Tag Archives: UFC Long Island

UFC Long Island: Ortega vs Rodriguez – Main card predictions

The UFC heads to Long Island for a fight night event with a live crowd, as two featherweight contenders go head-to-head in the main event when Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.

A very solid card will see plenty of excellent fights, with the 145-pound eliminator bout right at the top of the card. We’ll also see the likes of Li Jingliang, Michelle Waterson, Jack Shore, Shane Burgos and Miesha Tate.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 58 we went 7/11 with two perfect picks, moving us to 656/1020 (64.31%) with 281 perfect picks (42.84%). You can check out our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims and then picking the rest of the prelims here, we move on to the main card now.


Lauren Murphy (15-5) vs Miesha Tate (19-8) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

An interesting flyweight bout that was rescheduled after a late cancellation off UFC 276. Murphy saw a five-fight win streak snapped when she challenged Valentina Shevchenko for the title in her last bout, getting dominated at UFC 266 for a KO defeat. Tate won on her UFC return against Marion Reneau, but was beaten last time out by Ketlen Vieira via decision.

Murphy is a great striker, no two ways about it. She’s a rangy fighter who looks to use her size to kick and hit strikes from distance, claiming eight wins via knockout in her career. She has just one KO win since 2016 though. Tate on the other hand is a bit of an all-rounder, but it’s her wrestling that separates her from other fighters and got her a world championship once upon a time. If she’s going to win this bout, then she’s got to work that wrestling to the best of her ability.

Tate is a dog, in the sense that she never gives in and is always persevering. Murphy is undoubtedly going to look to box and use her jab, but Tate will walk forwards until she gets her hands on her and as the naturally bigger fighter she shouldn’t struggle to get the fight down. Once it’s there, she’s in her own world and she should be able to dominate the fight. I don’t think she’ll be able to get the finish, but that advantage should be able to claim her the victory at the very least.
PICK – Miesha Tate via Decision

Shane Burgos (14-3) vs Charles Jourdain (13-4-1) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

An absolutely insane fight at featherweight between two of the division’s most exciting athletes. Burgos snapped a two-fight losing streak when he earned a decision over Billy Quarantillo at UFC 268, while Jourdain is on a two-fight win streak with a decision against Andre Ewell before submitting Lando Vannata last time out.

Burgos is a terrific boxer with superb hand speed and power as well as counter striking. He does however also get hit an awful lot and relies heavily upon his durability to get into all-out wars with his opponents. Jourdain is also someone who looks to get into wars to try and catch his opponents with his speed and power. This is going to be a war, no doubt about it.

Stylistically they’re very similar, but I do feel that Burgos is the more powerful and more technical striker. Jourdain has never been KO’d before in his career, but Burgos is the best fighter he’s ever come up against. With a big reach advantage to work with, I expect Burgos will use his jab effectively and be able to land first in the wild exchanges to be able to claim a FOTN bonus and a win on the judge’s scorecards.
PICK – Shane Burgos via Decision

Matt Schnell (15-6) vs Sudumaerji (16-4) – (Flyweight/125lbs)

A fun flyweight scrap between two top guys in the division up next. Schnell has picked up just one win in his last four, suffering a submission defeat to Brandon Royval in the first round back at UFC 274. Sudumaerji on the other hand has won three in a row, with a decision win over Zarrukh Adashev in his most recent bout back at UFC Fight Island 8 in January 2020.

Schnell is an excellent submission artist, with eight victories by way of tap out in his career. He’s a very good wrestler and has got solid striking too, but he struggles to mix things together which often leaves him in limbo. Sudumaerji on the other hand is a powerful striker with great footwork, but he struggles against takedowns and his grappling isn’t the best. These two are essentially polar opposites when it comes to fight styles.

