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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns to Perth, Australia for one of the biggest main event bouts in history as Alexander Volkanovski moves up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev for the title.

The undisputed featherweight champion is currently ranked as the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, while Makhachev is ranked at number two, making this the first time the top two fighters in the company have gone head to head.

We’ll also see an interim featherweight champion crowned in Volkanovski’s absence from the 145-pound division, as Yair Rodriguez takes on Josh Emmett in an exciting fight too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 68 we went 6/10 with three perfect picks (we don’t count draws) to move to 829/1287 (64.41%) with 340 perfect picks (41.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims section of the card, then moving on to the rest of the prelims here, we finish up with our main card picks.

Jimmy Crute (12-3) vs Alonzo Menifield (13-3) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A very fun light heavyweight bout opens up the main card next. Crute has lost his last two after suffering a leg injury against Anthony Smith, before being KO’d cold by the new champion Jamahal Hill most recently in just 48 seconds. Menifield has won his last two alternatively, KO’ing both Askar Mozharov and Misha Cirkunov in the first round.

Crute is a tidy boxer, but it’s his excellent wrestling and incredibly top pressure that saw him break onto the scene in the UFC as a top prospect. Menifield is a striker with an absolute weapon of a right hand, but his overall skillset isn’t the most well-rounded and that’s a problem here. Crute’s chin has obviously shown that it can be cracked, and Menifield has the power to dent it further.

However Crute will know he has a clear route to victory in the grappling, and the likelihood is that he will need just one takedown per round to get it there and keep it there. Expect him to avoid the early hammer blow and take Menifield down early, before controlling for 15 minutes for a wide decision win.
PICK – Jimmy Crute via Decision

Justin Tafa (5-3) vs Parker Porter (13-7) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Heavyweights up next in a fight that doesn’t really belong on the main card of a pay-per-view if we’re being honest. Tafa has lost two of his last three, but earned a KO win over Harry Hunsucker last time out back in December 2021. Porter on the other hand was on a three-fight win streak with decisions over Josh Parisian, Chase Sherman and Alan Baudot before running into Jailton Almeida most recently and getting choked out in the first round.

Tafa is just a brawler, stepping forward and throwing bombs until he hits something and it drops. He’s got very good takedown defence so far throughout his career too, with a 100% defence rate. Porter is a bog-standard heavyweight who throws the odd strike with power and has a few leg kicks in his game too. He is an okay wrestler with good top control, and that’s probably where he’ll look to take this fight.

The only reason for this fight to be on the main card is because the UFC wants Tafa to land an explosive strike that folds Porter up and gets the crowd absolutely electrified. The chances are they’ll get it, but if they don’t this could be the longest 15 minutes of the night.
PICK – Justin Tafa via Knockout, Round 1

Jack Della Maddalena (13-2) vs Randy Brown (16-4) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

One of the best welterweight fights of the year so far between absolute stars. Maddalena is undefeated since losing his first two professional bouts, going 3-0 in the UFC with KO wins over Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts. Brown is on a four-fight win streak having submitted ‘Cowboy’ Alex Oliveira with a standing rear-naked choke, before earning decisions over Jared Gooden, Khaos Williams and Francisco Trinaldo most recently.

Maddalena is a phenomenal striker, with excellent power and boxing combinations as well as great cardio to keep up his all-action style throughout 15 minutes. Brown is an explosive striker with great power himself, but he’s also a very talented grappler and solid wrestler too. That wrestling could be key in this fight, because on the feet I probably edge it slightly in the Australian’s favour.

On the mat Brown is definitely the better grappler, but he’s not someone who uses the wrestling as his primary game plan much. If he chooses to do that, he could find success but it could also find him being more tired later in the fight than usual. If they go blow for blow on the feet then it’s a coin toss but with Maddalena in his own back yard and with all the hype and momentum behind him, I think he can get it done in a brilliant fight.
PICk – Jack Della Maddalena via Decision

Yair Rodriguez (15-3) vs Josh Emmett (18-2) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real sleeper of a fight in the co-main event as the interim featherweight title is on the line. Rodriguez ran Max Holloway really close back in November 2021, before beating Brian Ortega due to a shoulder injury to earn this shot. Emmett on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak, earning his title shot with a split decision win over Calvin Kattar last time out.

Rodriguez is one of the greatest strikers in the UFC, with an incredible array of kicks and some great power in his hands as well as incredibly explosive elbows and knees. He’s also got some more than decent wrestling defence to go with those kicks, meaning he can always use them. Emmett has moved away from his strong wrestling base in this win streak, landing great volume and power with his striking and using his cardio as a weapon. Stylistically this is a very interesting fight, because Emmett’s wrestling is a game changer but isn’t what got him to the dance.

