cage but Morales defends well, puts in a body lock and reverses the position before picking up and dropping Young. Young gets back to his feet quickly and they clinch up against the cage to a stalemate as we enter the final minute of the round. Morales lands a nice uppercut as Young tries to enter for another takedown and they clinch up once more as the round ends. 10-9 Morales, but close.

Second round starts and Morales throws a leg kick pretty early that gets caught and Young immediately moves into top position. Morales defending off his back and as Young moves for a leg lock, Morales is able to stuff it and get back to his feet quickly. Morales doing well on the feet with a nice jab and some good leg kicks too, but Young is checking them well and closing the distance well. Young shoots in for a takedown again but Morales defends it well, then throws a knee that just misses. Morales takes the centre well and forces Young backwards then lands a nice leg kick, followed by an uppercut that Young just eats. Two jabs and then a one-two from Morales lands clean and forces Young backwards again. Morales pours on the pressure towards the end of the round with his right hand and a knee attempt as they end in a clinch. 20-18 Morales for me.

Morales looks to take the centre early in the third round and throws his jab well, but Young does well to change it around and they clinch in the centre. Morales is able to get a trip and gets into a dominant position in side control, but Young is able to scramble and chase a single leg takedown of his own to get back to his feet. They clinch against the cage again and Young shows a physical strength advantage, but Morales lands a couple of nice leg kicks as they separate and fighting well behind his jab. Nice right hand lands from Morales as we enter the final minute, but Young keeps coming forward and then ducks a high kick to look for a takedown but Morales defends well to end the fight and likely take the win. 30-27 Morales.

Michal Oleksiejczuk def Modestas Bukauskas via Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)

Bukauskas opens the fight with a spinning heel kick that misses by a matter of inches, before Michal steps forward and lands a big left hand early. BUkauskas lands a decent right hand but Michal is walking him towards the cage well. Bukauskas shoots for a takedown but it’s well stuffed, before a clinch exchange allows Bukauskas to show his strength advantage as he powers him all the way across the octagon. Bukauskas lands a nice right hand flush and then steps forward with a nice flurry that hurts Michal! He goes for a finish but Michal defends well and recovers. Bukauskas throws a straight that Michal slips and throws a big overhand left that lands clean! Michal starts walking Bukauskas backwards again and misses with a left hand but then lands a nice right hand. Bukauskas throwing lots of kicks to try and maintain the distance but Michal continues to step forward and close it. Both men land a few more shots and Bukauskas ends the round with a head kick that is partially blocked. Really competitive round, I lean 10-9 to Bukauskas.

Second round is more of the same, as Michal comes forward and throws lots of hooks but Bukauskas continues to circle on the outside and uses his length well to keep a distance. Michal keeps marching forward and lands a nice left hand but Bukauskas eats it well. Michal throws it again and lands flush on the chin, but Bukauskas continues to move well and then throws a nice front kick to the body. Bukauskas lands two straight rights nicely then misses a wild overhand, as Michal looks to grab a leg but does nothing with is. Bukauskas lands a nice lead elbow but Michal clinches up and eats it, before Bukauskas shows the physicality advantage again and is able to reverse the position and then separate. Bukauskas lands a head kick and then ends with a round with a big flurry of hooks that land, but Michal still there and probably takes that round. 19-19 for me but it’s close.

Bukauskas and Michal in the final round following a similar pattern to the previous two, with Bukauskas circling on the outside. Both men throw a right hook but it’s Bukauskas who lands better and then he follows it up with a straight and an uppercut too. Michal goes in for a body lock looking for a takedown but Bukauskas defends it really well and uses the cage well to keep the fight standing. Michal throws a couple of knees but nothing that troubles Bukauskas who is able to separate and is starting to land some good strikes of his own. Michal continues to march forward but Bukauskas is happy to trade with him now as we enter the final 90 seconds. Big right hook lands from Michal but Bukauskas eats it and throws a right hand of his own. Michal throws a huge uppercut to the body that has really hurt Bukauskas but Michal hasn’t noticed how hurt he is and both men go out swinging as the fight goes the distance. Great fight, 29-28 Bukauskas for me.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov def Jared Gooden via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)