I expect Sudumaerji will stay on the outside and use his striking skills while trying to maintain distance, while Schnell will look to close him down against the cage to get the fight into his submission world. The fact it’s orthodox vs southpaw means Sudumaerji’s striking will be even more at an advantage because his power strikes will have more space to land. With that, I think he should be able to push on past Schnell and higher up the rankings to claim an impressive win.
PICK – Sudumaerji via Knockout, Round 2



Li Jingliang (18-7) vs Muslim Salikhov (18-2) – (Welterweight/170lbs)

A very fun welterweight scrap up next. Li is seen as a top prospect in the weight class despite being 34, but got dominated by Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 267 before being choked out last time out. Salikhov is on a five-fight win streak, with his last three all coming via decisions.

Li is a powerful striker who has got explosive traits and also got solid grappling skills too, as proven in his five submission wins during his career. Salikhov on the other hand is one of the most skilled strikers in MMA history, although his volume and technique outweighs his power these days. This fight depends on which approach Li takes in all honesty, because he’s capable of going both ways.

Salikhov will strike no matter what. Li prefers to strike when he has the opportunity, but he will know that is a dangerous game against someone as skilled as “King of Kung Fu”. That means he could look to mix it up and use his grappling here and he will have a big advantage in that field. If he just chooses to strike he’ll probably lose, but I don’t expect that to be his game plan and he should be able to grapple enough to earn the win.
PICK – Li Jingliang via Decision

Michelle Waterson (18-9) vs Amanda Lemos (11-2-1) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

Considering the calibre of fight on show on this card, this co-main event is a little underwhelming. Waterson has lost three of her last four fights, with Marina Rodriguez claiming a decision against her last time out. Lemos on the other hand saw a five-fight win streak snapped last time out when she was submitted by Jessica Andrade in the first round.

Waterson’s nickname “The Karate Hottie” explains her style off the bat. She has a stand-up stance that keeps her distance and she likes to use kicks and manage distance well, but she’s also a pretty good grappler with decent wrestling skills in her back pocket. Lemos is a powerhouse striker on the feet, with seven wins in her career via KO who comes forward and knows she can end fights in an instant. This seems like quite a lopsided fight.

Lemos has a huge power advantage and will come forward with pressure plenty. Waterson will use her sidekick to try to maintain distance, but once Lemos gets past that she’s in danger. While I don’t think Waterson will be KO’d as she is pretty durable, Lemos is powerful enough to cause plenty of damage and keep the fight standing for the most part to claim a win.
PICK – Amanda Lemos via Decision

Brian Ortega (15-2) vs Yair Rodriguez (14-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

Fight of the night and one of the most exciting match ups of the year. Ortega has fought for the title in two of his last three fights and been dominated, with Alexander Volkanovski smashing him at UFC 266 in his last outing. He dominated the Korean Zombie in between those fights though at UFC Fight Island 6. Rodriguez saw a three fight unbeaten run snapped by Max Holloway last time out, in one of the best fights of 2021 at UFC Vegas 42.

Ortega is a lethal jiu-jitsu practitioner with some of the best submissions in the UFC, but his striking has improved massively in recent years and he’s now a confident boxer too. Rodriguez on the other hand is an incredible striker with some of the best kicks in the UFC, with incredible speed and power on the end of them. His grappling defence isn’t the greatest though, as Holloway showed by taking him down and controlling him in the last fight. Stylistically, this is undoubtedly an incredible close fight.

Both guys will be happy to stand and strike, and if that’s the case then Ortega will be in trouble. He has been out-struck a lot in his career but his boxing is decent and any kicks will give him the chance to catch them and take the fight to the ground. If the fight is to end via knockout then it’s more likely to be a Rodriguez win, but with Ortega’s sensational grappling skills he seems to have more paths to victory and that leans me towards him getting the fight down to the mat and finding “El Pantera”‘s neck eventually to claim an impressive win.
PICK – Brian Ortega via Submission, Round 3

UFC Long Island: Ortega vs Rodriguez – Prelims predictions

The UFC heads to Long Island for a fight night event with a live crowd, as two featherweight contenders go head-to-head in the main event when Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.