In a striking battle I have no doubts that Rodriguez will win with ease and potentially get the finish with his counter striking and kicks. If Emmett wrestles though he has the chance to control the fight on the mat. For me however, Yair is good enough in scrambles to get back to his feet and he can do so much damage on the feet with his variety of striking that it would be a big shock to me if Yair didn’t leave Australia with the belt.
PICK – Yair Rodriguez via Decision

Islam Makhachev (23-1) vs Alexander Volkanovski (25-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

The best fight the UFC can make today takes place in the main event at UFC 284 as lightweight champion Islam Makhachev makes his first defence against current featherweight champion and number one ranked pound-for-pound fighter Alex Volkanovski. Makhachev is on an 11-fight win streak, winning the belt by submitting Charles Oliveira back at UFC 280 most recently. Volkanovski is on a 22-fight win streak, including 12-0 in the UFC, with a third win over Max Holloway last time out at UFC 276.

Makhachev is the best wrestler in the UFC pound-for-pound, with incredible trips and technique. But his striking abilities are largely overlooked and they have improved greatly in recent years, as he showed when he dropped Oliveira in their bout. Volkanovski is arguably the most well-rounded fighter in the company right now, with brilliant striking and boxing techniques to go with solid wrestling defence and offense and great movement. Stylistically this fight is insane, because Volkanovski is so good defensively and so powerful with insane heart some of the best cardio around.

But Makhachev does have a natural size advantage, despite Volk’s past as a rugby player. It’s the minor details that matter in this fight and while I don’t expect Makhachev to be able to take Volkanovski down and control him for long periods, I do expect takedowns to occur. While he’s working to get back up, he’s not doing any damage and that means Islam is winning and working for openings, so I think he takes the win just off his sheer size advantage. But do not be surprised if Volkanovski walks out of Perth as a double champion, because he’s one of the very best around.
PICK – Islam Makhachev via Decision

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs Vieira – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex centre in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 55, headlined by women’s bantamweight contenders Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira.

In a rather underwhelming card, there is a banger of a co-main event on display though in the welterweight division when fan favourites Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira clash in a ranked bout.

Last week at UFC Vegas 54 we went 6/11 on the night with three perfect picks, moving our total to 628/976 (64.34%) with 268 perfect picks (42.68%). You can check out our total picks chart in detail here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Omar Morales (11-2) vs Uros Medic (7-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight bout up next. Martinez started his career 10-0 before he ran into Giga Chikadze at UFC Fight Island 5. He then beat Shane Young via decision at UFC 260 before losing last time out to Jonathan Pearce at UFC 266 via submission in the second round. Medic on the other hand suffered the first defeat of his career last time out, getting submitted by Jalin Turner so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back.

Morales is a steady fighter with good boxing and kicks, and decent power in his strikes too but the durability of a bull when it comes to taking damage. Medic showed in his last bout that he’s useless off his back, but he has got tremendous power in his strikes as once again the bout didn’t go beyond the first round. We haven’t seen much of him in the cage so it’s hard to get a read, and that makes it hard to pick him here too.

Morales is very well rounded, has solid leg kicks and has only ever been hurt by Chikadze in the octagon to date. If Medic can’t get him out of there in the first round we don’t know how he holds up, so I’m opting for a Morales decision once more.
PICK – Omar Morales via Decision

Jailton Almeida (15-2) vs Parker Porter (13-6) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Big boys step up to the plate next in this one. Almeida is on a ten-fight win streak with all finishes, split evenly between knockouts and decisions. He defeated Danilo Marques via knockout in the first-round in his UFC debut last time out. Porter on the other hand has won his last three in a row, all by decision, with a steady win over Alan Baudot most recently.

Almeida is a powerhouse who looks to drag his opponents to the ground quickly and then decides whether to smash their head in with strikes and elbows or take their back and choke them out. Porter is a steady fighter, more along the traditional heavyweight lines, with decent low kicks and boxing as well as a haymaker of a right hand. This is a total mismatch of a fight though.

