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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the T-Mobile Arena for the return of the GOAT, as Jon Jones finally makes the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight to compete for the title against Ciryl Gane.

Jones is the consensus GOAT in MMA, but hasn’t fought in three years. He’ll take on Gane in the main event at heavyweight to crown the new undisputed champion, after Francis Ngannou left the company while still holding the belt.

In the co-main event we’ll also see Valentina Shevchenko defend her flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso, while household names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cody Garbrandt, Bo Nickal and Ian Garry also feature on the card.

Last time we predicted a whole card was UFC 284, and we went 8/12 on the night with two perfect picks (not including the draw) to move to 837/1299 (64.43%) with 342 perfect picks (40.86%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, and then moving on to the rest of the prelims on the card, we finish up with our main card picks here.

Bo Nickal (3-0) vs Jamie Pickett (13-8) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A hugely anticipated UFC debut up next. Nickal earned himself a UFC contract with two first-round finishes on the Contender Series, and is a three-time All-American wrestler and former Olympic hopeful. Pickett has lost his last two in a row, suffering a submission defeat to Kyle Daukaus before getting KO’d by Denis Tiuliulin at UFC 279.

Nickal is arguably the best wrestler in the UFC now that he’s got a contract, but he’s also a very good striker with excellent kicks and some very fluid jiu-jitsu skills too. Pickett is a volume striker with okay power and good cardio, but his career trajectory is on the way down and the UFC knows it. Wrestling is a big problem for Pickett, and against someone as good as Nickal he’s in trouble.

This seems like a party for the UFC to introduce the world to Nickal. Expect him to come out really aggressively in the first round, score a takedown and work for a finish to really arrive in the organisation.
PICK – Bo Nickal via Submission, Round 1

Mateusz Gamrot (21-2) vs Jalin Turner (13-5) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Absolute banger in the lightweight division up next that was put together on short notice. Gamrot steps in for Dan Hooker who broke his hand in training, and looks to bounce back from defeat to Beneil Dariush most recently. Turner on the other hand is on a five-fight win streak, with two KO’s and three submissions in that run including a 45 second guillotine against Brad Riddell most recently.

Gamrot is a fantastic wrestler with excellent grappling skills and decent power in his hands, but it’s wrestling that is always at the forefront of his mind. Turner alternatively is a really well-rounded fighter with great power in his hands and great length to his striking, but he also has good wrestling and is trying to improve his grappling skills. This is surely too big a test for him to try and check his grappling skills.

“Gamer” has got cardio for days and has the exact style of fighting that Turner will hate coming up against. “The Tarantula” will look to use his size to stay out of grappling exchanges and use those straight punches to land damage, but Gamrot is so experienced at this level that I expect him to find a way to get this fight to the ground and dominate on the mat to claim a decision win.
PICK – Mateusz Gamrot via Decision

Geoff Neal (15-4) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

Hugely intriguing fight at welterweight up next. Neal is on a two-fight win streak coming into this one, having edged out Santiago Ponzinibbio in a split decision and then KO’ing Vicente Luque in a career-best performance. Rakhmonov is undefeated and making waves, with a 100% finish rate evenly split between KO’s and subs. He dominated Neil Magny most recently, submitting him with a guillotine in round 2.

Neal is a powerful boxer with good volume and excellent cardio too, as well as some decent wrestling defence for the most part. Rakhmonov is one of the most complete fighters in the MMA, with amazing wrestling and sharp, accurate and powerful striking to go with it. Rakhmonov has dominated everyone, winning every round in his career and seems able to switch up his fight style depending on his opponent.

If they go toe-to-toe on the feet, then Neal has a chance because of his power. But history tells you that when Rakhmonov comes up against a striker, he’s happy to wrestle. When you consider that Magny dominated Neal with wrestling and Rakhmonov dominated Magny, there is a clear path to victory there and I expect him to find another choke midway through the fight to keep this amazing record going.
PICK – Shavkat Rakhmonov via Submission, Round 2

Valentina Shevchenko (23-3) vs Alex Grasso (15-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Women’s flyweight title fight up next. Shevchenko is one of the best women’s MMA fighters of all time, and is currently on a nine-fight win streak although her most recent performance against Taila Santos was razor close and many believed that she lost. Grasso on the other hand is on a four-fight win streak, with a decision over Viviane Araujo most recently earning her this shot.