A very solid card will see plenty of excellent fights, with the 145-pound eliminator bout right at the top of the card. We’ll also see the likes of Li Jingliang, Michelle Waterson, Jack Shore, Shane Burgos and Miesha Tate.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 58 we went 7/11 with two perfect picks, moving us to 656/1020 (64.31%) with 281 perfect picks (42.84%). You can check out our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims, we pick the rest of the prelims here.


Bill Algeo (15-6) vs Herbert Burns (11-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)

A fight put together on short notice after both of their opponents fell out last week. Algeo has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights, claiming a win over Joanderson Brito most recently at UFC Vegas 46. Burns on the other hand saw a five-fight win streak snapped last time out, getting KO’d by Daniel Pineda at UFC 252. This is his first fight in almost two years.

Algeo is a wild striker who has volume, speed and power and tends to put on entertaining fights without even trying just because that’s where he thrives. Burns on the other hand is a big featherweight who has okay striking, but his jiu-jitsu is world class and a whole other level to most 145-pounders in the world. That’s a problem for Algeo.

Everyone who has ever tried to take Algeo down in a fight has succeeded at some point, and while he did well against Ricardo Ramos on the ground to avoid danger that isn’t Burns. Burns’ cardio is a problem because of his weight cut so anything past the first round could be an issue with Algeo’s volume. But if he gets the fight to the ground with enough time to work, he will eventually find Algeo’s neck. It’s tough to call, but Algeo’s ability to go for three rounds means I lean towards him getting the win.
PICK – Bill Algeo via Decision

Ricky Simon (19-3) vs Jack Shore (16-0) – (Bantamweight/135lbs)

Arguably the fight of the night outside of the main event, and somehow it’s on the prelims of this card. Simon is on a four-fight win streak, KO’ing Raphael Assuncao in his most recent fight back in December. Shore is an undefeated fighter who has gone 5-0 in the UFC, with an entertaining back and forth fight ending in a decision win over Timur Valiev at UFC London back in March.

Simon is a pure wrestler, with great forward pressure before changing levels and looking to chain takedowns together to dominate on the ground. He has excellent control and ground and pound abilities, and is a decent submission threat too. Shore on the other hand is a really well-rounded fighter who prefers to strike but can more than hold his own in the grappling. Stylistically this is a very similar fight to Shore vs Valiev.

Simon definitely has the wrestling advantage and will have no problem going to the well over and over again to find success, but his chin has been shaky in the past. Shore isn’t a monster striker by any means, but he’s accurate and has enough about him to have earned four KO’s in his career on top of eight submission wins. It will be highly entertaining and I expect the same result as London, with Shore’s power punches enough to catch the eye.
PICK – Jack Shore via Decision



Punahele Soriano (8-2) vs Dalcha Lungiambula (11-4) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

A banger between two heavy handed middleweights in this one. Soriano has lost each of his last two, dropping decisions to Brendan Allen and Nick Maximov, while Lungiambula has lost three of his last four including his last two after losing on the cards to Marc-Andre Barriault before being submitted by Cody Brundage last time out.

Soriano is a solid wrestler with a power left hand, but his overall skillset is pretty predictable. He’s as durable as anyone in the division, while he mixes up his attacks well but the level isn’t that high. For Lungiambula, something just isn’t clicking. He’s got immense judo, great athleticism and is a powerhouse but just simply can’t put it all together. His cardio tends to fail him too and with his boxing so poor, it makes this a really tough match up for him.

He can’t out-grapple Soriano, he’s unlikely to be able to outbox him and if they go power shots heavy then his cardio will let him down. I expect the mix of attacks from Soriano to be able to hold out for the full 15 minutes and eventually he should be able to land that big left hand to really hurt Lungiambula and collect a stoppage win for the eighth time in his career.
PICK – Punahele Soriano via Knockout, Round 3

UFC Long Island: Ortega vs Rodriguez – Early prelims predictions

The UFC heads to Long Island for a fight night event with a live crowd, as two featherweight contenders go head-to-head in the main event when Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.

