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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Main card predictions

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The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here and then moving on to the rest of the prelims here, we move on to the main card now.

Marvin Vettori (18-6-1) vs Roman Dolidze (12-1) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Interesting middleweight scrap between two guys looking to get into title contention at some point in 2023. Vettori has lost two of his last three fights, dropping decisions against Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, with a dominant win over Paulo Costa in the middle of them. Dolidze has gone on a run since switching to middleweight and is on a four-fight win streak with KO’s in each of his last three against Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson.

Vettori is the ultimate grinder when it comes to wrestle-boxing, with a crazy gas tank and excellent takedowns to go with great pressure and some powerful striking on the feet. Dolidze is also a grappler who has got excellent wrestling, but he’s recently discovered new power in his hands and is starting to fall in love with his striking. Realistically though, that striking is the main reason he could win this.

Dolidze has the power to put anyone out, but Vettori has got one of the better chins in the division and he’s one of the bigger middleweights in the division too. Expect pressure to force Dolidze backwards and big blitzes against the cage while mixing in takedowns and top control to earn a big decision win and keep his title aspirations alive.
PICK – Marvin Vettori via Decision

Jennifer Maia (20-9-1) vs Casey O’Neill (9-0) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A fun flyweight fight up next for the women, where a new contender could be created. Maia has lost three of her last five, dropping decisions to Valentina Shevchenko, Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot while she claimed wins over Jessica Eye and most recently Maryna Moroz. O’Neill is undefeated and shining in the UFC, with a win over Roxanne Modafferi over a year ago last time out via decision which ended a four-fight finishing streak.

Maia is a a grappler, living up to the surname despite no relation to Demian, with excellent jiu-jitsu skills to go with some decent boxing. O’Neill on the other hand is a bit of a phenom with solid wrestling to go with powerful kickboxing skills and a rare finishing instinct among female fighters. If she wants to win this, her best and safest bet is to be on top controlling the position because Maia does have power.

She’ll be severely tested in this fight and this is the best opponent she has had, but O’Neill is a future champion in my eyes and I can see her overcoming this test in an impressive fashion on the scorecards.
PICK – Casey O’Neill via Decision

Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1) vs Bryan Barbarena (18-9) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A fan-friendly scrap next in the welterweight division. Nelson has lost two of his last three fights, but they’ve come over a span of four years, with losses to Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns in 2019 before a return to the win column last time out against Takashi Sato in 2022. Barbarena was on a three-fight win streak including a TKO win against Robbie Lawler before he ran into Rafael Dos Anjos last time out and got submitted back in December.

Nelson is a fantastic grappler with a karate-like style when it comes to striking. His jiu-jitsu is fantastic and his wrestling to get it there is more than good enough too, while his striking is powerful and accurate. Barbarena on the other hand is an absolute brawler with fantastic power in his boxing combinations, while he is also capable of wrestling himself into dominant top positions too. If he is to be successful here though, he will want this fight on the feet.

On the ground Nelson has a huge advantage and he will be trying to get it there at all costs. As for Barbarena, if he can defend the takedown attempts and make it ugly (like he usually does) then the pick has to be “Bam Bam” to land clean enough to score a knockout win with his gas tank never letting him down either.
PICK – Bryan Barbarena via Knockout, Round 2

Justin Gaethje (23-4) vs Rafael Fiziev (12-1) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

The fight of the night and potentially the fight of the year stylistically in the co-main event. Justin Gaethje comes into this one off the back of a defeat in his title fight to Charles Oliveira, which he earned with a stunning win over Michael Chandler prior to that. Fiziev on the other hand is on a tear in the lightweight division, on a six-fight win streak including stoppage wins over Brad Riddell and Rafael Dos Anjos most recently.

Gaethje is one of the most heavy-handed brawlers in the history of the UFC, with incredible power in his boxing combinations and a willingness to take one to give one with great trust in his chin. He also has some of the most gruesome leg kicks in the business. Fiziev is a stunning striker himself, with brilliant Muay-Thai combinations and clinch work to go with nasty body kicks and brilliant power in his boxing too. This one won’t go the distance and it’s all about who can get hit the least hard. Simple, because there is no chance of Gaethje using his excellent wrestling skills as he just doesn’t care for it.