Gooden opens up the round super relaxed, carrying his hands down by his hips ready for any takedown attempts and throwing some jabs that immediately redden the eye of Nurmagomedov. Gooden has a big speed advantage and is able to get in and out quickly but Nurmagomedov not rushing for any grappling and is throwing his jab very well too. Nurmagomedov closes the distance and lands a big one-two flush on Gooden’s chin that rocks him! He closes the distance and looks to take the fight down but Gooden is able to escape quickly. Nurmagomedov throws a strong leg kick and then a big knee in the clinch too. Another jab from Nurmagomedov has Gooden backing up and he’s now started to carry his hands a bit higher in respect of Nurmagomedov’s strikes. A big left hook from Nurmagomedov lands again and he just misses with a follow up head kick, then ends the round with a nice jab. 10-9 Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov takes the centre in the second round and lands his jab well once again as Gooden starts to throw his right hand some more. Nurmagomedov steps back and slips the punches brilliantly before landing a nice right hand of his own. Nurmagomedov is piecing Gooden up on the feet right now, completely dominating the striking exchanges. Big right hand lands and then throws a huge head kick that lands and hurts Gooden! Nurmagomedov backs Gooden against the cage and looks for a clinch, throwing elbows and a nice left hand. Gooden can’t get near him right now as he eats another jab flush to the nose. Big left hand lands clean on Gooden whose chin is holding up well right now as the round comes to an end. 20-18 Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov using his jab once again early on, completing in control of the striking exchanges. Gooden takes the centre and loads up a nice uppercut but Nurmagomedov shoots in for a takedown and ends up with a body lock on the back. He picks him up and drops him down, but Gooden does well to get back to his feet before Nurmagomedov shoots in for a takedown once again and ends up on top. Gooden throwing great elbows from the bottom but Nurmagomedov eating them well and controlling the position before landing some ground and pound of his own. He steps over into half guard and starts setting up an arm triangle, but Gooden is aware and defending it well. Both men throwing body strikes on the ground as we enter the final minute of the round. Nurmagomedov controls the position for the remainder of the round and should take a comfortable decision win.

Alonzo Menifield def Fabio Cherant via Submission (Von Flue Choke), Round 1 (1:11)

Menifield comes out flying with a big one two and then goes for a takedown early. Cherant looks to lock up a guillotine but Menifield is able to turn him and slam him down with a big takedown into side control. Cherant keeps hold of the neck, all the while Menifield is synching in a Von Flue choke. He gets it tight and heavy and Cherant has no choice but to tap out! What a win for Menifield!

MAIN CARD

Jamie Mullarkey def Khama Worthy via Knockout, Round 1 (0:46)

Fast start to the round for both guys as Mullarkey lands a nice left hand early before Worthy responds with a couple of jabs. Mullarkey fakes a couple of shots and then throws a big, tight left hook that catches Worthy on the chin and gets him wobbling and faceplants! Mullarkey rushes in with a few ground and pound strikes and the referee steps in the wave it off! Huge win for Mullarkey!

Miranda Maverick def Gillian Robertson via Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)

Nice active start to the fight from both ladies, with Maverick throwing nice combinations early and staying out of range of Robertson’s attacks. Maverick holding the centre well and and landing the better strikes in the exchanges on the feet, but Robertson not backing up too much and throwing some strikes of her own. Maverick lands a nice short-right hook and lots of leading leg kicks to the body. Maverick pushes Robertson onto the ground and then jumps on top with really heavy top pressure, then lands a couple of ground and pound strikes as Robertson looks to get back up to her feet. Maverick shoots a power double leg and gets the fight down with ease as the round comes to an end to take the opening round. 10-9 Maverick.

Busy start to the second round for Maverick as she seems to be more aggressive, landing some heavy punches and coming forward with more intent. Nice superman punch lands from Maverick then Robertson changes levels and shoots in for a takedown, then secures top position. Maverick tries to escape by kicking out and swinging her hips, but Robertson adjusts perfectly and looks to take the back now. Robertson sticking to her like glue and trying to find submissions, but Maverick is doing well to keep moving and not settling for positions. Robertson keeps looking for the positions but Maverick is eventually able to get back to the feet with about 45 seconds remaining in the round. Maverick spends the rest of the round walking Robertson down and landing big shots against the cage but should still be a Robertson round. 19-19.

