The UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena for International Fight Week and UFC 290 for a huge card, headlined by the featherweight title unification bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez.
The co-main event is a flyweight title fight between men who have fought twice before as the champion Brandon Moreno looks to get his first win over Alexandre Pantoja.
We’ll also see a huge middleweight scrap between Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis, while Robbie Lawler makes the walk for the final time against Niko Price and Bo Nickal returns too.
Last time we picked an entire card was UFC 289 where we went 6/10 with three perfect picks to move to 878/1361 (64.51%) with 357 (41%) perfect picks. You can see our full pick history here.
We’ll look to improve on that here and after starting with the early prelims then moving on to the rest of our prelim picks, we finish up with the main card picks here.
Bo Nickal (4-0) vs Val Woodburn (7-0) – (Middleweight/185lbs)
An interesting middleweight bout up next in a short-notice bout to open the main card. Nickal is 4-0 professionally and claimed a dominant win in his UFC debut against Jamie Pickett last time out, while Woodburn makes his debut on five-days’ notice as an undefeated fighter.
Nickal has an argument to be the best wrestler in the entire UFC with his background in the collegiate program, and his Brazilian ju-jitsu game to go with it makes him incredibly dangerous. Woodburn is a powerhouse of a 185-pounder with five knockout wins to open his career, but this is a very big step up in competition compared to anything he has ever fought before.
Woodburn needs to keep the fight standing for as much as possible and use his counter-striking and power to land flush. But the likelihood is that Nickal gets hold of him early, drags him down and has his way with him on the mat en route to another first-round finish via choke.
PICK – Bo Nickal via Submission, Round 1
Jalin Turner (13-6) vs Dan Hooker (22-12) – (Lightweight/155lbs)
A banger in the lightweight division up next between two hopeful contenders looking to break into the top ten. Turner has won five of his last six, suffering defeat to Mateusz Gamrot most recently on the judge’s scorecards. Hooker has lost four of his last six but earned a dominant win over Claudio Puelles last time out on his return to 155-pounds via a second-round knockout.
Turner is an awkward lightweight because he stands at 6ft 3 and has fantastic striking skills, but he’s also a really good grappler with solid takedown defence to match. Hooker is a kickboxer by trade and naturally stands in front of his opponents looking to trade, although he has shown he has the ability to wrestle if he needs to.
This is going to be a really tough fight for Hooker though. He’ll look to stay on the outside and kick the legs while countering on the inside, but Turner is the more powerful and explosive of the two and he has plenty of experience at this level also. Hooker’s chin has shown some hints of cracking recently, although the weight-cut probably didn’t help against Arnold Allen, but don’t be surprised to see Turner get a statement stoppage.
PICK – Jalin Turner via Decision
Robert Whittaker (25-6) vs Dricus Du Plessis (19-2) – (Middleweight/185lbs)
A title eliminator bout in the middleweight division up next. Whittaker has lost only twice since 2014, both times in title fights against Israel Adesanya and he remains unbeaten at 185-pounds outside of those bouts. Most recently he dominated Marvin Vettori to a decision win. Du Plessis on the other hand has won five-in-a-row in the UFC with five finishes, knocking out Derek Brunson most recently.
Whittaker is a near-perfect mixed martial artist with unbelievable kickboxing skills, excellent wrestling and world-class distance management. Du Plessis is a bit more wild and is more of a brawler, but he has got great power in his hands and excellent cardio. He’s also shown some great wrestling offensively and defensively in recent fights. Both fighters know that a win will see them face Adesanya in a title fight next, so the stakes are high.
In a shame for most fans, it’s hard to see how Whittaker loses this fight. Stylistically he is a nightmare for Du Plessis because he is constantly moving, stabbing at his opponents with kicks and jabs and he’s happy to play for the points victories – his last finish came against Jacare Souza back in 2017. He’s been hit a lot in the past and hurt, but he always seems to come out on the other side of it and I expect him to do the same again here to claim a decision win and set up a trilogy with Adesanya that nobody really wants to see.
PICK – Robert Whittaker via Decision
Brandon Moreno (21-6-2) vs Alexandre Pantoja (25-5) – (Flyweight/125lbs)
A magnificent flyweight title fight up next in what will be a trilogy bout unofficially between the two fighters. Moreno is coming off a quadrilogy with Deiveson Figueiredo where he went 2-1-1, and beat Kai Kara-France to win the interim belt in the middle of that. Pantoja on the other hand has won his last three-in-a-row, stopping Alex Perez in 91 seconds last time out.
Moreno is a very well-rounded fighter with excellent boxing and some nasty submission skills on the mat to go with his much improved wrestling over the years. Pantoja is very similar stylistically but probably more technical, and he has beaten Moreno twice before (via submission TUF in 2016 and via decision in the UFC in 2018). Moreno is the more aggressive fighter and there is no doubt that he is better than he was back then.
But sometimes fighters just have the number of their opponents and that could be the case here. Pantoja is a crisp boxer with strong kicks and can more than hold his own when it comes to the ground game, so it’s down to Moreno not to get sucked in to a battle of egos. Moreno looks like the better flyweight and his championship experience could help him, so I think “The Assassin Baby” gets his win back in blood with a knockout finish.
PICK – Brandon Moreno via Knockout, Round 4
Alexander Volkanovski (25-2) vs Yair Rodriguez (15-3) – (Featherweight/145lbs)
The best fight of the night is the main event with the featherweight title on the line. Volkanovski saw his 22-fight win streak snapped by Islam Makhachev in his pursuit of double-champ status last time out, but he remains undefeated at 145-pounds in the UFC heading into his fifth title defence. Rodriguez comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak having beat Brian Ortega due to injury,before submitting Josh Emmett to win the interim title.
Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound number one in the world and stylistically it shows, with world class striking and and grappling to go with his world class cardio and fight IQ. Rodriguez is one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC with unbelievable kicks and power, but he’s also very dangerous in the grappling as he showed against Emett to prove he’s a threat everywhere.
Rodriguez is the better striker and can use his kicks to try and control the distance and pace of the fight. But Volkanovski is a master of pushing the pace and implementing his game place, so expect him to mix up his attack to find takedowns, use ground and pound and then use his boxing on the feet. It’s going to be closer than many people are expecting, but Volkanovski is the best for a reason and I don’t think his reign ends just yet.
PICK – Alexander Volkanovski via Decision
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