Porter on his back is immediately in trouble and his takedown defence is essentially non-existent, especially against someone as dynamic and talented as Almeida. Once he gets it there it’s a straight up assault, so expect a quick win for Almeida where he just pounds on him until the referee steps in.
PICK – Jailton Almeida via Knockout, Round 1

Joseph Holmes (7-2) vs Alen Amedovski (8-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An interesting middleweight bout is the featured prelim bout of the night. Holmes made his UFC debut on short notice and suffered defeat to Jamie Pickett in his last bout, while Amedovski returns to fight for the first time since getting knocked out in 17 seconds back in 2019 by John Phillips.

Holmes is a well-rounded fighter with good height and range, using his kicks well and having some great chops on the ground to score submission wins too. Amedovski has been away for three years, so he may be a completely changed fighter. But the last time he fought he was a brawler with limited fight IQ considering he stood in the pocket and slugged it out with Phillips.

With that said, it’s impossible for me to go against Holmes. He has the ability to land at will from distance, has the durability to take Amedovski’s best shots, he’s been more active and his ground game is levels above anything we’ve seen in the past from his opponent. Holmes gets him down and strangles him early for the win.
PICK – Joseph Holmes via Submission, Round 1

ufc vegas 55: holm vs vieira – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs Hill – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this week for a card that has been littered with changes on short notice.

Originally scheduled to be headlined by Rafael Dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, that fight was forced to be moved to UFC 272 due to visa issues and will now be headlined by Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill.

It’s not the greatest of cards, with the only ranked fighters scheduled to compete in the main event but there are some decent fights expected to take place.

Last week at UFC 271 we had a great night, correctly predicting 11/14 fights with seven perfect picks which takes our picks totals to 539/840 (64.17%) with 231 perfect picks (42.86%).

Lets see if we can improve that here and after starting with the early prelims and rounding up our prelims picks here, we move to the main card now.

Joaquin Buckley (13-4) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An absolute slugfest coming up in the middleweight division here. Buckley bounced back from a head-kick KO defeat to Alessio Di Chirico at UFC Fight Island 7 by KO’ing Antonio Arroyo back in September. Alhassan on the other hand snapped a three-fight losing streak in his last fight, by KO’ing Alessio Di Chirico via head-kick in just 17 seconds. MMA, eh?

Both of these fighters are powerhouses with tremendous knockout power in their hands and legs and put their opponents’ lights out. Buckley is a good wrestler, but he never uses it, instead opting to box with good head movement and keeping a good pace throughout. Alhassan is a patient striker with real one-shot power, but he tends to struggle outside of the first round and his cardio isn’t good at all. That spells problems to me.

While this fight is anyone’s to win in the first round, the longer it goes the more it suits Buckley. He has the cardio advantage and he’s shown that his power can carry through the full 15 minutes, so I expect him to drag it out a little and then secure a big knockout later in the fight.
PICK – Joaquin Buckley via Knockout, Round 2

Jim Miller (33-16) vs Nikolas Motta (12-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Legend vs prospect in this lightweight division fight. Jim Miller will extend his record as the man with the most fights in the UFC, coming in on a 2-2 run in his last four with a knockout win over Erick Gonzalez most recently. Motta on the other hand is on a three-fight win streak and makes his UFC debut in this fight following a win on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Miller is one of the best submission artists the UFC has ever seen, with great wrestling and incredible jiu-jitsu which has earned him 18 submission wins in his career. Motta on the other hand has got incredible hand speed with his boxing-heavy approach with a sprawl-and-brawl strategy usually in place for most of his fights. Miller will look to test that in order to try and land and big strike or wrap up a position on the ground, but if he can’t get it done early he could be in trouble.

Motta will likely play it relatively cautiously early on in order to allow Miller to potentially blow himself out, and then use his speed and superior striking to pile up damage in the later rounds. It could end up being a “comeback” win, but I expect Motta to never really be in too much danger and come away with a decision win.
PICK – Nikolas Motta via Decision

Parker Porter (12-6) vs Alan Baudot (8-2) – Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Heavyweights will be in Las Vegas for this fight card folks. Porter is on a two-fight win streak with decisions over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman in his most recent outings, while Baudot was KO’d by Tom Aspinall in his debut at UFC Fight Island 5 before a defeat to Rodrigo Nascimento was overturned to a no contest.

Porter is a deceptively technical striker with good movement and speed, despite being 6 foot 7 and 260lbs. Baudot hasn’t shown much at all in the UFC so far, but he has got some decent power in his striking if I had to find something. This fight is likely to stay on the feet for the entirety of the bout, with Porter to use his jab and leg kicks to chip away at his defences.