Shevchenko is the most well-rounded women’s fighter ever. She has got elite striking, elite wrestling, elite cardio and nasty submission skills too. Grasso is a good boxer with good volume, but her wrestling isn’t great and her takedown defence is a big problem in this match up. Shevchenko has the edge everywhere, and this fight is a bit of a mismatch.

Expect “Bullet” to out-strike her on the feet before switching to her grappling mode, getting Grasso on her back before looking for that crucifix position that she loves to get another stoppage win with elbows.
PICK – Valentina Shevchenko via Knockout, Round 3

Jon Jones (26-1) vs Ciryl Gane (11-1) – (Heavyweight/220-265lbs)

Without a doubt the most highly anticipated heavyweight fight that could be put together right now. Jones is undefeated (his only pro loss came via a ridiculous DQ) and is the consensus greatest of all-time, but he hasn’t fought for over three years since beating Dominick Reyes pre-pandemic. Gane bounced back from his title fight loss to Francia Ngannou by knocking out Tai Tuivasa most recently at UFC Paris.

Jones is capable of doing everything, with fantastic striking and power to go with world-class wrestling, great jiu-jitsu and the best fight IQ maybe ever. Gane is a new generation of heavyweight, with fantastic footwork and amazing speed in his striking to go with brutal knockout power. He does have an achilles heel though, and that’s his wrestling defence. He will have a natural size difference on Jones though, and he must use that.

But “Bones” is the greatest of all-time for a reason. Expect him to start slowly and download all the data he needs, just like normal, before blasting in for a takedown and dominating Gane on the mat as we saw Ngannou do. We don’t know how Jones’ speed and endurance will hold up with an extra 50lbs of weight, so Gane could well make him pay, but I expect Jones to get the job done and cement himself as the greatest of all-time.
PICK – Jon Jones via Knockout, Round 3

ufc 285: jones vs gane – prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the T-Mobile Arena for the return of the GOAT, as Jon Jones finally makes the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight to compete for the title against Ciryl Gane.

Jones is the consensus GOAT in MMA, but hasn’t fought in three years. He’ll take on Gane in the main event at heavyweight to crown the new undisputed champion, after Francis Ngannou left the company while still holding the belt.

In the co-main event we’ll also see Valentina Shevchenko defend her flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso, while household names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cody Garbrandt, Bo Nickal and Ian Garry also feature on the card.

Last time we predicted a whole card was UFC 284, and we went 8/12 on the night with two perfect picks (not including the draw) to move to 837/1299 (64.43%) with 342 perfect picks (40.86%). You can see our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we now move on to the rest of the prelims on the card.

Julian Marquez (9-3) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Fun middleweight scrap up next. Marquez has gone 2-2 in his last four, submitting Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvey, while dropping a decision to Alessio Di Chirico and Gregory Rodrigues. Barriault on the other hand is also 2-2 in his last four, alternating wins and losses respectively against Dalcha Lungiambula, Chidi Njokuani, Jordan Wright and Anthony Hernandez.

Marquez is a speedy striker with good power, and he has also got some sneaky submission skills from the mat with a propensity to go deep into fights and steal results. Barriault is a super powerful striker, with great physicality and a really good clinch game. This is going to be a war of attrition, with both guys to get hit several times and the winner is whoever can come through it best.

I lean towards Barriault for that. He’s the better striker on the feet, and Barriault is a decent defensive wrestler too. Marquez struggles with his defence a lot of the time on the feet, and the way he got knocked out by Rodrigues last time out means he could well not be the same fighter anymore. Barriault should do enough across a 15-minute striking battle to get the nod on the cards.
PICK – Marc-Andre Barriault via Decision

Viviane Araujo (11-4) vs Amanda Ribas (10-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Two contenders in the flyweight division go up next. Araujo has won three of her last five, but was beaten by Alexa Grasso most recently which essentially cost her a title shot on this card. Ribas on the other hand is in the same vein of form, but suffered a split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian most recently back in May 2022.

