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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns to Perth, Australia for one of the biggest main event bouts in history as Alexander Volkanovski moves up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev for the title.

The undisputed featherweight champion is currently ranked as the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, while Makhachev is ranked at number two, making this the first time the top two fighters in the company have gone head to head.

We’ll also see an interim featherweight champion crowned in Volkanovski’s absence from the 145-pound division, as Yair Rodriguez takes on Josh Emmett in an exciting fight too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 68 we went 6/10 with three perfect picks (we don’t count draws) to move to 829/1287 (64.41%) with 340 perfect picks (41.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims section of the card, then moving on to the rest of the prelims here, we finish up with our main card picks.

Jimmy Crute (12-3) vs Alonzo Menifield (13-3) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

A very fun light heavyweight bout opens up the main card next. Crute has lost his last two after suffering a leg injury against Anthony Smith, before being KO’d cold by the new champion Jamahal Hill most recently in just 48 seconds. Menifield has won his last two alternatively, KO’ing both Askar Mozharov and Misha Cirkunov in the first round.

Crute is a tidy boxer, but it’s his excellent wrestling and incredibly top pressure that saw him break onto the scene in the UFC as a top prospect. Menifield is a striker with an absolute weapon of a right hand, but his overall skillset isn’t the most well-rounded and that’s a problem here. Crute’s chin has obviously shown that it can be cracked, and Menifield has the power to dent it further.

However Crute will know he has a clear route to victory in the grappling, and the likelihood is that he will need just one takedown per round to get it there and keep it there. Expect him to avoid the early hammer blow and take Menifield down early, before controlling for 15 minutes for a wide decision win.
PICK – Jimmy Crute via Decision

Justin Tafa (5-3) vs Parker Porter (13-7) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Heavyweights up next in a fight that doesn’t really belong on the main card of a pay-per-view if we’re being honest. Tafa has lost two of his last three, but earned a KO win over Harry Hunsucker last time out back in December 2021. Porter on the other hand was on a three-fight win streak with decisions over Josh Parisian, Chase Sherman and Alan Baudot before running into Jailton Almeida most recently and getting choked out in the first round.

Tafa is just a brawler, stepping forward and throwing bombs until he hits something and it drops. He’s got very good takedown defence so far throughout his career too, with a 100% defence rate. Porter is a bog-standard heavyweight who throws the odd strike with power and has a few leg kicks in his game too. He is an okay wrestler with good top control, and that’s probably where he’ll look to take this fight.

The only reason for this fight to be on the main card is because the UFC wants Tafa to land an explosive strike that folds Porter up and gets the crowd absolutely electrified. The chances are they’ll get it, but if they don’t this could be the longest 15 minutes of the night.
PICK – Justin Tafa via Knockout, Round 1

Jack Della Maddalena (13-2) vs Randy Brown (16-4) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

One of the best welterweight fights of the year so far between absolute stars. Maddalena is undefeated since losing his first two professional bouts, going 3-0 in the UFC with KO wins over Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts. Brown is on a four-fight win streak having submitted ‘Cowboy’ Alex Oliveira with a standing rear-naked choke, before earning decisions over Jared Gooden, Khaos Williams and Francisco Trinaldo most recently.

Maddalena is a phenomenal striker, with excellent power and boxing combinations as well as great cardio to keep up his all-action style throughout 15 minutes. Brown is an explosive striker with great power himself, but he’s also a very talented grappler and solid wrestler too. That wrestling could be key in this fight, because on the feet I probably edge it slightly in the Australian’s favour.

On the mat Brown is definitely the better grappler, but he’s not someone who uses the wrestling as his primary game plan much. If he chooses to do that, he could find success but it could also find him being more tired later in the fight than usual. If they go blow for blow on the feet then it’s a coin toss but with Maddalena in his own back yard and with all the hype and momentum behind him, I think he can get it done in a brilliant fight.
PICk – Jack Della Maddalena via Decision

Yair Rodriguez (15-3) vs Josh Emmett (18-2) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real sleeper of a fight in the co-main event as the interim featherweight title is on the line. Rodriguez ran Max Holloway really close back in November 2021, before beating Brian Ortega due to a shoulder injury to earn this shot. Emmett on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak, earning his title shot with a split decision win over Calvin Kattar last time out.