Ultimately, this fight won’t be fun and I doubt there will be a finish because neither man is particularly known for being a power puncher. Porter has the cardio to go 15 minutes and I expect he will just piece him up throughout and earn a win.
PICK – Parker Porter via Decision

Kyle Daukaus (10-2) vs Jamie Pickett (13-6) – (Catchweight/195lbs)

A very intriguing short-notice catchweight fight between these two middleweight fighters. Daukaus lost two of his first three UFC bouts before a clash of heads before he tapped out Kevin Holland saw his last fight end in a no contest at UFC Vegas 38. Pickett steps in on short-notice on a two-fight win streak, with a decision against Joseph Holmes at UFC Vegas 46 last month.

Daukaus is a wrestler who looks to use his looping strikes to set up takedowns and then control his opponents on the ground for victories. Pickett on the other hand is a solid kickboxer with good Muay Thai skills and excellent power in his striking. That said, Pickett has found himself wrestling a lot since joining the UFC and if he does that here then he is likely to struggle to claim a victory.

Pickett is the more technical striker of the two, but Daukaus is the more powerful of the two and is certainly the one who can dictate where this fight takes place. Add in a five-year age gap too, I expect Daukaus to be able to get this fight to the ground and eventually take the back to secure a rear-naked choke with his relentlessness.
PICK – Kyle Daukaus via Submission, Round 2

Johnny Walker (18-6) vs Jamahal Hill (9-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A banger at light heavyweight in the main event, where someone is likely to go to sleep. Walker was beaten in his last fight by Thiago Santos in a very cagey fight back at UFC Vegas 38, making it three defeats in his last four. Hill on thje other hand bounced back from the first defeat of his career to Paul Craig at UFC 263 by knocking out Jimmy Crute in just 38 seconds last time out at UFC Vegas 44 in December.

Both of these fighters are hugely explosive knockout artists with legitimate one-punch power in their hands. Walker is incredibly unorthodox with the way he strikes, and he uses his kicks well from the outside. Hill however is a decent wrestler with lightning fast strikes with either hand and legitimate one-punch power. This is a fight that is similar to the Santos and Walker bout, but Hill is far more unlikely to be hesitant when it comes to pull the trigger.

Hill will walk forward and cut the cage off to Walker, which narrows down his opportunities to be wild with his attacks and opens up Hill’s window to land a big strike. It may take a round to warm-up, but I don’t think we’ll need the extra ten minutes this bout has been given a Hill earns a big knockout win.
PICK – Jamahal Hill via Knockout, Round 2

ufc vegas 48: walker vs hill – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 34: Cannonier vs Gastelum – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns after a two week break with two middleweights battling to get back into contention at the top of the rankings as Jared Cannonier takes on Kelvin Gastelum.

Originally supposed to be Paulo Costa, Gastelum stepped in to take over this bout and knows that a win for him can get him back in the conversation for a future title shot while Cannonier knows he’s just two big wins away from a title shot in all likelihood.

In a 12 fight card, it’s a card with a few sleeper fights and a killer main event so lets see how we do with our picks.

Last time out at UFC 265 we went 9/13 with four perfect picks to move to 383/600 (63.83%) with 169 perfect picks (44.13%). We’ll look to improve that here and after starting with the early prelims here and the rest of the prelim picks, here are the main card picks for the night.

Alexandre Pantoja (23-5) vs Brandon Royval (12-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An absolute banger at flyweight and my pick for fight of the night in this one. Pantoja is tipped for future title aspirations and is 2-2 in his last four, losing to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov while beating Matt Schnell and Manel Kape most recently at UFC Vegas 18. Royval was on a tear in the UFC before losing his last fight to Brandon Moreno at UFC 255 when he dislocated his shoulder and got TKO’d.

Pantoja is a phenomenal striker, with brilliant combinations, kicks and hand speed at 125lbs. Royval is a very active striker too, with brilliant scrambles and hand speed himself. This is a fight that is undoubtedly between two top contenders and could go either way. Royval is a solid grappler too, with really good submissions all around the mat and eight submission wins in his career.

Unfortunately for Royval though, Pantoja has fantastic leg kicks and takedown defence as well as scary power for the division and I think overall he will be able to use his experience to earn a very entertaining win.
PICK – Alexandre Pantoja via Decision

Vinc Pichel (13-2) vs Austin Hubbard (13-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An intriguing lightweight fight between a veteran and a newcomer in this one. Piche is 38-years-old and on a two-fight win streak, beating Roosevelt Roberts and then Jim Miller at UFC 252 in his last fight. Hubbard on the other hand is 29 and has alternated wins and losses in his last six, beating Dakota Bush last time out via decision.