Araujo is a fearsome striker with excellent boxing and some really stout takedown defence. Her biggest issue has always been her cardio problems, but going all five rounds with Grasso last time out showed that may have been sorted. Ribas is a nasty jiu-jitsu practitioner, but her striking defence is horrible and her durability is more than questionable.

If Ribas is able to get a takedown, then it will be her fight to lose. But Araujo’s got the takedown defence to stuff the first few attempts and make Ribas work for it. While she does that, she should be able to land some big strikes on the feet, and that could potentially set up a short night at the office, although with her last seven fights going the distance I expect this one will too.
PICK – Viviane Araujo via Decision

Derek Brunson (23-8) vs Dricus Du Plessis (18-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A huge middleweight fight up next that could potentially set up the next title challenger for later this year. Brunson was on a five-fight win streak and set for a title shot before he ran into Jared Cannonier and got elbowed into oblivion. This is his first fight in over a year. Du Plessis on the other hand is currently on a six-fight win streak including being unbeaten in the UFC, with a submission win over Darren Till most recently back at UFC 282 in December.

Brunson is a wrestler, who uses his grappling to control opponents on the mat and rain down ground and pound strikes to claim victories. Du Plessis is an all-action fighter with a really wild style. He’s a powerful striker with good speed and solid low kicks, but he’s also a pretty good wrestler too and has got ten career wins by submission. Brunson’s wrestling is usually what separates him from his opponents, but Du Plessis is a solid grappler and has a big speed and physicality advantage.

Du Plessis is likely to push the pace hard in the early exchanges, making Brunson work hard for any successes and that will no doubt have an effect on his cardio. I expect the South African to make a statement once again and claim a violent finish to put himself into the title picture for 2023.
PICK – Dricus Du Plessis via Knockout, Round 2

Cody Garbrandt (12-5) vs Trevin Jones (13-9) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Slugfest at bantamweight is the featured prelim bout on this card. Garbrandt has lost five of his last six fights, with four of them coming via knockout including his most recent defeat to Kai Kara France down at flyweight in December 2021. Jones alternatively has lost his last three in a row, dropping a decision to Raoni Barcelos most recently in October 2022.

Garbrandt is a former world champion whose career has just fallen off a cliff. He’s a brilliant boxer with amazing power in his left hand, but he often lets his ego take control and leaves his chin up in the air leading to him getting put out. Jones is a tidy grappler with strong wrestling and good power in his hands, and with a four-inch reach advantage he will feel he can land big shots first and more violently.

“No Love” is in a must-win situation, but so is Jones. Garbrandt will feel that he has the power to knock anyone out, but Jones is a very durable fighter and the grappling advantages he has will put him at ease too. Whoever lands big first will win this fight, but Garbrandt’s volume and variety of strikes should see him do enough to get a really necessary win.
PICK – Cody Garbrandt via Decision

ufc 285: jones vs gane – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 285: Jones vs Gane – Early prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the T-Mobile Arena for the return of the GOAT, as Jon Jones finally makes the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight to compete for the title against Ciryl Gane.

Jones is the consensus GOAT in MMA, but hasn’t fought in three years. He’ll take on Gane in the main event at heavyweight to crown the new undisputed champion, after Francis Ngannou left the company while still holding the belt.

In the co-main event we’ll also see Valentina Shevchenko defend her flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso, while household names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cody Garbrandt, Bo Nickal and Ian Garry also feature on the card.

Last time we predicted a whole card was UFC 284, and we went 8/12 on the night with two perfect picks (not including the draw) to move to 837/1299 (64.43%) with 342 perfect picks (40.86%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.

Esteban Ribovics (11-0) vs Loik Radzhabov (16-4-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

Two UFC debutants open up the card in a fun lightweight bout. Ribovics is an undefeated fighter who has a 100% finish rate, with those split pretty evenly at six knockouts and five submission wins. Radzhabov has won three of his last four, including a win over Zach Zane in Eagle FC most recently via first-round submission.

Ribovics is an explosive fighter with fantastic power and an aggressive mindset, using lots of volume and constantly coming forward. His takedown defence isn’t the greatest, but he uses a kimura from the bottom very well offensively. As for Radzhabov, he’s a suffocating grappler with fantastic wrestling and a smothering top game. He has had some cardio issues in the past too, but his experience should see him get the edge here.