A very solid card will see plenty of excellent fights, with the 145-pound eliminator bout right at the top of the card. We’ll also see the likes of Li Jingliang, Michelle Waterson, Jack Shore, Shane Burgos and Miesha Tate.

Last time out at UFC Vegas 58 we went 7/11 with two perfect picks, moving us to 656/1020 (64.31%) with 281 perfect picks (42.84%). You can check out our full picks history here.

We’ll look to improve on that here, starting with the early prelims.


Jessica Penne (14-6) vs Emily Ducote (11-6) – (Strawweight/115lbs)

A fu women’s strawweight fight opens up the card between a UFC vet and a debutant. Penne is on a two-fight win streak, earning a split decision over Lupita Godinez before an armbar submission win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 265, while Ducote comes into the UFC on a three-fight win streak from Invicta.

Penne is a solid grappler who looks to tie her opponents out and drag them down to the mat to work her submission game, something she’s won fights with on eight different occasions. Ducote is the opposite, a brilliant counter striker with good power with four of her last five victories coming inside the distance. Both fighters like to close the distance, and it comes down to who can implement their game more effectively.

Ducote will look to avoid the clinches and land her excellent right to make up for the reach and height disadvantage in this bout, but Penne is pretty durable and if she can get hold of Ducote she has a good advantage with the grappling. With that said though, Ducote is a decent grappler herself and she is the more mobile and active fighter. So long as she doesn’t end up on her back for the majority of the round, she should be able to claim a win on the scorecards here.
PICK – Emily Ducote via Decision

Dwight Grant (11-5) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (13-4) – (Middleweight/185lbs)

Middleweight scrap up next between two guys on losing streaks. Grant has been beaten in each of his last two, dropping a split decision to Francisco Trinaldo and getting KO’d by Sergey Khandozhko, while Stoltzfus got beaten by Kyle Daukaus at UFC 255 and then got submitted by Rodolfo Vieira and most recently Gerald Meerschaert.

Grant is a striker with great power, but a real lack or urgency and volume has cost him massively in his UFC career to date. He is moving up to middleweight for the first time in a decade for this bout. Stoltzfus is a strong wrestler and his top control is good, usually using leg kicks and a jab before changing levels.

If Stoltzfus just sticks to what he knows, he should win this fight. He’s by far the better wrestler of the two, with Grant giving up at least one takedown in six of his last seven fights. He’s now up against bigger guys which means his power is less likely to help him out of bad situations and being taken down is more likely, so it doesn’t look good for him here.
PICK – Dustin Stoltzfus via Decision



Dustin Jacoby (17-5-1) vs Da Un Jung (15-2-1) – (Light Heavyweight/205lbs)

An intriguing light heavyweight clash up next between two guys who haven’t tasted defeat since 2015. Jacoby has won seven of his last eight fights, with one draw in the middle. His last three fights ended in victory, with a KO against Darren Stewart before decision wins over John Allan (UFC 268) and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Jung is undefeated in his last 15 fights, with a draw against Sam Alvey (UFC 254) stopping him being on a big win streak. He beat William Knight and then KO’d Kennedy Nzechukwu in his most recent fights.

Jacoby is a terrific kickboxer with great mobility and speed in his strikes. His low kicks are lethal and he’s able to manage distance brilliantly, while his takedown defence is pretty solid too. Jung is a powerful striker, but he’s a grinder who looks to close distance and use his power to rag doll opponents. Jacoby is really difficult to hold down though, and in the striking realm Jacoby has a big advantage.

Jung tends to be very flat-footed and predictable with his strikes, something Jacoby will undoubtedly take advantage of. He’ll whip those low kicks in and jab Jung’s face off all night if he has to, until the opportunity presents itself to land power strikes. Jung doesn’t have much more going for him in this one, so I expect Jacoby to piece up the legs and eventually land a hammer blow in the latter rounds to claim a win.
PICK – Dustin Jacoby via Decision