Pichel has good stand up and good wrestling, but against the specialists in those departments he struggles. Physically he’s strong and he has decent cardio, but he doesn’t really excel in any level in particular. Hubbard on the other hand is a fighter who’s greatest attribute is his cardio, with good knees and strikes from range.

Hubbard is a good defensive wrestler and because of his cardio and attacks up the middle, Pichel may struggle to get his grappling game going and on the feet Hubbard has him beat. The longer the fight goes with Hubbard not on his back, the further he is able to pull away and earn a decision win.
PICK – Austin Hubbard via Decision

Trevin Jones (13-6) vs Saidyokub Kakhromonov (8-2) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A banger at bantamweight as Jones takes on the very short notice replacement Kakhromonov. ‘5 Star’ has won his last four in a row by finish, but his UFC debut against Timur Valiev at UFC Vegas 7 was overturned after a positive marijuana test. He then stopped Mario Bautista via knockout at UFC 259. Kakhromonov has won his last two, KO’ing Askar Askar in 30 seconds before a KO over Tycen Lynn and makes his UFC debut on just four days’ notice.

Jones is a powerful striker with genuine knockout power but also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while Kakhromonov is a fantastic striker with good kicks and good enough wrestling to score a takedown over a Nurmagomedov relative. In a full camp, this would be an incredible fight but with Kakhromonov taking the fight on just four days notice this seems like a jump too far.

This is likely to be one of the best fights on the card but with both at a high level, but the lack of preparation time for Kakhromonov means I can’t go against Jones in this one. Remember the Kakhromonov name though.
PICK – Trevin Jones via Decision

Parker Porter (11-6) vs Chase Sherman (15-7) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

A heavyweight banger as the impressive Sherman takes on Porter and looks to get back to winning ways. Porter is 1-1 in his last two fights, losing to Chris Daukaus before earning a decision over Josh Parisian last time out. Sherman on the other hand was on a four-fight win streak before stepping into the cage with former champ Andrei Arlovski in April where he was beaten by decision.

Porter is a typical heavyweight, who uses jabs and a big overhand to earn most of his victories but when that doesn’t work he looks low quality and poor. Sherman has tried to evolve his game more, throwing some leg kicks and good volume but his knockout power is excellent. He has 14 wins via knockout and has some decent footwork for a heavyweight.

Sherman will come out, bide his time, avoid the big strikes with good footwork and eventually land his big right hand to get back on the winning trail in this one.
PICK – Chase Sherman via Knockout, Round 1

Clay Guida (36-17) vs Mark O Madsen (10-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A fun lightweight fight is the co-main event of the night as veteran Clay Guida takes on undefeated Mark Madsen. Guida is 1-2 in his last three but beat Michael Johnson last time out at UFC Vegas 18 and will take on the Olympic silver medalist Madsen who hasn’t fought since UFC 248 pre-COVID.

Both these guys are wrestle heavy fighters, but the Olympic level wrestler is obviously the better of the two when it comes to that section of a fight. Guida is aggressive and storms forward constantly, throwing good strikes with not much power that Madsen will have to try and avoid. One advantage that Guida has though is his cardio. Despite being 364 years old, Guida never tires and Madsen has shown some cardio problems in the past.

With that said though, Madsen is a good enough wrestler that in both of their plan A’s he should be able to win at least two rounds to earn a decision win.
PICK – Mark O. Madsen via Decision

Jared Cannonier (13-5) vs Kelvin Gastelum (17-7) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A contender fight between the number three and number nine ranked middleweights headlines this card. Cannonier was on a three-fight finish streak before coming up against Robert Whittaker at UFC 254 where he was outclassed in his last fight. Gastelum on the other hand lost three-in-a-row before earning a good win over Ian Heinisch at UFC 258 before suffering his own defeat to Whittaker in April.

Cannonier is a powerhouse with incredible one-punch knockout power and some violent leg kicks to go with it, while Gastelum is a solid boxer with good wrestling and a powerful left hand of his own to go with a granite chin. Cannonier has got scary power though and is capable of ending any fight at any moment and Gastelum isn’t exactly the most evasive when it comes to punches.

Gastelum has the option of using his wrestling to win rounds but Cannonier’s takedown defence is pretty good at 185lbs. He’s never been knocked out in his career and I think he has the better skillset to win rounds, so I’m going for an upset in the main event and Gastelum to earn a decision win.
PICK – Kelvin Gastelum via Decision

ufc vegas 34: cannonier vs gastelum – prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs Lewis – Main Card Predictions

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The heavyweight scene steps to the front of the queue for attention as Curtis Blaydes gets the fight he called for against Derrick Lewis.