Ribovics has only been in the cage for a little over 2 minutes in the last three years, so there could be a bit of rust but there could also be some great improvements that we haven’t seen yet. The experience of grappling should see him safe from the kimura, and he should be able to control enough on the ground to claim the win.
PICK – Loik Radzhabov via Decision

Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4-1) vs Farid Basharat (9-0) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

A banger in the bantamweight division up next. Blackshear earned a draw in his UFC debut last time out against Youssef Zalal, which snapped a four-fight win streak. Basharat is an undefeated fighter, who earned a UFC contract with a decision win on the Contender Series back in September 2022.

Blackshear is a wrestler who has okay striking and decent choke submission skills on his resume, but this is a tough outing for him. Basharat is a fluid striker with excellent footwork, solid low kicks, great speed and cardio for days. It seems to me the only way he loses this fight is if his as-yet untested takedown defence is awful.

He’s well-rounded though and mostly is able to move in and out and land lots of strikes while accumulating damage and avoiding receiving any. He seems like the far more complete fighter of the two, so Basharat should claim a lopsided decision win.
PICK – Farid Basharat via Decision

Jessica Penne (14-7) vs Tabatha Ricci (7-1) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Baby shark returns to the cage to take on a veteran in this one. Penne saw a two-fight win streak, including an armbar win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 265, snapped last time out against Emily Ducote. Ricci on the other hand has won her last two in a row, beating Maria Oliveira and then Polyana Viana most recently.

Both these women are at their best when grappling on the inside, with Penne using her wrestling and Ricci trying to use her judo to win fights. Ricci is also a decent striker from range, using her reach and length to jab before looking to instigate the grappling. Penne will certainly try to grind her way to a win, but I think Ricci’s volume could be the difference.

Ricci has multiple avenues to takedowns and she’s more than capable of being able to grind out control on the ground and beginning to threaten with submissions. Penne has a size advantage which could help with her takedown attempts, but I’m going with youth on the scorecards on this occasion.
PICK – Tabatha Ricci via Decision

Mana Martinez (10-3) vs Cameron Saaiman (7-0) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Banger at bantamweight up next once again. Martinez has won four of his last five, with his only defeat in that run coming via decision against Ronnie Lawrence. He bounced back from that with a split decision win over Brandon Davis back in October. Saaiman is undefeated and claimed a win in his UFC debut last time out, knocking out Steven Koslow at UFC 282 back in December.

Both of these are in the sport to scrap, straight up. Both guys bring the violence in their fights, with Martinez having some terrifying power in his hands that have earned him eight knockouts from his ten career wins. Saaiman is a constant whirlwind of attacks who is more than happy to get hit to land out two himself. Defensively he leaves himself open a bit which should encourage Martinez to land one of those nasty shots he loves.

However, the same should have been said about Martinez’s fights against Guido Cannetti and even Ronnie Lawrence, except he just simply didn’t look anywhere near convincing. Saaiman’s style is suffocating, and he will step forward to cause as much damage as possible. Martinez has the opportunity the put his lights out throughout the rounds, but ultimately I expect he’ll fail to pull the trigger once again and Saaiman’s accumulative damage will earn him the win.
PICK – Cameron Saaiman via Knockout, Round 3

Ian Garry (10-0) vs Song Kenan (18-6) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A very intriguing welterweight scrap closes out this section of the card. Garry is undefeated and has shone in his three UFC performances so far, claiming a KO over Jordan Williams before decision wins against Darian Weeks and Gabriel Green most recently. Kenan on the other hand comes into this having gone 2-2 in his last four, with losses to Alex Morono and Max Griffin and wins over Derrick Krantz and Callan Potter.

Garry is a really talented striker on the feet, with excellent kicks and brilliant hand speed to go with some power and countering instincts. Kenan is a bit of a bulldozer, coming forward and winging big punches in the hope that they land to put someone’s lights out while relying on his chin. Garry also has some really good grappling skills on the mat, and Kenan’s defensive grappling and takedown defence is quite clearly the biggest hole in his game.

Machado has looked good in his fights so far, but people are likely expecting a little bit more from him at this point. This is a chance for him to put on a show using his entire skillset and really make a statement, and I think a big knockout win awaits.
PICK – Ian Garry via Knockout, Round 2