Maverick comes out swinging in this third round and is walking Robertson down, landing some big straight punches. Robertson shoots for takedowns but Maverick defends them twice and then is able to take Robertson’s back herself. She switches into full mount and then side control and is landing some big ground and pound strikes, but Robertson is threatening with an armbar. Maverick is able to escape the armbar and gets back on top to land more ground and pound. Robertson tries to sweep her but Maverick too strong and gets back to the feet. Maverick lands a couple of straights against the cage then shoots for a takedown of her own and sees out the round in a dominant position to take a decision.

Sean O’Malley def Thomas Almeida via Knockout, Round 3 (3:52)

Good start to the round for O’Malley as he opens with a clean one-two on Almeida’s chin. O’Malley switching stances well and landing kicks to the body and legs, with Almeida seeming quite hesitant early on. O’Malley lands another one-two and then a nice spinning back kick to the body before Almeida lands a big hook of his own. O’Malley throws a big head kick that seems to land with the knee and then a big left hand drops Almeida! O’Malley walks away but the referee doesn’t wave the fight off and he goes back in with a spin kick that misses. O’Malley looking for style points for a finish but Almeida has recovered now and O’Malley sees the round out with some more clean striking. 10-9 O’Malley for sure.

O’Malley opens up with some front kicks to the body and a calf kick, but Almeida coming forward still and lands a couple of leg kicks of his own. O’Malley landing with his left hand in a one-two quite cleanly and often, but Almeida refusing to go away. Some knee stomps from O’Malley and kicks as he continues to switch stances, showing great speed to be first in the exchanges. O’Malley goes for a flying knee towards the end of the round and misses, falling onto his back. Almeida lands a big shot on the ground but O’Malley uses his long legs to defend really well and sees out the round. 20-18 O’Malley.

O’Malley opens up the round with a huge calf kick that takes Almeida’s balance away, before a knee stomp once again makes Almeida very uncomfortable. A few more leg kicks land and then O’Malley throws a nice one-two, but Almeida continues to come forward. Exchange near the cage and Almeida lands a decent left hand, but O’Malley continues to slip the majority of the shots and landing well himself. Beautiful one-two from O’Malley lands and Almeida just can’t get near him. Huge left hand as he moves backwards catches Almeida and drops him and O’Malley tries to walk off again but the referee doesn’t stop it again! O’Malley strolls over and lands one nasty ground strike that puts his lights out and that’s that! The ‘Suga’ show is back!

Vicente Luque def Tyron Woodley via Submission (D’Arce Choke), Round 1 (3:56)

Woodley comes out and immediately goes for a body lock and takedown against the cage. Luque defends it well and is able to rotate Woodley against the cage, but they fight to a stalemate and eventually separate. Woodley lands a big overhand right and then a couple of one-twos before going back to his wrestling, where Luque is able to steady him and get him back against the cage. Luque throwing punches to the body while Woodley looks for knees as they clinch up before separating. Woodley throws a huge right hand that wobbles Luque and he goes for the kill with big punches, then Luque fires back with a huge right overhand that lands on Woodley’s chin and wobbles him! Luque comes forward and throws bombs and Woodley is in trouble! He throws a hook that lands on Luque and wobbles him back then goes for a takedown but his legs give out on him. Luque drops down and locks in a d’arce choke and despite fighting it against the cage, Woodley is forced to tap! Huge win for Luque!

Francis Ngannou def Stipe Miocic via Knockout, Round 2 (0:52)

Ngannou opens the round with a heavy low kick that Miocic eats and continues to circle on the outside. Miocic lands a couple of leg kicks of his own before Ngannou explodes with a big right hand that lands clean and Miocic just eats. Ngannou explodes again and Miocic shoots in for a double leg takedown but Ngannou defends it brilliantly, sprawls and is able to take Miocic down himself! He takes the back of Miocic and starts throwing some heavy shots but the champion eats them and separates. Ngannou then throws a head kick that lands clean but once again Miocic eats it. A couple more leg kicks from Miocic in the remainder of the round, but it’s a Ngannou round. 10-9.