The main event is a chance for both men to push towards the front of the queue for a title shot, with both fighters on impressive win streaks.

In the co-main, Anthony Smith looks to get back to winning ways when he takes on Devin Clark in the light-heavyweight division on a relatively below par card.

Last weekend we had an okay showing, with 7/12 correct picks but only two correct picks for the night. This moved our overall picks up to 175/264 (66.29%) with 80 perfect picks (45.71%) since starting our picks in June.

With eleven fights on the card scheduled, lets see what we can rustle up starting with the prelims here.

MAIN CARD

Bill Algeo (13-5) vs Spike Carlyle (9-2) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A four fight win streak culminated in Spike Carlyle making it into Dana White’s Contender Series, where he scored an 85 second knockout win as an underdog to get into the UFC. His debut wasn’t as successful though, as he was beaten by Billy Quarantillo back in May. Algeo lost his Contender Series fight before going away and winning again on the regional scene to get into the UFC. He also lost his debut on just 16 days’ notice, in a decision loss to Ricardo Lamas back in August. Carlyle is a great wrestler with excellent top control while Algeo is a striker who gives up takedowns like his life depends on it. While the fight is on the feet, Algeo will have the advantage but he doesn’t have the power to stop Carlyle or the ability to keep the takedowns away and this could get nasty on the ground.
PICK – Spike Carlyle via Knockout, Round 2

Miguel Baeza (9-0) vs Takashi Sato (16-3) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

After a victorious appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, Miguel Baeza has seen his hype levels rise with two stoppage wins against Hector Aldana and then Matt Brown back in May. Takashi Sato KO’d Ben Saunders in his debut back in 2019 but was stopped by Belal Muhammad in September of the same year. He bounced back from that with a 48-second KO win over Jason Witt in June. Both men are heavy hitters with powerful striking, and Baeza loves a chopping leg kick. I can’t imagine this one lasts very long and for me Baeza has the power advantage. That said, he got hit a lot against Matt Brown and if Sato hits him with those shots it could be lights out. With more experience at the top level, Sato gets it done as the underdog.
PICK – Takashi Sato via Knockout, Round 1

Josh Parisian (13-3) vs Parker Porter (10-6) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

A UFC debut for Josh Parisian as the Conteder Series graduate looks to add to his impressive tally of 12 finishes from 13 wins. Parker Porter lost his UFC debut to Chris Daukaus back in August when he was knocked out in the first round, ending a 4-1 run of fights. Parisian is a super strong striker, with good spinning techniques and great power while Porter is your bog standard heavyweight who plants his feet and swings for the fences. Porter is fairly slow and Parisian should be able to walk him down and drop him early for a big knockout win on his debut.
PICK – Josh Parisian via Knockout, Round 1

Anthony Smith (33-16) vs Devin Clark (12-4) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

After losing in his UFC title shot to Jon Jones, Anthony Smith has since gone 1-2 after an impressive submission win against Alexander Gustafsson before being dominated by Glover Teixeira and Alexander Rakic. Devin Clark on the other hand has won three of his last four fights, all by decision including a dominant performance against Alonzo Menifield. Smith struggled with the grappling of Rakic, who is known for his striking more than anything. The size difference troubled Smith greatly and Clark will have a similar advantage. He loves a good clinch battle and should have physical strength advantage. Smith is by far the better striker and has power, but after recent performances it’s hard to think Smith will do well against this style of fight.
PICK – Devin Clark via Decision

Curtis Blaydes (14-2) vs Derrick Lewis (24-7) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)*

The ultimate takedown vs stand up battle. Blaydes has the record for most takedowns in heavyweight history, while Lewis has the record for the most knockout wins in heavyweight history. Blaydes is currently on a four-fight win streak, including his most recent dominant decision against Alexander Volkov. Lewis is on a three-fight win streak, including his knockout of Aleksei Oleinik. That Oleinik fight doesn’t bode well for Lewis though. He was taken down and dominated on the ground by the much smaller man and only got back to his feet when the bell went to end the first round. Blaydes will take this to the ground and look to blast him out of there from top position. If Lewis somehow survives the first round, he will need a knockout just like against Oleinik but Blaydes is elite and will take it back to the ground for a dominant win.
PICK – Curtis Blaydes via Knockout, Round 1

*The UFC Vegas 15 main event has been cancelled after Curtis Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19.*

ufc vegas 15: blaydes vs lewis – prelims predictions