Rodriguez is one of the greatest strikers in the UFC, with an incredible array of kicks and some great power in his hands as well as incredibly explosive elbows and knees. He’s also got some more than decent wrestling defence to go with those kicks, meaning he can always use them. Emmett has moved away from his strong wrestling base in this win streak, landing great volume and power with his striking and using his cardio as a weapon. Stylistically this is a very interesting fight, because Emmett’s wrestling is a game changer but isn’t what got him to the dance.

In a striking battle I have no doubts that Rodriguez will win with ease and potentially get the finish with his counter striking and kicks. If Emmett wrestles though he has the chance to control the fight on the mat. For me however, Yair is good enough in scrambles to get back to his feet and he can do so much damage on the feet with his variety of striking that it would be a big shock to me if Yair didn’t leave Australia with the belt.
PICK – Yair Rodriguez via Decision

Islam Makhachev (23-1) vs Alexander Volkanovski (25-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

The best fight the UFC can make today takes place in the main event at UFC 284 as lightweight champion Islam Makhachev makes his first defence against current featherweight champion and number one ranked pound-for-pound fighter Alex Volkanovski. Makhachev is on an 11-fight win streak, winning the belt by submitting Charles Oliveira back at UFC 280 most recently. Volkanovski is on a 22-fight win streak, including 12-0 in the UFC, with a third win over Max Holloway last time out at UFC 276.

Makhachev is the best wrestler in the UFC pound-for-pound, with incredible trips and technique. But his striking abilities are largely overlooked and they have improved greatly in recent years, as he showed when he dropped Oliveira in their bout. Volkanovski is arguably the most well-rounded fighter in the company right now, with brilliant striking and boxing techniques to go with solid wrestling defence and offense and great movement. Stylistically this fight is insane, because Volkanovski is so good defensively and so powerful with insane heart some of the best cardio around.

But Makhachev does have a natural size advantage, despite Volk’s past as a rugby player. It’s the minor details that matter in this fight and while I don’t expect Makhachev to be able to take Volkanovski down and control him for long periods, I do expect takedowns to occur. While he’s working to get back up, he’s not doing any damage and that means Islam is winning and working for openings, so I think he takes the win just off his sheer size advantage. But do not be surprised if Volkanovski walks out of Perth as a double champion, because he’s one of the very best around.
PICK – Islam Makhachev via Decision

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to Perth, Australia for one of the biggest main event bouts in history as Alexander Volkanovski moves up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev for the title.

The undisputed featherweight champion is currently ranked as the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, while Makhachev is ranked at number two, making this the first time the top two fighters in the company have gone head to head.

We’ll also see an interim featherweight champion crowned in Volkanovski’s absence from the 145-pound division, as Yair Rodriguez takes on Josh Emmett in an exciting fight too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 68 we went 6/10 with three perfect picks (we don’t count draws) to move to 829/1287 (64.41%) with 340 perfect picks (41.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims section of the card, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Jamie Mullarkey (15-5) vs Francisco Prado (11-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Absolute banger in the lightweight division up next. Mullarkey has won three of his last four, knocking out Khama Worthy and Devonte Smith, before defeat to Jalin Turner. He claimed a split decision win over Michael Johnson last time out in a razor close bout. Prado is an Argentine prospect who has finished all 11 of his fights via finish, splitting them with five knockouts and six submissions.

Both of these fighters are eerily similar in style, with incredible aggression to go with their smothering grappling and excellent power in their striking. They have also got some incredible toughness and cardio, but the difference between the two that will be key is that Mullarkey has done it at a far higher level in his career so far.