Miocic comes out and knows he needs to be a bit more aggressive. Ngannou being patient in the middle once more and lands a nice leg kick. Ngannou throws a big left hand that rocks Miocic and drops him! He goes for the finish and lands some big shots but Miocic gets back up and eats an uppercut. Miocic lands a massive left hand of his own but Ngannou eats it and then lands a short left hook that puts Miocic’s lights out! He lands one more huge shot before the referee gets there but this is all over! NEW CHAMPION!

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 260: Miocic vs Ngannou 2 – Prelims predictions

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It’s the big one, as the baddest man on the planet is decided in the main event of UFC 260 when Stipe Miocic defends his heavyweight championship against Francis Ngannou.

The two met previously during Miocic’s first reign as champion, and he dominated to a victory but yet he is still the underdog coming into this fight. Overlooking Miocic seems crazy, but it’s happening again and not least because of the sheer power of his opponent.

In the co-main event, Tyron Woodley fights for his career in the UFC as he takes on Vicente Luque after the featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega was cancelled due to a positive COVID-19 test.

Last week at UFC Vegas 22, we went 6/10 with three perfect picks to move to 262/416 (62.98%) with 118 perfect picks (45.04%).

There are scheduled to be ten bouts on this card, so lets look to improve that record starting with the prelims here.

Marc-Andre Barriault (11-4) vs Abu Azaitar (14-2-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An interesting clash to open the card in the middleweight division. Barriault is winless in his last four fights, losing three in a row before knocking out Oskar Piechota. That fight was overturned to a no contest though, when he failed a drugs test. Abu Azaitar makes a long awaited return to the roster, having not fought since 2018 following fights falling out and a failed drugs test of his own. He hasn’t lost since 2012 though and before his spell on the sidelines had won five in a row.

‘Power Bar’ Barriault is a technical striker with big power punches, but he struggles with takedowns and looks to take your head off with every punch. Azaitar is an average striker with wrestling good enough to get him out of rough spots, but not much else. He’s now 35 and hasn’t fought in almost three years which just makes this a nightmare match up for him. Barriault is bigger, stronger, more powerful and Azaitar isn’t a strong enough wrestler to trouble Barriault’s takedown defence.

Unless Azaitar has made big changes in his time away, which is possible, I think Barriault gets him out of there.
PICK – Marc-Andre Barriault via Knockout, Round 2

Shane Young (13-5) vs Omar Morales (10-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Two exciting featherweights come into this card looking to bounce back from a defeat last time out. Young was KO’d by Ludovit Klein at UFC 253 back in September on Fight Island, while Morales was well beaten by Giga Chikadze the following week at UFC Fight Island 5.

Young is a fine striker, who loves to throw combinations and mixes it up with some kicks too while Morales is a former lightweight who throws big shots and relies on that power to put his opponents on the back foot. He has good submission skills, with half his career wins coming via tap out but this will likely be a stand up bout. Morales has the power advantage between the two and while Young has a more volume-heavy approach, he has shown to be far more hittable than the fighters Morales has struggled against in the past. Young will probably land more shots, but Morales will land the bigger stand-out shots to take a close decision win.
PICK – Omar Morales via Decision

Modestas Bukauskas (11-3) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (14-4) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

Two young light heavyweights looking to get back on the winning trail in this highly exciting match up. Bukauskas made his UFC debut back on Fight Island and got the knockout win in interesting circumstances with big elbows to deny a takedown before the round ended, with his opponent unable to get back up and answer the round. He then got knocked out by Jimmy Crute a few months later, while Oleksiejczuk’s last bout was also a defeat to Crute where he was submitted in the first round in February 2020.

This is a really interesting fight because both men excel where the other struggles, which means this fight could well be one-sided in either direction. Bukauskas has phenomenal cardio and does hit hard while Oleksiejczuk is a bulldozer who will take your head off if given the opportunity. Bukauskas often finds himself with his back against the cage and with no takedown offence in his arsenal, Oleksiejczuk will march him down and throw his vicious combos to make the gas tank null and void.
PICK – Michal Oleksiejczuk via Knockout, Round 1

Jared Gooden (17-5) vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov (15-3-1) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A fun welterweight bout between two guys who lost their UFC debuts. Gooden took on Alan Jouban at UFC 255 and was well beaten to a unanimous decision, while Nurmagomedov was submitted by David Zawada back in November 2019. This is his first fight since then.