Fiziev’s quality of strikes and range management is fantastic, but Gaethje pushes a crazy pace and just beats everyone up if they don’t wrestle him to the mat. He will close the distance, land heavy punches and no doubt he will hurt Fiziev at some point. Fiziev is just as capable of countering with his great speed and accuracy, but the big-fight experience and one-punch power of Gaethje leans me to go in his favour.
PICK – Justin Gaethje via Knockout, Round 2

Leon Edwards (20-3) vs Kamaru Usman (20-2) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

An incredible main event will decide the winner of this trilogy bout and the undisputed welterweight champion of the world. Edwards is on an 11-fight undefeated streak, which culminated with a crazy head-kick knockout win over Usman to win the title. Usman was on a 19-fight win streak before that bout, and cemented himself as one of the greatest of all-time. Both of these men’s last loss was to each other.

Edwards is a really complete fighter who prefers to lead with the striking, as a world-class kickboxer with good knockout power. He’s also a solid grappler too, as he showed in their last fight against each other when he controlled the first-round on the mat. Usman is a dominant wrestler with fantastic control and technique in the grappling, but he’s also evolved his striking game to become a genuine knockout threat too. This is a crazy fight.

Usman largely controlled the fight the last time out and was 3-1 up heading into the fifth round, which he was also winning before the head-kick. But after getting stopped like that, things can change. Edwards’ confidence is sky high and he showed he is capable of hanging with Usman in the grappling as well as the striking. There is no altitude problems this time around which is what he credited to his cardio issues either, but it’s so hard to pick against Usman when it’s so evident that he can control where this fight goes with his wrestling.

I really want Edwards to get it done, but I can’t pick against Usman with the way the last fight went up until that haymaker kick with seconds to go.
PICK – Kamaru Usman via Decision

ufc 286: edwards vs usman – prelims predictions
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Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Prelims predictions

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The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims here, we move on to the rest of the prelims here.

Lerone Murphy (11-0-1) vs Gabriel Santos (10-0) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A real banger in the featherweight division in a short-notice fight up next. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC and has won his last three in a row, KO’ing Ricardo Ramos and Makwan Amirkhani with a decision win over Douglas Silva de Andrade in the middle. Santos is an undefeated fighter with seven finishes from his ten fights and is the current LFA featherweight champion.

Murphy is an all-round demon when it comes to the fight game with terrific wrestling and super powerful striking too. In fact, he seems to be better everywhere than Santos, but the Brazilian has got plenty of pressure and heart to keep going and the confidence of having never been beaten before. The one weeks’ notice is a big issue though.

Murphy hasn’t fought for almost 18 months after he was hit by a car while cycling, and if that health scare took a lot out of him then Santos has a chance. But if this is the same Murphy we’ve all come to know in recent years, he should have enough to get a stoppage win.
PICK – Lerone Murphy via Knockout, Round 2

Muhammad Mokaev (9-0) vs Jafel Filho (14-2) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

The hottest prospect in the flyweight division is back and takes on a Contender Series graduate in this one. Mokaev is 3-0 in the UFC after submitting Cody Durden and Malcolm Gordon while dominating Charles Johnson to a decision win too. Filho makes his UFC debut on a five-fight finishing streak, including a knockout win over Roybert Echeverria back in September.

Mokaev is one of the very best grapplers we have from the UK, with unbelievable wrestling skills to go with dangerous jiu-jitsu skills and some decent striking too. Filho is a very good submission artist with some decent power too, but he’s a level or two below where Mokaev is right now to put it simply.

Filho has the ability to catch Mokaev with a sneaky submission, but “The Punisher” is very good at staying safe and controlling his opponents. Expect that for long spells before he gets more aggressive late on and lands his own submission win to make a statement again.
PICK – Muhammad Mokaev via Submission, Round 3

Sam Patterson (10-1-1) vs Yanal Ashmoz (6-0) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very interesting lightweight scrap up next between two guys making their UFC debuts. Patterson shone on the Contender Series with a solid submission win last time out, while Ashmoz is undefeated and makes the move over from the PFL for his first fight in exactly one year.