Prado will surely make it in the UFC eventually and his fan-friendly style will also win plenty of love, but in this one against the home favourite and more experienced fighter it’s a tough task. Mullarkey will give more than he takes and eventually take over before getting a late finish in an absolute war.
PICK – Jamie Mullarkey via Knockout, Round 3

Shannon Ross (13-6) vs Kleydson Rodrigues (7-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight fight next up. Ross has actually lost two of his last three, including being KO’d in his last outing on the Contender Series by Vinicius Salvador back in August. Rodrigues on the other hand saw a six-fight win streak snapped by CJ Vergara last time out in his UFC debut at UFC 274 via split decision.

Ross is a fighter with an ability to do a bit of everything, but he has got a glaring problem that will stop him from making it too far in the UFC and that’s the fact that his chin is essentially non-existent. He gets dropped with worrying regularity, and Rodrigues comes into the fight as an excellent striker and decent grappler too. He’s by far the better fighter of the two and has the advantage pretty much everywhere.

Expect Rodrigues to use his jab and low kicks to beat Ross up a bit, and eventually do enough damage with a knockdown and flurry for the referee to step in and end it.
PICK – Kleydson Rodrigues via Knockout, Round 2

Josh Culibao (10-1-1) vs Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Absolute banger in the featherweight division up next. Culibao has won his last two in a row, defeating Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Seung Woo Choi via decision. Baghdasaryan is undefeated since losing his professional debut back in 2014, winning each of his two UFC bouts against Collin Angling and most recently Bruno Souza back at UFC 268 in November 2021.

Culibao is a fine striker with great boxing and kicks, while he also has some decent wrestling and trips in his back pocket too. “The Gun” alternatively is almost exclusively a striker, with his kickboxing world renowned and having great power to go with his timing and footwork. Baghdasaryan is more of a counter striker than a pressure fighter, and that could suit him against Culibao who likes to push forward and force opponents backwards.

In the striking it’s Baghdasaryan who has the advantage in my opinion, but Culibao’s ability to mix it up more gives him an added avenue to victory. With that said, if he can’t get him down then that should give Baghdasaryan the chance to really pick him apart as the fight goes on. Culibao is also someone who can be sluggish if he’s not really on it on the night, so I’m going to go with Melsik to edge out a close win on the cards.
PICK – Melsik Baghdasaryan via Decision

Tyson Pedro (9-3) vs Modestas Bukauskas (13-5) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

Big boys up next in the featured prelim bout of the night. Super popular Pedro is on a two-fight win streak since his return after a near four-year layoff, knocking out Isaac Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker in the first round. Bukauskas returns to the UFC after losing his first three fights and being released, before winning two in a row after his return to Cage Warriors.

Pedro is an absolute powerhouse with fantastic striking ability, including some violent leg kicks too. Bukauskas is a strong fighter too with powerful striking and a black belt in karate, while he also has some decent grappling too. His problem in the UFC is that his chin just couldn’t stand up to the power, and Pedro is arguably the biggest hitter he’s come up against.

With just 2.5 weeks notice and the skillset to really end this quickly, Pedro is the man. His kicking game is enough to keep distance, he has the power to sleep Bukauskas and he’s a great grappler too. Bukauskas’ tendency to back up to the cage doesn’t bode well either, so Pedro should get the crowd up on their feet in this one.
PICK – Tyson Pedro via Knockout, Round 2

ufc 284: makhachev vs volkanovski – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 284: Makhachev vs Volkanovski – Early prelims predictions

1 Comment

The UFC returns to Perth, Australia for one of the biggest main event bouts in history as Alexander Volkanovski moves up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev for the title.

The undisputed featherweight champion is currently ranked as the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, while Makhachev is ranked at number two, making this the first time the top two fighters in the company have gone head to head.

We’ll also see an interim featherweight champion crowned in Volkanovski’s absence from the 145-pound division, as Yair Rodriguez takes on Josh Emmett in an exciting fight too.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 68 we went 6/10 with three perfect picks (we don’t count draws) to move to 829/1287 (64.41%) with 340 perfect picks (41.01%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims section of the card.

Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) vs Elves Brenner (13-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Fun lightweight scrap to open up this card. Tukhugov suffered defeat to Hakeem Dawodu back at UFC 253 before bouncing back with a win over Ricardo Ramos at UFC 267 last time out, missing out all of 2022. Brenner makes his UFC debut on a two-fight win streak, with both coming via first-round armbar submission.