This is a complete clash of styles, with Gooden a good striker with not-so-great grappling while Nurmagomedov is a rubbish striker with grappling that goes hand in hand with his surname. Gooden throws some good strikes up the middle that will make Nurmagomedov think twice about shooting in lazily, but it’s his clearest path to victory. Gooden could definitely clip him and we’ve seen Nurmagomedov freeze up when hurt before, but I think his grappling skills should see him able to get the fight down often enough to secure top control and a win.
PICK – Abubakar Nurmagomedov via Decision

Alonzo Menifield (9-2) vs Fabio Cherant (7-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A super-late notice bout in the light heavyweight division as Alonzo Menifield takes on UFC debutant Fabio Cherant. Menifield has lost his last two, dropping a decision to Devin Clark at UFC 250 before being knocked out by Ovince Saint-Preux, while Cherant has won his last three after the first defeat of his career in Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2019.

Menifield is a power striker, with eight of his nine career wins coming via knockout, while Cherant is a very different type of fighter with five of his seven wins coming via submission. Menifield is a very big 205lber and is good at backing his opponent against the cage to try and unload his heavy hands. Cherant is very well rounded fighter but coming in on just a few days’ notice is likely to hinder him more than help him. If Menifield can apply pressure early and land big against the cage, he should get the win. The longer the fight goes though, the more likely it is that Cherant can get a big upset win.
PICK – Alonzo Menifield via Knockout, Round 1

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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Fight Island 5: Moraes vs Sandhagen – Early Prelims Predictions

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The UFC returns to Fight Island for part three of their five part series this time around and it’s a bantamweight clash that headlines this one.

Marlon Moraes looks to get back into title contention following his win over controversial win over Jose Aldo last year when he takes on Cory Sandhagen who tries to bounce back from his defeat to Aljamain Sterling back in June.

It’s a full card this weekend with 13 fights scheduled so we’re going to split it into three once again and look to break down each fight and predict how they all go.

Last weekend we secured 7/11 correct picks with four perfect picks (winner, method, round) so we’ll look to carry on the good run with this card.

EARLY PRELIMS

Bruno Silva (10-4-2) vs Tagir Ulanbekov (10-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

‘Bulldog’ Bruno Silva makes his third walk to the octagon looking for the first victory of his UFC career when he takes on Tagir Ulanbekov making his UFC debut from the Eagles MMA camp alongside Khabib Nurmagomedov. Much like the lightweight champion, Ulanbekov is a world class wrestler and grappler who’s style relies entirely on taking you down and smothering you on the mat. Silva is a great jiu-jitsu fighter but the likelihood is that he ends up on the bottom and suffers great pain for 15 minutes before a very one-sided decision.
PICK – Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision

Tracy Cortez (7-1) vs Stephanie Egger (5-1) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A very interesting fight in the women’s 135lbs ranks as Tracy Cortez looks to make it back-to-back wins in the UFC over debutant Stephanie Egger. Cortez is a pressure fighter who is very well-rounded in all aspects of the sport, while Egger is a renowned judo fighter who holds a win over Ronda Rousey in her judo career. She has since rounded out her skillset and is a blue belt in jiu-jitsu while also adding kicks and striking to her game. She’s the larger woman physically but Cortez is more skilled. She’s a good wrestler herself so is no stranger to the ground and to clinches. She’s not the strongest physically which is where Egger has the advantage but if Cortez uses her greater experience and can use her striking efficiently she should be able to claim a decision win.
PICK – Tracy Cortez via Unanimous Decision

Giga Chikadze (10-2) vs Omar Morales (10-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A fascinating scrap expected in the featherweight division when two fighters undefeated in the octagon face off with each other. Giga Chikadze has won three in a row in the UFC and five overall while Morales has never tasted defeat in his professional career and has won twice in the octagon previously. On the face of it, both men are stand up fighters who like to use their kicks from range and Chikadze for me is the better of the two when it comes to that type of fight. Despite that however, Morales showed some decent wrestling chops in his last fight and that could be a more than viable plan B. Morales is the bigger man, moving down from lightweight for this fight and Chikadze has struggled convincing judges unanimously so far with two out of three split decisions. Overall, if Morales’ weight cut doesn’t effect him too much he could pull off the upset but I think Chikadze will do just enough to scrape another close decision.
PICK – Giga Chikadze via Unanimous Decision

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