Patterson is a fighter who relies a lot on his cardio to get him through tough moments, with some excellent submission skills and lengthy striking technique because of his size. Ashmoz is a grinder who has a bit of everything, but there are a few levels between these fighters and the way they can execute a game plan.

The likelihood here is that Ashmoz is competitive early on before Patterson starts to piece him up on the feet, then shoots for a takedown too eagerly and leaves his neck exposed for Patterson to secure one of his trademark guillotine wins.
PICK – Sam Patterson via Submission, Round 2

Chris Duncan (9-1) vs Omar Morales (11-3) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

A very fun lightweight fight up next with yet another hometown fighter in the red corner. Duncan has won his last two in a row including a first-round KO win on the Contender Series last time out back in August, while Morales has lost three of his last four to Giga Chikadze, Jonathan Pearce and Uros Medic most recently.

Duncan is a striker with great power, but a real lack of defensive nous and a greater lack of speed leaves him with plenty to be desired. Morales steps into this fight on one month’s notice, and is an aggressive kickboxer with good power and technique too. He doesn’t have the grappling to be able to really make Duncan work, but this is an interesting fight.

On paper Duncan has the tools to win this, but Morales also has the ability to really outshine him and take a wide decision. I can’t see either man getting finished, and with a close fight expected I think Duncan will be able to do just enough to claim the win on the cards with his range, aggression and volume.
PICK – Chris Duncan via Decision

Jack Shore (16-1) vs Makwan Amirkhani (17-8) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A super fun fight to close out the prelims section of the card as Jack Shore makes his featherweight debut in this one. Shore lost his undefeated record to Ricky Simon most recently and opted to move up to continue his career, while Amirkhani has lost four of his last five including a TKO loss to Jonathan Pearce at UFC London in July last year in his last fight.

Shore is one of the most complete fighters to come out of the UK, with excellent wrestling and submission skills to go with powerful and technical striking. Amirkhani is very much a grappler with great submission skills, but his striking isn’t horrendous and he’s capable of mixing it in to secure takedowns. This is a good test for Shore moving up in weight, but he should have no problems here realistically.

He’s not out-sized despite the division change, he’s a fantastic grappler who is capable of more than holding his own on the mat and he’s by far the better striker. Amirkhani is notorious for having poor cardio too, so expect Shore to drag him into deep waters before getting a ground and pound finish somewhere in the middle round.
PICK – Jack Shore via Knockout, Round 2

ufc 286: edwards vs usman 3 – early prelims predictions
Fight Predictions, MMA

UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3 – Early prelims predictions

2 Comments

The UFC returns to the O2 Arena in London, England for a huge trilogy bout for the undisputed welterweight title as Leon Edwards defends his title for the first time against Kamaru Usman.

Edwards earned a stunning fifth round comeback win in their fight back in August, and now they run it back in a huge main event.

They’ll be anchored by 14 fights, including the co-main event between lightweight contenders Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev, as well as local stars like Jack Shore moving up to featherweight, Muhammad Mokaev, Lerone Murphy and Christian Duncan making his UFC debut.

Last time out at UFC Las Vegas we got the main event spot on to improve our percentages, and the last numbered card saw us go 12/14 with six perfect picks to move to 849/1313 (64.66%) with 348 perfect picks (40.99%). You can see our full pick history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims here.

Juliana Miller (4-1) vs Veronica Hardy (6-4-1) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight fight to open up the card with the women here. Miller earned a stoppage win on her UFC debut against Brogan Walker back in August, while Hardy was beaten in a move up to bantamweight in her last fight against Bea Malecki just over three years ago.

Miller is an excellent takedown artist with some really serious jiu-jitsu skills, but her striking is rather awkward and is a big hurdle for her if she wants to fly up this division. Hardy on the other hand is a decent submission artist herself, but her takedown defence is pretty shocking and her striking is not great too. But she has been away for three years and it’s possible that she has reinvented herself.