Tukhugov is an excellent wrestler with a very heavy right hand in his arsenal too, while also having some nice low kicks and takedown defence. Brenner is a fast-starter, with his usual approach being to wrestle his opponent and then work ground and pound while looking for a submission. The problem here is that Tukhugov looks to be the far better grappler of the two, and he’s the more powerful and technical striker too.

When you add all of that to the fact that Brenner also took the fight on about a month’s notice, replacing Joel Alvarez, then it all suggests Tukhugov should win. The grappling is likely to be a non-starter for both guys because it’s where their main strengths are, so Tukhugov’s power should shine through with an early KO.
PICK – Zubaira Tukhugov via Knockout, Round 1

Shane Young (13-6) vs Blake Bilder (7-0-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Featherweights up next in another fun scrap. Young has lost his last two in the UFC, with his last fight coming against Omar Morales back at UFC 260 in March 2021. Bilder on the other hand makes his UFC debut after earning a contract on the Contender Series back in August with a first-round submission win over Alex Morgan.

Young is an aggressive striker on the feet with good power and slick movement, but a tendency to struggle against strong grapplers. Bilder is a super aggressive fighter who has got a solid ground game, but is fragile on the feet and hasn’t got the wrestling chops to get the fight to the mat where he wants it often enough. Bilder’s aggression is likely to be a big problem here, because Young is the best fighter he’s ever fought and has got the great power to put him out.

With that said though, if he can get the fight to the mat he will have a great chance with his excellent skill being exactly what Young struggles with. However to get it there he’ll have to walk through fire, and Young should have enough about him to finish him early before being dragged into danger.
PICK – Shane Young via Knockout, Round 2

Loma Lookboonmee (7-3) vs Elise Reed (6-2) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Strawweight starlets up next in an interesting fight. Lookboonmee bounced back from defeat to Lupita Godinez with a decision win over Denise Gomes most recently, while Reed was able to bounce back from defeat to Sam Hughes by beating Melissa Martinez at UFC 279 last time out.

Lookboonmee is a fantastic wrestler, but she also has got excellent Muay-Thai credentials that make her nasty in tight with her striking and clinch work. Reed is a tidy kickboxer with solid striking skills, and an ability to use her length and kicks better than a lot of female fighters in this division. This fight goes one of two ways, and it seems it relies on how brave Lookboonmee wants to be when it comes to closing distance.

Reed has the ability and skill to keep Lookboonmee away from her with kicks and range striking, which all but nullifies the clinch game of her opponent. But if Lookboonmee looks to use her wrestling aggressively, she should be able to get the takedown and dominate on the mat. She has to be careful about eating a shot or two on her entries, but I expect with such a clear advantage in this realm she should be able to land the takedowns and take rounds for the win.
PICK – Loma Lookboonmee via Decision

Jack Jenkins (10-2) vs Don Shainis (12-4) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A banger at featherweight up next. Jenkins comes into the UFC on a seven-fight win streak, with his most recent coming via a third-round knockout on the Contender Series against Freddy Linares. Shainis arrived in the UFC on a five-fight win streak, but suffered a first-round submission defeat to Sodiq Yusuff on his debut in just 30 seconds last time out.

Jenkins is a very complete fighter, with excellent boxing and some really good wrestling to go with his proven cardio skills and lovely low kicks. Shainis is a similar fighter, but seemingly on a slightly lower level right now with less technique but plenty of heart to make this a really interesting fight to predict. Shainis won’t want to go toe-to-toe without making it clean, and he has the ability to rush Jenkins and take him off his rhythm early.

If he does that then there is every chance he can cause an upset, but the likelihood is that he won’t be able to. Jenkins is faster, stronger, the better striker, the better wrestler and his gas tank means he’s highly unlikely to gas out in a 15 minute fight. He’ll also have the home crowd behind him, so expect a show from “Phar” to get the win and make a statement.
PICK – Jack Jenkins via Knockout, Round 1