The likelihood of that though is highly unlikely, although she is only 27 years old. The most likely outcome here is that “Killer” Miller gets a takedown early on and just controls Hardy on the ground until either an opening for a submission pops up or the buzzer goes for the end of the round.
PICK – Juliana Miller via Decision

Jai Herbert (12-4-1) vs Ludovit Klein (19-4) – (Lightweight/155lbs)

An absolute banger of a striking fight in the lightweight division up next. Herbert has had an exciting time in the UFC but he’s been largely unsuccessful going 2-3, with a KO defeat to Ilia Topuria at UFC London in March last year before getting back to winning ways at the second UFC London card in July with a decision over Kyle Nelson. Klein on the other hand is on a two-fight win streak, with a split decision over Devonte Smith before a unanimous decision win over Mason Jones on that July London card himself.

Herbert is a fantastic boxer with great power in his hands, but his chin hasn’t proved to be the best so far and he seems to leave it hanging in the air quite a lot. Klein is a fantastic kickboxer with fearsome kicks in his arsenal and great power too, and he seems to be more durable and has better cardio since moving up from featherweight. Stylistically this is going to be a kickboxing match pretty much, and Klein is the far superior striker.

If Herbert can use his reach and pressure Klein he will have success, but he has never really been one to fight that way in the past so I expect the Slovakian “Mr Highlight” to get the job done and get the fans on their feet early on.
PICK – Ludovit Klein via Knockout, Round 1

Joanne Wood (15-8) vs Luana Carolina(8-3) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

Another women’s flyweight scrap up next. Joanne Wood was on the verge of a title shot before losing to Jennifer Maia, before victory over Jessica Eye. Since then she has lost three in a row though, dropping a decision to Lauren Murphy before being submitted by Taila Santos and Alexa Grasso. Carolina on the other hand was on a two-fight win streak after wins over Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez, before a spinning back elbow from Molly McCann last March knocked her unconscious and snapped that streak.

Wood is a really tidy all-round fighter, with some very solid striking and kicks as well as a decent submission game to go with some basic wrestling. Considering Carolina struggled with all of that against McCann, who is much smaller and nowhere near as technical as Wood, that’s a big problem. Carolina will walk forward and try to box, but I expect that Wood should still have too much for her.

Despite the fact she has lost four of her last five, none of them have been against average competition and Wood should still be far too good for Carolina. Expect a dominant decision win.
PICK – Joanne Wood via Decision

Jake Hadley (9-1) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-6) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An absolute banger in the men’s flyweight division up next. Hadley had been flying before suffering defeat in his official UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, but he bounced back with a submission win over Carlos Candelario back in November. Gordon was on a two-fight win streak before his UFC 280 fight with Muhammad Mokaev, where he was super competitive before being submitted by an armbar with 34 seconds remaining.

Hadley goes by the nickname “White Kong” because of his excellent grappling skills, but he’s also a more than capable boxer too. Gordon is a technical fighter who has good skills all-around, but nothing exceptional that really stands out. Gordon’s usual game plan sees him mix his striking with his wrestling and top control, so Hadley will have to be at his best defensively to ensure he doesn’t end up on his back.

I expect Hadley to use his boxing a lot more than usual and even mix in some of his own takedowns to essentially out Gordon Malcolm Gordon. He’ll have to be at his best to do it, but expect Hadley to get the nod on the cards in a competitive bout.
PICK – Jake Hadley via Decision

Christian Duncan (7-0) vs Dusko Todorovic (12-3) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

An absolute banger in the middleweight division between two powerhouses. Duncan makes his UFC debut as an unbeaten fighter with six finishes from seven fights, while Todorovic has won two of his last three including a knockout win over Jordan Wright most recently back in October last year.

Duncan is an elite striker with a super unorthodox style and off-beat rhythm, but incredible power with his taekwondo background. Todorovic is a power striker with heavy hands, but he often leaves his chin up in the air and sometimes has to mix in his wrestling to avoid a war on the feet.

But his wrestling isn’t very good and while Duncan’s takedown defence hasn’t been the best so far in his career, he has enough on the feet to catch Todorovic clean at some point in the early rounds to claim a statement win.
PICK – Christian Duncan via Knockout, Round 2